Roberts Will be Confirmed With 70+ Votes. Disagree?

[tritsofme]

I would bet my last dollar that Judge Roberts will end up getting at least 70 votes in the Senate.

All this talk of a filibuster or even outright rejection of Roberts seems ridiculous to me.

He seems as though he is eminently qualified for the job, with service in ranking positions in the Attorney General and Solicitor General's offices in Reagan and Poppy's administrations.

Not to mention that while in private practice he argued before the Supreme Court 39 times.

He has also been serving on on 4th Circuit Court in DC (thought by many to the most important next to the SCOTUS) for two years, and was confirmed to that court by unanimous consent.

That being as it is, I see no way for us to argue in the Senate that Roberts is not qualified for the job, and all we have are ideological and philosophical differences with the man, and I don't even really believe that is a good enough reason to reject a nominee.

When speaking of blocking Roberts, remember that Scalia was confirmed by a vote of 98-0, and that Clarence Thomas won confirmation even in a Democratic Senate. Both of those justices seem to be much worse and much more ideological than Roberts is.

I see Roberts sailing through committee, some of our better senators will press him on issues such as Roe and stare decisis, but I doubt he will give much away.

Its for these reasons that I believe Roberts will get at least 70 votes for confirmation in the full Senate.

Now, does anyone have anything other than arguments based in emotion to disagree with me?

[BamaLefty]

1. He Gets 70+

Yes.

[bunny planet]

15. I predict 60 votes yea. Biden 'your the real deal' bankrupcy boy will be

one of them, and he thinks he's got a shot at the 2008 nomination.

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. Unless they can prove there is somethign truly wrong with the guy, I

imagine we are stuck with him.

[autorank]

3. Take a look, tell me what you think.

The main reason. This is emotional but persuasive in ways we can’t imagine. It crystallizes the insanity of our Iraq adventure and places Roberts in an anti soldier, anti Vet stance. Not cool.

|This explains why he’ll be Bolton-ized. Our guys do have long memories, FL2000, advising Jebbie how he can appoint Republican electors even if the recount shows Gore wins. Great guy for the court! NOT


A comprehensive explanation of fraud--text and key links

[wli]

4. I suspect under 70 but he'll pass

[Nite Owl]

5. Right now I would agree

that he at the least he would pass comfortably but there is more than a month until those hearings and lots of stuff that can still come out.

[Mikosmaxairitsas]

6. He'll get 60-65.

He'll take nearly all of the Republican votes, and possibly the conservative Democratic vote. I doubt he'll hit 70, though.

[punpirate]

7. Thomas was confirmed, as I recall...

... by only 52 votes.

Roberts is another matter--most of his work as an assistant Solicitor General was political--and his amicus curiae briefs were highly ideological in some instances.

Smarter senators will jump on some of his comments in those--including that Rove v. Wade was "wrongly decided." His anti-environmental judgments are another place to go after him.

He's got very little time as a judge--just a smidgen over two years--even O'Connor had more time than that as an AZ state court judge.

And, probably the most obvious thing not working in his favor right now is that his first confirmation hearings in committee did not go well. As I recall, he refused to answer several questions about his prior statements, and his nomination languished for two years. He ended up being confirmed in May, 2003 on a voice vote, because some people didn't want to admit they'd voted for him.

If he pulls the same routine in committee hearings this time, yes, I think could be subject to a filibuster, but, finally, no, I don't think that will last long--especially if Frist starts screaming about the nuclear option. I don't think there's enough gumption amongst Senate Dems to stand up to Frist on that.

My guess on a final vote? Anywhere from 55-45 to 62-38 or thereabouts. Lieberman's already made up his mind in favor, and so has Reid, I think. There will be a few others.

Of course, all that will depend in part upon how much heat these people get in the next month from Planned Parenthood, NARAL and NOW.

Cheers.

[tritsofme]

9. The 102nd Congress had 57 Democrats

which is also something to keep in mind when speaking of Thomas' confirmation.

Aside from getting the votes from all of the Democratic "gang of 14" members and all Republicans, I see Bayh, Baucus, Johnson, and Bill Nelson definitely voting for confirmation.

And most of this group as well: Conrad Dorgan Bingaman Jeffords Lincoln Obama and Reid.

I have already heard Republicans claiming that Ginsberg set a "precedent" in 1993 by refusing to answer many questions on she might rule in specific cases, so get ready to hear a lot about that in the next few weeks.

[sonicx]

10. not sure about other issues but...

She (Ginsberg) explicitly said she was pro-choice in the Senate hearings.

[punpirate]

12. Well, I see a qualitative difference between...

... answering questions on a purely hypothetical basis (which can be easily distorted), and refusing to answer questions about previous statements and legal opinions (the Bork defense), although it's certain the Repugs will try to confuse the two.

I'd really like to see the pro-choice groups go after the Democrats, though. The preliminary statements on Roberts from them aren't at all kind. This is NARAL's front page today:

http://www.naral.org/

Cheers.

[Robbins]

14. Democrats

Then they will have to live with the consequences he will cause on the court. Oh,and Bayh can kiss the Democratic nomination goodbye
If he votes to confirm. He won't survive till Iowa when the progressives get through with him for voting for a Anti Choice,Anti
Environmental,anticivilrights Justice.

[enough already]

25. Any Democratic voting in favor can kiss 2008 goodbye

That means you, Hillary and Biden.

[leyton]

8. I am of a similar mind.

I don't think that ideological differences - unless they are incredibly extreme, and I don't know much about Roberts yet - are enough to disqualify a nominee. And as you say he is obviously qualified.

[adarling]

11. Doesn't it bother anyone that this man has NO EXPERIENCE

He was a circuit judge for two years and that was it and they are appointing him to the high court. I know i am only 22 but there is something wrong there, THIS IS ALL THEY COULD FIND!! and why are the congressional democrats deciding to bend over and take it again, are they that weak?

[tritsofme]

13. Earl Warren was never a judge

And he was appointed Chief Justice.

I think he was the governor of California (shudder) before that.

And IMHO he was one of the most gifted jurists of our time, giving us rulings such as Brown and several other civil rights cases.

There are several instances throughout our history of senators and other public officials that weren't judges being named to the SCOTUS, so this type of appointment is not unheard of.

I find the fact that Roberts argued 39 cases before the Supreme Court to be extraordinary, and from what I have read so far, I haven't seen anything to suggest he is not qualified for the job.

[mike923]

37. Earl Warren's background

Executive at Southern Pacific Railroad, former District Attorney, was Dewey's Vice Presidential candidate, friend of Eisenhower. He is appointed to the Supreme Court and he turns out to be the Greatest Activist Justice in history and an Icon of Liberalism.

[Bluesplayer]

16. Nope

If he makes it out of committee, he'll be approved by unanimous consent, so the dems don't have to show their weakness quantitatively.

[enough already]

26. Can the Pukes insist on a roll call vote? n/t

[tritsofme]

38. Yes.

All one would have to do is object to the unanimous consent motion.

[Lecky]

17. Unless this guy has some serious skeletons I have no doubt he will be

Just because the man is a pro-life conservative is no reason he shouldn't be confirmed.

I say this as a pro-choice liberal btw...

[Singular73]

18. The guy doesnt bother me

This is the wrong fight to pick, IMO.

We all knew that Bush would pick a conservative.

Thank your favorite invisible man it wasn't one from the Radical Christian Right.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Suspect He Gets Eighty Plus Votes...

Scalia was confirmed 98-0....

That's all you need to know...

Clarence Thomas's confirmation is a poor guide to other confirmations....

Clarence Thomas had Anita Hill's harassment accusations hanging over his head and this gave opposing senators something to base their opposition on besides his ideology...

Thomas is the worst followed by Scalia and Rehnquist....


I think John Roberts will be like William Rehnquist with an amiable veneer....

Losing elections suck......

This is what you get....

[Pepperbelly]

20. I think it might be a good idea to see what the hearings reveal before ...

making predictions. At this point, I do not have enough data for more than a wild assed guess with no value at all.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I'm Willing To Go Out On A Limb ....

He was vetted by the Senate and the FBI prior to his appointment to the DC Circuit Court in 03....

I think he was confirmed by ninety plus votes or so....


So we do have some basis for making a judgement or prediction....

This is an easy one....

This is the consequences of losing elections...

[Pepperbelly]

22. Losing elections ...

certainly takes some options off the table.

There are several Senators I intend to watch: Kennedy, Harkin, Boxer, Schumer and Clinton. I am interested in their judgement on the nomination.

What will be even more significant is the judgements of the 7 Democratic Senators in the "Gang of 14". I have not yet heard their public pronouncements although I have heard that rat-bastard Graham from SC pule on and on and I suspect those slime-balls will not vote with the Democrats on a fillibuster because they were never sincere to begin with.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I'm Pretty Sober About This Nomination...

You or me would certainly not appoint him but unless there are major negative revelations about him I see him passing easily...

The fact that Scalia passed 98-0 should sober anybody....


He reminds me of every Republican corporate lawyer to come down the pike....

Shallow, materialistic, and amoral....

[djg21]

23. I think he'll get closer to 80!

[Totally Committed]

27. I will be paying attention to which Democrats

vote for him, and which ones don't show up for the vote.

I've made up my mind this is the first "litmus test" for whether or not I will vote for them for President, should they be the nominee instead of Wes Clark.

If they vote YEA, or they DON'T VOTE, they are automatically excluded from my consideration. I don't care who they are or how much I like them.

We have to start drawing the line somewhere.

TC

[Armstead]

28. Maybe, but it will be very wrong if it happens

"That being as it is, I see no way for us to argue in the Senate that Roberts is not qualified for the job, and all we have are ideological and philosophical differences with the man, and I don't even really believe that is a good enough reason to reject a nominee."

Ideological and philosophical differences of that extent are EVERY reason to oppose a nominee.

Any Democrats who are not willing to oppose this brand of pseudo-conservativism on those grounds are not worth spit.

It will be the nail in the coffin of two-party politics if Democrats quietly roll over because he is a "nice man" and qualified on paper, while overlooking the impact the Federalist Society philosophy will have on ordinary Americans and the disenfranchised.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Supreme Court Nominees From The Other Party

have been getting appointed and confirmed since the beginning of the republic....


I wouldn't appoint a heartless , corporate stooge to the highest court in the land but under our constitutional framework I see no alternative...

[Armstead]

30. Times change

The problem is that there is a concerted attack on EVERYTHING that has been accomplished since 1930, and part of the Republican stretegy to do that is by castrating the public's ability to protect the public interest and freedom.

If Democrats roll over for that instead of standing on principle, the whole notion of there being "another party" becomes meaningless.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. I Couldn't Agree More That The Nation Is Going Backwards...

I just don't see how we can prevent this nomination...

I go back to the Scalia nomination....

He was confirmed 98-0....

We need to start winning elections ...


I think America is a center right nation and by center right I mean a nation that tips slightly to the right not far right which is the direction Bush is taking us....

I think history and social science data bears my point of view out...

For instance I believe most Americans believe in a right to privacy and would be aghast that three and now possibly four justices don't share that view....

[Armstead]

33. Even if can't prevent, should strongly oppose

I disagree with you that the nation is "center right." Such labels don't really mean much, because it depends on the issue.

It is equally true to say the nation is basically center left. Liberal policies like Social Security, minimum wage, Medicare, envornmental protection, etc. are strongly supported by the mainstream. So are things like basic abortion rights.

Individually, people are often libertarian, in the "I just want to be left alone" sense. Many liberals fall into that category too. The pro-choice position on abortion, for example, is basically libertarian.

We all have to start thinking outside of the box about these things, and find ways to make clear that liberal and progressive positions are basically mainstream. That includes using things like the Supreme Court nomination process as educational exercises to show the real right-wing agenda.

It also means we should strongly advocate for the otehr side of those issues, instead of giving them perceived legitimacy by going along with them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. The Difference Between Center Left And Center Right Is A Small One

I think we can agree that America is more conservative than most of the western European democracies who have much more expansive welfare states...

And the concept of the "rugged individual" is much more enshrined here than in most of western Europe...

As far as the libertarian impulse I agree... I sometimes the feel the greatest right of all is to be left alone....

That being said I still don't see how we stop this appointment....


It's just a sad and unpleasant fact...

Perhaps folks will wake up and throw the theocrats out of office but I am not optimistic...

[alcibiades_mystery]

31. I say 64, but yes, about right

n/t

[election_2004]

34. I actually think it will be 90+ votes...

I think the only Democratic defectors to vote against him will be Boxer, Leahy, Kennedy, Kerry, and possibly Durbin and Obama.

[Bucky]

36. Put me down for 90+ If it was a secret ballot, 70. But once it hits 70+...

Once you get the vote up over 70, few Democratic senators are going to waste it on a protest vote. So you'll have no more than 8 senators dissenting on Roberts, whom most of them know as a nice guy. He's very well respected in Washington.