Events will decide the 2004 election.

[Raven]

There has been an enormous amount of talk about which democrat candidate is best able to beat Bush. Up until now I have bought into that and have felt that John Kerry could do the job better than the other candidates. Now I have second thoughts. I am beginning to think that the only person who can beat George W. Bush is George W. Bush.

I am thinking back to Nixon. The man was a liar, a hateful, unbalanced man. He played to the basest instincts in people and he was elected and then reelected. Nixon faced one of the finest democrats ever in 1968, Hubert Humphrey. I worked in that campaign while I was in grad school in Washington. It was a very close election and it really just came down to money. Humphrey ran out of money. After Nixon came into office, he set about building a fantastic political machine and a "dirty tricks" department that is only now being rivaled by Rove & Company. Nixon destroyed himself, plain and simple. He was his own worst enemy.

Bush is facing even more problems than Nixon faced. Bush has opened Pandora's Box when it comes to foreign relations. He has set off a chain of events that he now cannot control. These events will either break his way or they won't. He also will have little control over timing. Bush has set into motion a chain of fiscal events in this country that he will not be able to control. In his State of the Union speech, he threw money at all of our domestic problems but the money is running out. The fate of the economy is now largely out of his hands.

Ten months is a long time in politics and while Bush might be able to produce an October surprise, I suspect that he may be the one taken by surprise. I still believe that Kerry will be a formidible opponent but I think Bush's most formidable opponent is staring back at him in the mirror each morning.

[soleft]

1. I was thinking the same thing

I think it's interesting that Kay's statement about no weapons in Iraq, the deaths of US Soldiers, and suddenly polls have Dean back in the race.

The only thing Bush has going for him is this idea out there that he's a tough guy who will fight back against the terrorists. If he can't play that card he can't win.

[krkaufman]

2. He has other tools

Unfortunately, Bush has a few other tools at his disposal: the military, fear, Osama October surprise, a massive, effective propaganda machine, ...

[Raven]

3. That's why I think he's alot like Nixon.

He has alot going for him. I think it's his election to lose.

[isbister]

4. bush has woven a very tangled web for himself

I was thinking earlier, this guy doesn't have a chance... but then again, I thought Al Gore won last time.

PS- How many investigations are currently going on involving the administration and/or the republican leadership.... its quite a few.... like we're talking reagan years kind of numbers.