Kerry: Forget the South

[ringmastery]

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/Politics/Vote2004/kerry_south_040126-1.html

Jan. 26 — Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., is discounting notions that any Democratic candidate would have to appeal to Southern voters in order to win the presidency, calling such thinking a "mistake" during a speech at Dartmouth College.

Kerry's remarks Saturday were so starkly antithetical to how many southern Democrats feel their party should campaign for the presidency, that a former South Carolina state Democratic chairman told ABCNEWS that Sen. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings, D-S.C., who endorsed Kerry last week, perhaps "ought to reconsider his endorsement."

[BootinUp]

1. Thats a gaffe if I ever heard one

I think he is going to be doing damage control over that.

[Loren645]

2. Oh great. The latest boner from Skull and Bones guy.

Write off the South!

[blm]

3. Point being the "South" shouldn't be a separate MINDSET for people.

He should campaign as who he is with a great resume and record of service and not pander.

You would prefer he talk about the Book of Job? Puhleeze.

[BootinUp]

8. Not the way I read it

It reads like he truly is saying he will win without any of the south.

[emulatorloo]

73. Dumb ABC Spin

from an article without wacky ABC spin
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/01/26/politics1351EST0647.DTL&type=printable

Snip

He said his message is resonating in all parts of the country, including the South and other areas in which Democrats have not won.

"The South is not a foreign country," he said. "If all they want to do in this campaign is throw labels around, they've got a problem."

Kerry said voters in all regions of the country respond to the same message of bolstering the economy and social justice. "What we need to do is go across this country and connect the dots for people," he said.

[emulatorloo]

74. The arrogance of ABC and Bush are going to bite them in the ass

from an article without wacky ABC spin
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/01/26/politics1351EST0647.DTL&type=printable

Snip

He said his message is resonating in all parts of the country, including the South and other areas in which Democrats have not won.

"The South is not a foreign country," he said. "If all they want to do in this campaign is throw labels around, they've got a problem."

Kerry said voters in all regions of the country respond to the same message of bolstering the economy and social justice. "What we need to do is go across this country and connect the dots for people," he said.

[krkaufman]

33. Another divider we need not

> You would prefer he talk about the Book of Job? Puhleeze.

I'd simply prefer that he not insult and alienate a large percentage of the population. What if he *wins* the nomination and election?

We're supposed to be setting a higher standard of leadership.

Qualifier/caveat: I don't disagree with him, entirely. We *can* win the GE without getting any Southern states, but, gee, I'd sure prefer a candidate who's election victory strategy doesn't involve the words "skin of my teeth."

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

45. Oh my God!

I actually agree with something blm said! Mark the calendar.

I agree completely. I think we're giving "winning the south" far too much importance. I'm not saying we should just concede the south like Gore did (it would be great if we carried some southern states), we just shouldn't treat it as a make or break issue. There are plenty of red states in the midwest, southwest, etc., that are definitely in play, and as such I don't think ANY of our candidates needs to be so hyper-focused on the south.

blm, I'm so pleased to finally agree with you on something that I'll even overlook the Book of Job swipe.

[blm]

48. why thanks....

I just meant to illustrate that it doesn't work to not be yourself ANYWHERE...including the South. I'm in SC and Dean got grilled in the press down here with his Jesus phase.

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

50. You're totally right

Unless of course you're Bush* and then the best thing to do when campaigning is to not be yourself everywhere. He was nothing if not consistently duplicitous in 2000.

Good luck tomorrow night. Like I said, I don't usually agree with what you have to say, but I admire your breadth of knowledge and your tenacity, and I'll be happy to fight alongside you after the primaries when we're all back on the same page.

[adadem]

62. I agree, too

I resent the fact that the south with, I'm guessing here, 1/4 of our nation's population should have such a decisive role in selection our presidents. The campaigns in the south should be handled no differently than they are anywhere else. That's pandering.

[ShaneGR]

4. BINGO.... Edwards just hit the JACKPOT

Perhaps Kerry is trying to discount his upcoming beatdown in the south, but that's just plain stupid talk.

[Snivi Yllom]

13. I think his internal polls show something

regarding the south and it is not all good news.

[mmonk]

5. yes

be patient and let the others make their mistakes. Stay on message and tell the truth.

[Monte Carlo]

6. Methinks something has been lost in translation...

... because unless both Kerry and his campaign manager are certifiably insane, they know how much the Southern vote will count in the upcoming election. Something is fishy, here...

[spooky3]

9. I do not trust that the media is giving us the story accurately

here.

[cthrumatrix]

64. Is he going to SC..?

[jsw_81]

7. Do the math

If we hold the Gore states (minus Florida) and take Ohio, we win. Same is true if we hold the Gore states and take Arizona and New Hampshire. I don't think it's a very good idea for Kerry or any other Democratic candidate to go around telling people that we should forget the South, but the truth is that the South isn't nearly as "crucial" to this election as many in the press would have you believe.

[leyton]

41. But we won't hold all the Gore states.

I'm sure Gore's strategy was to hold onto the Clinton states. Well, that failed (Clinton couldn't even hold on to all the Clinton states from 92, he lost Georgia). He didn't even keep Tennessee or Ohio, which should have been his. Similarly, we may not keep Pennsylvania or Michigan.

We need to campaign hard in as many southern swing states as we can (Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Florida, NC & SC if Edwards is the nominee) and in the southwest (Arizona, New Mexico) so that there's room for Bush to pick off something like Oregon or Pennsylvania.

[isbister]

10. Aren't you supposed to quote the title and/or the candidate?

ABC's headline is "Forget the South?"

Kerry didn't say Forget the South and what you've done here is very misleading. Kerry said:

"Everybody always makes the mistake of looking South," Kerry said, in response to a question about winning the region. "Al Gore proved he could have been president of the United States without winning one Southern state, including his own."

"I think the fight is all over this country," Kerry said. "Forget about those red and blue states. We're going to change that now, and we're going to go out there and change the face of America."

[girl gone mad]

12. That doesn't sound as..

inflamatory.

I also think this could be more of an easy let down to his supporters, since he does not have strong numbers in the Southern primaries and from what I've heard, he doesn't have the organization and may even drop out of a few Feb 3rd states.

[isbister]

49. does not have strong numbers

Kerry? Drop out of Feb 3rd states, where'd you hear that?

He's second in SC, 4 points behind Edwards, probably shouldn't drop out of that one.

[WilliamPitt]

11. He's right, unfortunately

Consider the factors:

1. The south is a GOP stronghold where 25% of the voting population is evangelical Christian. Not Christian. Evangelical Christian. George's folk, in spades. So wipe out one quarter of the voting base as possible Dem voters. Put them 100% in the GOP corner. Then subtract the number of people who won't vote, and subtract the number of people who vote GOP because of guns and abortion no matter what, and any Southern state maybe has 40% for a Democrat to win. Maybe. This has changed even since Clinton.

2. Bush has a 10-1 spending advantage over every Democrat, even Dean. He can go all-out in all 50 states. The Democrat will have to be wiser in the spending. Here's how you win:

New England (minus New Hampshire): 30
New York: 31
New Jersey: 15
Delaware: 3
Maryland: 10
DC: 3
Pennsylvania: 21
Ohio (crucial): 20
West Virginia (crucial): 5
Michigan: 17
Illinois: 21
Wisconsin: 10
Minnesota: 10
Washington: 10
Oregon: 7
California: 55
Hawaii: 4
======================

= 272 Electoral College votes

= Victory.

The South is not in play.

[La_Serpiente]

15. Are those numbers adjusted

from 2000 when they had the census?

[WilliamPitt]

17. It's the 2004 map

Here:

http://www.4president.org/ec2004.htm

[BootinUp]

16. Disagree

You can't right off the South. Do that and our party won't recover in the Senate or House for the forseeable future.

If we want to govern we have to represent all regions of the country to some degree. If the problem is we are misunderstood then fix it. If the problem is our policies, then fix it. But don't tell me you can win or have a viable national party by writing off the South.

[WilliamPitt]

18. Presidential race and Congressional races are different

Congressional races can really focus on regional issues and make some hay. A presidential race cannot be that locally precise. I'm not saying 'write off the south,' but there's some shit you just can't fix in 10 months. This has been a trend developing for 30 years. It is what it is.

[spooky3]

26. The electoral college is the crux of the issue.

While there are many Democrats (and I don't mean Zell Miller Democrats) in the South, they are outnumbered by the Repugs. If the electoral college were not winner-take-all, the Democrats would have more reason to focus limited resources there.

[WilliamPitt]

28. We cannot walk away entirely

Though the popular vote has no teeth because of the EC, it would still be a huge boost to try and get to that 40% plateau in as many Southern states as possible. With an EC win and a popular vote win boosted by Southern votes, a mandate is achieved.

[jsw_81]

21. Don't forget Florida

That's the one Southern state where we might actually win, especially if our nominee puts Bob Graham on the ticket.

[WilliamPitt]

23. Florida is gone

It was gone in 2000, as we found out to our woe. Jeb and the boys have had four more years to boll-weevil into the process. Money spent in Florida is money wasted. That's like expecting fair elections in Nicaragua during the Reagan era. Not gonna happen.

[spooky3]

27. I disagree, especially with greater scrutiny, and with more

liberal northerners moving to retire there every year.

[WilliamPitt]

29. Democratic voters could outnumber GOP voters 500-1 in Florida

and it wouldn't matter. The only people who matter in Florida are the ones who count the votes, and they have already proven themselves to be beyond trust. I don't want to gamble limited campaign cash on a crooked roulette wheel again.

[JaneQPublic]

31. That argument can be made for the whole country, in 2004 (n/t)

[WilliamPitt]

32. The whole country has Jeb Bush as governor?

I must have missed the memo. Mitt Romney is gonna be pissed.

[krkaufman]

37. 2008

> The whole country has Jeb Bush as governor?

Not yet. That's January 2009.

(After the Democratic president is tossed-out Gray Davis style, due to the Bush-induced financial crisis blamed on him by Fox News.)

[krkaufman]

36. Must disagree

There's a threshold of victory beyond which they won't be able to steal it again. Having a candidate that blows off the South will guarantee that we don't get anywhere near that threshold -- or anywhere near the 40% mark you suggested.

[TomNickell]

22. The Old Confederacy...

You're right about the old confederacy. No hope. Same for the Rural West, for different reasons.

But there are a number of in-betweeners that Gore lost by just a few hundred votes last time. Ark, Tenn, Missouri (I think), Fla, W.Va.

Don't pander to the racist religious nuts. But don't make redneck jokes, either.

[WilliamPitt]

24. The border states might be in play, yes

Missouri, West Virginia, the southern half of Ohio. We HAVE to win Ohio.

[Zynx]

40. TN, AR, and LA are all in play too.

To some extent, VA is as well. Bear in mind Gore only lost the state by 6 points. We need at the very least a southern veep. I would like Breaux to be that guy. However, Kerry has loser written all over him. People don't elect biographies with the exception of Eisenhower.

[krkaufman]

34. Playing for a tie?

Sorry, but I'm not discounting the South. I'm looking for a candidate who's strategy is to win as many states as possible; not one who's trying to win by a gnat's hair.

(I agree that we *could* win without winning a Southern state, but no Democrat's done it in 60 years.)

[NashVegas]

38. Southern Strategy

You'd be surprised by the number of righties who grow less pleased with Shrub, daily.

To reach them and get their votes, the Dems have to place high importance of the positive aspects of what we can do. ie, give them something to vote for.

At the same time, attack Bush not from the left, but from the right. Massive debt. Runaway spending. Dangle some tax breaks for small, community-oriented business owners and self-employed contractors. There are a small handful of issues where the right is extremely pissed off at Bush. Hit them, and hit them hard.

Hit on the Faith-based legislation by reminding them it's just as bad - if not worse - to have government interfering with religion, instead of playing up the liberal fear of religion interfering with government.

[returnable]

44. It's not really a matter of...

...whether his assessment of carrying the South in the GE is "right" or "wrong."

For me, the point is it was a rather foolish thing to say a week before the SC primary.

There are Dems in that region that'd like a candidate to at least put the South in play, however unrealistic the chances.

[nightperson]

70. Andrew Sullivan agrees today with Kerry.

He says Florida may be the exception, and that the GOP has basically written off the Northeast. :shrug: Eric Alterman also seems to agree with Kerry today. I don't know myself, but all this reminds me of Josh Marshall's comment a while back about his longtime admiration for General Sherman. Anyone keeping an eye on Fort Sumter :shrug: :nuke: :shrug: ?

[Bonhomme Richard]

14. Only Southerners Need Apply

What is this with presidents and the south? Since when should we only present presidential candidates that come from south of the mason-dixon line. Frankly (I know, stop calling me that) I think that the south is as fed up with bush as the rest of us and if a dem goes down there and tells it like it is he will do well. I am sure that is what Kerry meant and I heard him talk about just that in an interview the other day when the reporter asked him about Dukakis and the south. He said that Dukakis didn't lose the south because he was a northerner and I think that is true.

[Melodybe]

19. Kerry is ignoring us b/c he knows that he is the only one of the big 4

that can not win in the south. Dean, Edwards, and Clark have plenty of supporters here. Dean is the only candidate with a group on campus but i have heard plenty of others say that they like Edwards and Clark the most.

No one likes Kerry. No one, which is why he is so willing to write us off. That is such BS I want to scream!!! Especially with so many poor rednecks totally pissed at Bu$h. It is a shame to b/c the votes are here, we just need a candidate to come and get them.

If Kerry has a substantial lead in NH, and Dean's outlook is grim, then I am going to start campainging for Edwards or Clark, depending on who does the best in SC.

This make me so mad, why the heck do you people think that he can win without the South, we need the candidate that will bring out the most voters period. Kerry aint it.

[drfemoe]

42. That is the TRUTH

This after Kerry saying last week that Zell Miller's compliment on his speech was his ticket to win the South?

Dean, Clark, Edwards all have appeal in Southern states, which will become apparent once the primary process begins in those states.

[jsw_81]

55. Are you joking?

Howard Dean would get wiped out in the South, in both the primaries and the general. The latest polls show him running fifth in South Carolina.

[rockymountaindem]

20. What's the big deal?

I don't think that what Kerry said is inflammatory. I think that we should campaign in the south, but seriously, does anyone really think we can win there? I'd say we can win Florida (like last time) which would be huge and maybe Louisiana and maybe Arkansas if the nominee is Clark or if he is the VP candidate. Other than that, we're sunk down there.

While we should campaign in the south in order to keep Bush* off balance, we should expect our electoral votes to come from elsewhere.

[La_Serpiente]

25. articles relavent to this thread

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A40359-2003Nov14¬Found=true

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A40359-2003Nov14¬Found=true

[La_Serpiente]

30. If a candidate chooses not to go to the South

we cannot depend all on Ohio. There needs to be some backup states as well.

Democrats should try to at least make some inroads into Arizona and stregthen our posistion in New Mexico.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

35. South to Dems: Forget Kerry

why bother?

[Zynx]

39. YEEEEEAAAARRRGGGGGHHHH!!!! That's a whopper.

He gets the "double whopper with everything on it" award for that one. Bravo John.

And I thought my guy was capable of gaffes.

[janx]

43. WOW. That was not smart. Talk about alienating some voters.

It's one thing for campaign operatives to muse over these things; it's quite another for a candidate to dismiss some American voters as unimportant.

YEEEAAAGHHH!

[bigtree]

47. Context

Kerry spokesman David Wade insisted Kerry thinks campaigning in the South, "is important, too. Fritz Hollings wouldn't have endorsed John Kerry if he didn't believe he was committed to, and would and could carry states in the South against George Bush."

Wade noted that the minority leader of the South Carolina state house and former Georgia Democratic Sen. Max Cleland has endorsed Kerry and is campaigning on his behalf.

In addition, Kerry will travel to South Carolina late this week to campaign and take part in Thursday night's debate there.

"If he's the nominee, John Kerry believes there are Southern states he can carry," Wade said. "But by the same token, no one should take New Hampshire for granted." Kerry has made similar remarks before — though not as a frontrunner and not so close to the South Carolina primary, looming on Feb. 3, or the contests in Tennessee and

[janx]

54. That's not context, exactly. Those are facts to contradict

what was posted. And you are right to post them.

But my opinion still stands: Although Kerry may have been right in a statistical sense, saying so in front of a crowd at Dartmouth (or anywhere) probably wasn't the most politically expedient thing to do.

[cthrumatrix]

51. only if the "press runs with it"...or other candidates....either way

our candidates need the south...and southern voters count as much as anywhere.

[slinkerwink]

46. hehe.....

;-)

[sandnsea]

52. But the media WANTS Kerry

:eyes: What happened to that theory??

Yesterday he said we need to stop treating the south like a foreign country. He was right. They'll appreciate that. Why didn't that get reported?

[Toucano]

53. He's gonna really help

us win those southern Senate seats up for grabs in the fall, isn't he?

Thanks, John. We'll just send you to PA Ave. to face a hostile congress. You'll accomplish loads!

[surfermaw]

56. Kerry and the South

I don't know how Kerry will go in the south, many in the south loved Kennedy JFK....and maybe Kerry has in mind a running mate to help him. I am Edwards, but will support any one who get the nomination, according to some polls...Edwards is leading in South Carolina..with his poll numbers rising 4 points in the last couple of days.

[Zynx]

57. Kennedy still benefitted from genetic Southern Democrats.

If you think JFK would win a single southern state today you are smoking it. Do some electoral history.

[kodi]

58. so kerry wants to abandon the south to the gop?

state and local political campaigns ride the coattails of the presidential campaigns. to give up on the south indicates that kerry is willing to allow the GOP to control the south from the local up to the legislative federal level, all on a roll of the dice with an alternative presidential campaign strategy.

this would cede total control of southern senate and house seats to the GOP and result in a veto-proof congress if the GOP also wins the white house.

[Zynx]

60. Kerry's aloof and arrogant Northeastern label really fits.

This reminds me of Dukakis all over again. We picked him because we thought he was our best chance.

Kerry, like Dukakis, is a classic Northeastern liberal. $600 haircuts, a $10 million house on Beacon Hill, a snotty appearance and demeanor, and saying you don't need the south doesn't help.

[Logansquare]

59. Oye, so much for getting that nomination giftwrapped with a bow

Speaking as a Dean supporter, what is it about the South that makes candidates say strange things?

[Tatiana]

61. I refused to write-off the South.

South Carolina, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida... these are all states with voters who share our vision and our values. I'm sick and tired of writing off the South. We should be focusing on these Southern states and trying to draw them further left instead of abandoning them to the disgusting philosophies of the neo-cons and stealth Republicans like Zell Miller.

[RobinA]

63. I Missed a Memo Somewhere

Why is the south so anti-Kerry versus other Dem candidates? Will they ONLY support someone from the south? I'm missing what it is about Kerry tha southern Dems don't like.

[Zynx]

65. Kerry fits the NE-elitist-liberal label better than anyone I have ever

seen

[cthrumatrix]

66. they will label all our candidates...any of them....

[LBJBestEver]

67. It's true, we could dig up Lee's body and run it and still lose the South

[BootinUp]

68. I hope so

I think I understand your point but I don't agree with it.

[WiseMen]

69. Totally Innacurate Spin on what Kerry said. Kerry was refusing to PANDER

He was saying that Southerners should be respected like any other
american, and shared values and concerns outweight differences.

[fujiyama]

71. Wow, this was a dumb thing to say.

While I'm definetely against putting resources into states that have little chance of voting democratic, I can't believe Kerry would actually make such a strategy public. It really seems idiotic. Also, it seems unecessary to write off states we may have a fighting chance in like say Louisiana.

Either way, some in the south will look at this statement and think "Zell Miller is right".

I must say this gaffe of Kerry's might stick and hurt him big -- after all he's already the "Taxachussets, Ted Kennedy liberal"

As one having been skeptical of Dean's ability to compete after several gaffes (and I still am), I must say publically saying 'we can win without so and so a region' is foolish. Sure, we will think these things, but a candidate need not express this publically. Contrast this to Dean's call for unity among lower class whites and blacks, with his confederate flag comment months ago...

And while it's true the GOP plays regional politics more than anyone else, they're more subtle about it...and they're southern base is probably larger and more efficient than ours on the NE.

[Loren645]

72. His arrogance is really starting to bite him in the ass.

He's criss-crossing NH smugly telling people he doesn't need
their votes: if you have a problem with the IWR "don't vote for me,"
if you're in the South, he's already written you off.

Even if he really believes that, is it a good idea to tell
everyone in the South they're irrelevant? Not exactly the
unity candidate, huh? More like the Yankee yaley looking
down his nose at *them*.

He only stayed humble as long as it took to be declared the
front runner.

I hope Hollings does withdraw his endorsement.

"Kerry's remarks Saturday were so starkly antithetical to how many southern Democrats feel their party should campaign for the presidency, that a former South Carolina state Democratic chairman told ABCNEWS that Sen. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings, D-S.C., who endorsed Kerry last week, perhaps "ought to reconsider his endorsement."

http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/Politics/Vote2004/kerry_south_040126-1.html

[emulatorloo]

75. The arrogance of ABC and Bush are going to bite them in the ass

Kerry is criticising rebub divisiveness not the South

from an article without wacky ABC spin
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/01/26/politics1351EST0647.DTL&type=printable

Snip

He said his message is resonating in all parts of the country, including the South and other areas in which Democrats have not won.

"The South is not a foreign country," he said. "If all they want to do in this campaign is throw labels around, they've got a problem."

Kerry said voters in all regions of the country respond to the same message of bolstering the economy and social justice. "What we need to do is go across this country and connect the dots for people," he said.

[zulchzulu]

76. He didn't say "forget the South"

He said:

"Everybody always makes the mistake of looking South," Kerry said, in response to a question about winning the region. "Al Gore proved he could have been president of the United States without winning one Southern state, including his own."

"I think the fight is all over this country," Kerry said. "Forget about those red and blue states. We're going to change that now, and we're going to go out there and change the face of America."

Yes, the South is important. So is the rest of the country.

Like Kerry said, Gore won no southern states and won the popular vote. If Kerry won Florida, he'd beat Bush.

[krkaufman]

78. Florida required?

Ummm... so we want to get behind a strategy that requires a victory in Florida, where the GOP is still in power, and has previously demonstrated a willingness to publicly fxxx us?

Yes, let's appeal to as broad an audience as possible. One way to do that is to NOT comment about discounting whole regions during the election.

[milkyway]

77. This Dean guy totally agrees with Kerry, but it was a dumb

thing to say. He's going to get killed for it. Context doesn't mean anything to the media and those with a two-second attention span.

[Dhalgren]

79. I agree with Will Pitt, above.

All big money should be spent in areas where there is a realistic chance of winning. The south should not be ignored (and Kerry did not say that it should), but the party has to be realistic. Does anyone remember that Gore lost Tennessee in 2000? I mean, how clear can it be - the south has a reactionary, ultra-conservative, evangelical Christianist, right-wing majority that doesn't give a damn what shape the country is in. That majority only cares that the hated "libruls" must all die (and painfully, of course).

[WiseMen]

80. The Dems have to change the way they think about Campaigning. Pandering

has got to go. We have to win not by pandering to prejudice but by
reviving ideals and changing minds.