Latest Zogby Kerry 31 Dean 28

[ringmastery]

Just saw it on the Today Show. Zogby is the ONLY poll that shows such a close race. I don't trust it.

[BootinUp]

1. If Kerry cannot put away Dean in NH

then it will seriously weaken him. IOW, he needs to beat Dean by more than 5 pts.

[Snivi Yllom]

37. A close Dean 2nd means the battle is on

and the primary will go long.

[SheilaT]

2. Depending on who you favor

the New Hampshire polls are notoriously unreliable.

[ringmastery]

3. more info

http://wireservice.wired.com/wired/story.asp?section=Breaking&storyId=817325&tw=wn_wire_story

In Monday's poll, undecideds who were leaning toward one candidate were factored into the totals, leaving three percent undecided. Without factoring the leaners in the totals, 13 percent of likely New Hampshire voters remain undecided.

[displacedtexan]

13. Plus...

the story is confusing. It seems to be centered on the last day of a 3 day tracking poll, which would mean it's based on a total of +/- 200 people, with the 13% undecideds factored in.
My SO is a demographer in DC and is appalled by the manipulation and outright deceit in media-sponsored polls.

[HereSince1628]

22. Changing methods at this point is just playing with us.

As an Arkansas friend used to say, "that's just not right."

[HFishbine]

27. Monday's poll?

Huh? They called people at five in the morning?

[ozone_man]

29. No, it's from the day before.

They just release the figures the next morning.

[robbedvoter]

4. Ruslut just said on Today that all polls are crap re: this poll

As if I needed his wisdom.

[patricia92243]

5. For Dean- Yippee, hurray, hallelujah and everything else good!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Didn't Zogby Also Predict We'd Hold The Senate....

That poll is contradicted by at least three other polls...


We'll see

He'll be revealed as either a sage or a charlatan.....


I hope he's just held to judgemnent whatever that judgement is...

As someone who has done post grad work in Poli Sci and relies on polling I hate to see the practice discredited....

[PurityOfEssence]

42. Georgia was stolen, Minnesota was won by murder

Zogby is probably the most dependable of the major polsters.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

47. dupe

[La_Serpiente]

7. I sometimes tend to think

that Zogby shows momentum, not so much as to who is winning or not.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. He Called 00 Right...

I'll give him his props but folks forget Harriss, Newsweek, and CBS got it right too....


He also called 02 wrong....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. dupe

[gristy]

8. Go Howard!

[mdmc]

9. Zogby predicted Iowa, too.

Big deal.

[adamrsilva]

21. The poll factored in undecideds leaning towards one candidate

But it's also the most recent poll, and let's not forget Zogby predicted Iowa.

[kstewart33]

10. Very curious

All other polls (ARG and USAT-Gallup for example) show Kerry holding his own. In the Gallup poll overnite, 56% said Kerry could beat Bush compared with 15% per Dean. Gallup has him 9 points ahead of Dean; the gap is wider on the ARG poll.

[ringmastery]

14. I think it's the methodology

he used for this poll. He pressured the "undecideds" to pick a candidate, who they leaned for and he included this in the poll. I'm guessing the majority of the undecideds are former Dean people scared off by the scream and they may be coming back to him.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. The Other Polls Push The Undecideds Too...

If he's way off NBC and MSNBC will have alot of egg on their face....

[cthrumatrix]

16. this is surprise...undecided vote...nobody knows for sure....good news

for Dean team.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. Too bad the London bookmakers are no longer influenced by Zogby

My friend in Ireland and I used to rejoice when Zogby came out with a ludicrous poll, and the odds tilted in that direction. Paid for plenty of summer golfing odysseys in Europe and my Infiniti.

Trust me, Zogby state polls are becoming a joke in those circles, reverse influence if any at all.

[WI_DEM]

18. here are the actual numbers from the Zogby site

Kerry 31%
Dean 28%
Clark 13%
Edwards 12%
Lieberman 9%

Dean is gaining with groups he once led with and is strong with young voters (18-29) and liberals. Kerry and Dean are duking it out for college grads.

http://www.zogby.com/

[adamrsilva]

24. This will be a very close race

My prection:

Kerry 31%
Dean 28%
Edwards 14%
Clark 13%
Lieberman 10%

[Snivi Yllom]

39. except it wont look like that

The final delgate count will look like this- total available=27 delegates

Kerry 12 44%
Dean 10 37%
Edwards 5 19%

The big shocker will be Clark not getting any delegates.

[Mobius]

19. Polls lie

They are a tool used by the press. I saw a FAUX poll a few days ago that had Clark at 2% . Come on! Iowa proves that polls are completely useless.

[cthrumatrix]

20. they are used as tolls...on purpose... our whole system is corrupt

[Monte Carlo]

23. I'm seeing a big disparity between these polls...

... when this one says there's a tight race and the ARG and others show a big lead for Kerry. At least one of them is not true. What's going on?

[isbister]

31. What's going on?

ARG, WMUR/UNH, Suffolk, CNN/Gallup, the Boston Globe and the Boston Herald are all claiming a decent to large leave for Kerry.

It is curious why Zogby all of the sudden decided to include leaners and then makes this comment:

Kerry leads in three out of four regions, in the first Congressional District, among Independents, all voters over 30 years of age, union members, Moderates, married voters, men and women. He and Dean battle over college educated voters.

One would think the margin of error would change if leaners were included.

There was a lot of speculation here recently about there being some sort of connection between Kerry's camp and Zogby. Maybe this is some sort of trick by Zogby to destroy Dean. If Zogby and the corporate media play up that Dean and Kerry are virtually tied and all of the other pollsters turn out to be correct... and Kerry beats Dean handily... then Dean will look terrible in the nation's eyes (especially if the media pushes the latest Dean surge and a Kerrry victory a day later)

[slinkerwink]

25. no wonder why Kerry's already attacking Dean....

[ozone_man]

26. These are my calculated daily polls.

_WE TH FR SA SU
D 22 22 22 25 37
K 31 36 26 28 39

I agree that it seems a bit odd, but considering the MOE, it is probably normal. Inany case, it looks like the race is tightening. Dean may pull out a win.

To check, you can compute the three day moving average and compare to Zogby.

http://www.zogby.com/

[kstewart33]

30. That Saturday to Sunday jump looks suspicious

For both candidates. Kerry went up 11; Dean went up 12. Very curious.

[ozone_man]

32. Saturday night was a big event in NH.

A lot of people made up their minds that night.

[markus]

33. Did you watch the N.H. event?

I don't think its surprising at all. I think the rac is coalescining into Kerry (Comfort Food for Uncertain Democrats, Easily Digestible for the Roosevelt and JFK generation) v. Dean (for the fired-up, anti-Bush, throw-the-bastards-out vote).

[SadEagle]

45. Methodology change.

Zogby started to push leaners, and incorporate that.

[WI_DEM]

38. your numbers make sence

because for a three day average to be 31-28 (and we know from Zogby what the numbers were on Friday and Saturday) then Kerry and Dean must have really spiked up on Sunday.

[HereSince1628]

43. OM have you tried to recreate the daily polls for the others?

I am wondering because your reconstruction of D and K numbers totals 76%. That leaves only 24% divided between 5 candidates.

Is any one of those followers above 15%? In another thread someone wrote (and I don't know if its correct) that there is also a 15% threshold for winning delegates in NH.

[israruth]

28. Suicide for Democrats to nominate Kerry

John Kerry voted for the Patriot Act, the No Chil Left Behind Act, the Iraq War, did not vote against the Medicare Act or against the omnibus spending bill which eliminated overtime pay for some workers. He has opposed increasing the minimum wage prompting Senator Kennedy to say that Kerry did not deserve to be called a Democrat.

Not only did Kerry refuse to oppose Bush Administration legislation he actually supported core Bush initiatives. This represents a shameful record of political cowardice.

The Democratic nominee should present a genuine alternative to Bush. Kerry has a record of abjectly appeasing Bush and has no credibility as a genuine alternative to Bush. There are much more credible candidates from which to choose.

There are many voters opposed to the policies of the Bush Administration - if Kerry is nominated, those voters will have no one to vote for.

[newyawker99]

34. Hi israruth!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[oasis]

40. Suicide for Democrats: not supporting the eventual nominee.

[LuminousX]

35. I agree, I don't really trust this poll

But again, as in Iowa, the closer you get to the event, the more difficult it is to get an accurate read. The tracking polls are slightly better because you can at least get a feel for the trend but the actual numbers are harder to nail down. This is due mainly because in the primaries, finding out who is actually going to vote is hard, and people are much more willing to switch votes among the selections offered. Switching a vote between one Democrat to another Democrat isn't as significant as switching from a Democrat to a Republican.

[Snivi Yllom]

36. Zogby also was the only one who showed the Dean collapse initially

lets see what the other pollsters show tonight and tomorrow.

Zogby also includes leaners.

[jenk]

41. why is Zogby propping up Dean

that's the real question, Zogby is so out in left field with these polls. He's on Hannity every day, probably getting direct orders from Rove to make this a close race so they can devour dean in November.

[cthrumatrix]

44. actually it was shared that NH is famous for "last minute" changes

and anything seems possible now....

[HereSince1628]

46. Is it last minute yet?

[bigtree]

48. Kudos to Gov. Dean's supporters for tightening the race

No matter what happens, all of the candidates have furthered the goal of unseating this pretender president.

Good luck and best wishes to all of the candidates and supporters! :toast: