Fearless New Hampshire Prediction And What It Portends For The Road Ahead

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Order of Finish

1) Kerry

2) Dean

3) Lieberman

4) Edwards

5) Clark

6) Kucinich

7) Sharpton

This finish is devestating for the Dean camp* as the finish in Iowa was devestating for the Clark camp.... Wes Clark needed a a muddled Dean victory in Iowa to increase his chances... Well, Dean needs Edwards or Clark to finish strong in New Hampshire to become the primary southern challenger to Kerry in the souhthern primaries and siphon off votes.... If the Clark and Edwards campaigns collapse Dean and Kerry will be mano on mano in the south and that's a battle Kerry will win....

In short, if Edwards and Clark are knocked out tomorrow night and it becomes a Dean-Kerry race it's over....John Kerry will be the Democratic nominee...

*a couple of points of random points

my girlfriend is for john edwards....as a sane person I am for john edwards too though I like Kerry, Edwards, and Clark equally and all bring gifts and baggage to the table...in case you have to ask what I would do if my girfriend was for bush she wouldn't be my girlfriend....

Dean will not be able to spin a NH seconnd place showing into a win as did Clinton in 92 as Clinton was able to legitimately claim he lost New Hamsphire to the quasi favorite son-Paul Tsongas from neighboring Massachussetts...

The best outcome the Dean people could hope for is that Dean finishes second with Clark or Edwards a close third....

I am going to ralph if Lieberman comes in third for two reasons..Clark or Edwards could make political hay out of a third place showing while Lieberman can only say in a New England primary he came in third behind the two other New Englanders in the race...

[cthrumatrix]

1. Dean destroys Kerry "head to head"... issues based Dean with a

history of delivering results for a state, a small businessman..the only candidate delivered of healthcare .... debate would be a dream...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Campaign Are About Issues...

They are about personalities and biographies as well as issues and how the media frames them...

If the campaign was about issues there wouldn't be a simian in the White House...

[cthrumatrix]

3. true..i also think the more people see and hear Dean..the more they would

like..the more they see the difference.

[patricia92243]

9. Yes, they are about personalities & biographies-that is whyKerry's cancer

is going to make him lose in the general election- wake up people - get real - if you think this is bad, wait til the pubs use it - and lie about it- Do not put this man in as the nominee.

I don't care if he is A+ on the issues- he will lose to Bush because Bush will use Kerry's health against hi. We will not have anybody to blame but ourselves.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Geoege Bush Had Polyps Removed From His Colon

Polyps are potentially cancerous...


More people have died from colon cancer than from prostate cancer and doctors have given Kerry a clean bill of health...


Kerry is not without baggage but the prostate cancer is a cheap rap....

[isbister]

4. Lieberman won't finish that high

If the polls are right Dean's in trouble. He'll loose big in NH... realizing what, a 30 - 40+ point swing in the polls in ten days.

What the loss in Iowa and the scream did to the polls in the other states may be worse than getting second in NH. He was doing pretty darn great in AZ, OK, SC not so long ago and now ARG's 23rd-25th:

AZ OK SC
Kerry.....24% 17% 17%
Clark.....21% 23% 14%
Edwards...15% 18% 21%
Dean......10% 8% 9%
Lieberman..7% 10% 5%
Kucinich...0% 1% 1%
Sharpton...0% 1% 15%
Undecided.23% 22% 18%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

Iowa proved that you can throw all the money in the world at the voters but sometimes you just can't fix it.

A big Kerry win in NH would lift Kerry, hurt Dean more thanhe has been, and depending on where they finish in NH, it could hurt Clark and/or Edwards more than just losing some of their standing via Kerry's bounce.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. All I Know Is That If Clark and Edwards Finish Behind Lieberman

that's bad news for Dean...

[BootinUp]

6. If you're right (which I seriously doubt)

Then it will be much easier for me to not feel sorry for this party next November.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Like Wes Clark Alot As I Do John Edwards And John Kerry

but Wes Clark needs to finish third in NH to remain viable...


Yes...

If I rated the candidates by electability Clark would score the highest along with Edwards and followed somewhat closely by Kerry...

A Kerry candidacy means we are back to the "Inside Straight Flush" Electoral College strategy.... That is we must go in the race conceding most of the red states to * and hope we can hold all the blue states and "steal" one or two red states like NH, AZ, and OH....


Obviously an Edwards or Clark candidacy evens the playing field a bit more but a Kerry win is easier envisioned than a Dean or Lieberman win...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. dupe

[xultar]

15. Agreed n/t

[DemBones DemBones]

11. I think Edwards will be third or even second but

maybe there is "Joe-mentum" in NH. I'm hoping my man Dennis finishes 5th and one or two candidates drop out after NH.

I'll be interested to see if Dennis can get his message across here in the South. I think he can if people are paying attention to the pocketbook issues, and everyone should be doing so.

I love this statement from Kucinich (emphasis added):

"The national unemployment rate in December of 2003 was 5.7 percent, up from 4.1 percent in January 2001. We have lost nearly 3 million private sector jobs. In the third quarter of 2003, America's gross domestic product surged at a rate of 8.2 percent, and corporate profits grew at an annual rate above 40 percent. But during this same period, wages and salaries grew by less than 1 percent. When someone calls that a recovery, they're telling you more about themselves than about the economy.

http://www.kucinich.us/statements.htm#NHNAFTA

[mikehiggins]

12. Interesting outlook

I just have two comments on your theory.

I don't see Lieberman doing well anywhere. He may be successfully conducting a "stealth" campaign under the radar but it pretty much has to way down below. I suspect his numbers are hyped as it is, but I suspect most of the numbers are cooked, especially those on the cable networks.

In a primary in which 40% of the eligible voters aren't even in the sample, how do you produce a poll that means anything? History has shown that the only way to decide what the results in NH will be is to wait until the polls close and then start adding.

My second comment is this: who decides if a campaign is viable?

Generally speaking, a campaign stops being viable when supporters and financing disappear. Admittedly, it seems that we are short of our 2 million dollar goal at the moment ;^) but there doesn't seem to be a shortage of people making their $25, $50 and $100 donations. If you can raise almost $2million bucks in a week like that you have a pretty widespread base of support.

Ditto Dean.

If we can just hang on and keep on going, picking up a win here, a couple of delegates there, Clark will be viable until the convention. Admittedly Kerry can mortgage a couple of more mansions if he has to but it looks like it'll be the Four Horsemen of the GOP Apocalyse when the convention convenes. Four strong candidates confronting a failed administration. In a brokered convention I think Clark will walk away with the nomination.

Sounds good to me.

[dusty64]

13. Lieberman third,

I really hope that prediction is wrong. I'd like to see him leave the race ASAP, he brings nothing positive to the debate.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. Mass. and Vt. neighbors logically should be 1-2. No loss for Dean

battle is for third. Edwards or Clark. Also, for Kerry the battle is for a strong showing. 40% will be a blow out. 30% to a Dean 29% will effetcively negate Iowa momentum.
I'm hoping for a Kerry blow out because the regional primaries will be tough for him without more momentum.