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Probably Cheney. Maybe W. Here's my thinking on Rove and Libby &c.
I think the evidence given to the public to date indicates Rove deliberately orchestrated the leak of a covert CIA official whose identity the agency was actively concealing. In addition, at least one official KNEW the Plame’s identity was covert. Each new piece in fact suggests that a number of administrative officials will face multiple indictments in the leak of Plame's identity. Rove will receive probably more than one.
1. We know there were at least 6 initial reporters contacted (including Novak, Miller, Cooper, and Pincus) and that 3 of those contacted called at least one secondary source the confirm the story (Cooper implies he had more than single confirming source named as Scooter Libby). We know that Cooper's initial source (Rove) specifically released him, but that Miller's would not do so. Since we already know Novak's initial source is Libby, there would be no reason him not to release Miller if he were her source (unless the crime was more obvious). Therefore we know that there were two (Libby and Rove) initial sources and probably at least another. Already we are deeply into the terrain of collaboration. (Someone would be needed to coordinate the leaks.) But when we realize that the plan has to have 3 confirming sources available, since the "conspiracy" (it becomes the unavoidable word) could not insure who the reporters would call to confirm their stories. The plan would need several “high governmental officals” primed (ready and willing to confirm) (Of course a confirming source for one reporter could be a primary course for another.)
Impossible to accomplish these 9 (or 9+) calls by at least 2, probably 3 or more initial callers, with others ready to confirm, without coordination. It wouldn't be rocket science for the Rove's Machiavellian machine he calls a mind, and it would be Rove of all people in the group of officials (probably largely composed of the White House Iraq Group) who would naturally direct (mastermind) the entire, making sure no two officials attempted to act as an initial source for a single reporter (that would appear too eager), that the story be believable (pitched nonchalantly, briefly), that the story is given in slightly different forms, and that the confirming sources were in place and with the story somewhat different in non-substantive matters (so it doesn't sound like it was leaked by rote.) Therefore it was deliberately leaked.
2. We know Rove has had multiple visits by the FBI and to the grand jury. That implication alone is as loud as it gets. Plus we heard today from Bloomberg news that Rove and Libby’s testimony conflicts with the reporters’ (Russert and Novak), the administration officials claiming to have heard Plame’s name first from the reporters.
3. The State Department memo concerning Plame, was reported by Walter Pincus yesterday to be clearly marked "S" for "Secret" by the paragraph containing information on her connection to Wilson. Today's reports in fact indicate it was marked "SNF,” meaning “Secret, No Foreign,” a higher classification forbidding officials from sharing the information with even friendly intelligence services like those of Isreal or England. Therefore the official who disseminated the identity from this source was highly aware that the CIA was actively trying to conceal Plame's identity. Therefore it was knowingly leaked.
4. The inanity and hysteria of the RNC's (and others') spinning has been noted by reporters across the nation as indicative a party which "off its game." Expecting a terrible outcome, the RNC has been stalling for time, hoping the Supreme Court Nominee would bump the story off the front pages. (For a day it did . . . until Walter Pincus's story yesterday about classifications on the State Department memo sent to Air Force One.) Al Franken told us yesterday (7/21) that after some difficulty he was able to demonstrate to the RNC staff that the story on their web-site which states Wilson claimed the Vice President sent him to Niger was simply false, a lie (showing the context for Wilson's quote yet again). What was the RNC's reaction? "We're standing by it." Simple as that. My point it, when the fact that they are willing to be so consciously and blatantly dissembling in public (which can be used against them), indicates they are very distressed about the future.
Therefore, RNC's spin, the numbers of callers, the deliberate and repetitive acts, Rove's visits with FBI and grand jury, and the knowing intent behind the leak = Rove will go down in Plames. Likely he is guilty of leaking (with knowledge), leading a conspiracy to leak, and perjury.
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