I know it has been asked before but which Senate seats next year

[ncteechur]

are the most vulnerable for us to pick up?

Santorum?

Coleman? or did he come in 2002?

who else?

Are there any we are in real danger of losing?

[navvet]

1. Coleman was elected in 02

but Santorum is toast in Pa next year.

Kohl will hold here in WI unless Tommy runs against him, in which case it would be entertaining.

[acmejack]

2. Kay Baily Hutchison!

Going down to Barbara Ann Radnofsky. Not sure if KBH has been alerted to the fact yet.

[ISUGRADIA]

11. Optimism is nice but no Democrat is going to beat Hutchison

[ncteechur]

3. Will Franken take Coleman out?

[scarletwoman]

6. He'd better not be trying for 2006! We have some great Dem candidates

lined up already.

Best pick would be Amy Klobuchar, the current Hennepin county prosecutor.

I honestly hope Franken doesn't run at all. He's really NOT going to go over big with most Minnesotans.

We already had a pro-wrestler governor, we DON'T need a comedian senator.

sw

[election_2004]

8. Franken would be a joke

Franken is fine as a media personality, but not for a serious U.S. Senate candidate.

Becky Lourey should challenge Norm Coleman in 2008.

[scarletwoman]

4. In MN: Coleman's seat isn't up 'til 2008, Dayton's seat is open for 2006.

It's going to be a brutal fight to keep Dayton's seat in the Democratic side. As a Minnesotan, this is my highest priority. (Second priority is to dump our repug guv.)

I'm not up on the situation in other states regarding the 2006 Senate race. Obviously, what we need is to get as many Democratic Senators elected as possible. It's going to be tough fight pretty much everywhere, I think.

sw

[SteppingRazor]

5. Here's what I think...

Democrat Ford stands an outside chance of taking Tennessee.

Democrat Warner could take back Virginia if he tries for senator there instead of running for president -- but he's running for president.

Democrat John Tester could beat Burns in Montana

Santorum should get spanked by Bob Casey.

Thus, we pick up four seats, the GOP loses them, and we have a much tighter Senate. Of course, there's plenty of other races open. Here's all I've got to say, most of it complete bullshit (so caveat emptor):

RETIRING
Dayton (D - Minnesota)
Election – After beating Amy Khobluchar in the primary, Patty Wetterling takes on Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, who is the GOP chosen one for this field.
Result – Minnesota feels shame and degredation after allowing Norm Coleman to win. This is definitely a win for Dems.
(STAYS DEM)

Frist (R - Tennessee)
Election -- The catkiller steps out to go for the Big Brass Ring (a.k.a. The White House), and Jesus freak Ed Bryant goes toe-to-toe with Harold Ford, Jr., a moderate (read: conservative) Democrat.
Result -- The Fords are a household name in Tennessee. And this one will be the first black man elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Jeffords (I - Vermont)
Election -- The Dems defer to Independent candidate Bernie Sanders. The GOP throws up a candidate and cries like a little girl.
Result -- Vermont Loves Bernie. Nuff said.
(STAYS INDEPENDENT)

Sarbanes (D - Maryland)
Election -- I see it between Dem. Rep. Ben Cardin (beating out Chris Van Hollen in the primary) and Lt. Gov. Steele (who probably beat Alan "batshit insane" Keyes in the primary)
Result -- Maryland is safely Dem. Say hello to Senator Cardin.
(STAYS DEM)


POSSIBLY RETIRING
Akaka (D - Hawaii)
Election -- Akaka (age at election: 82) vs. ?
Result -- Akaka should step down, as Hawaii is slowly becoming Republican and we should get a young incumbent in while we can. But at least Akaka is a shoe-in.
(STAYS DEM)

Byrd (D - W. Va.)
Election -- Byrd (age at election: 88) vs. barely constitutionally allowable by age Hiram Lewis
Result -- Byrd demonstrates how age and wisdom wins out over youth, beauty, and an undying devotion to bombing things.
(STAYS DEM)

Corzine (D - New Jersey)
Election -- Corzine will beat Forrester in this year's election to become governor of New Jersey, leaving his chosen successor, Rep. Frank Pallone to run against state senator Tom Kean.
Result -- Tough call, but look to Pallone to pull it off.
(STAYS DEM)

Feinstein (D - California)
Election -- Feinstein (age at election: 73) vs. some GOP guy you last heard of racing against Ah-nold (McClintock, Issa, etc.), or else incredibly dark-horse candidate, Sec. of State Kinda Sleazy Rice.
Result -- If she doesn't retire, she's in
(STAYS DEM)

Hatch (R - Utah)
Election -- Hatch (age at election: 72) vs. Pete Ashdown
Result -- If Hatch retires, Popular Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson could step in, which could give up the unbelievable occurance of a Democratic Senator from Utah. But for now, Hatch wins.
(STAYS GOP)

Kennedy (D - Massachusetts)
Election -- Kennedy (age at election: 74) vs. ?
Result -- If Kennedy retires, Mitt Romney might run. Either way, Dems win.
(STAYS DEM)

Kohl (D - Wisconsin)
Election -- Kohl (age at election: 71) vs. Tommy Thompson
Result -- This is the rock-star Senate race. Tommy Thompson and Kohl are both very popular. If Thompson does indeed throw his hat in the ring, Kohl might retire to avoid ending his political career on a loss. Either way, Thompson wins.
(CHANGES TO GOP)

Lugar (R - Indiana)
Election -- Lugar (age at election: 74) vs. ?
Result -- Yeah, yeah. Lugar wins.
(STAYS GOP)


ELECTIONS
Allen (R - Virginia)
Election -- Allen vs. Governor Mark Warner
Result -- Virginians Love Warner.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Bingaman (D - New Mexico)
Election -- Bingaman vs. Rep. Heather Wilson.
Result -- Tough battle, but Bingy wins.
(STAYS DEM)

Burns (R - Montana)
Election -- Burns vs. (after another long primary) John Tester
Result -- The Dems took over both state houses and the governorship in the last couple of years. 73-year-old Burns is a fossil. Tester is young, with plenty of ideas. He wins.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Cantwell (D - Washington)
Election -- Cantwell vs. Rossi
Result -- Crazed with bitterness and seeking revenge, would-be governor Dino Rossi goes for the Senate seat. But nobody likes a sore loser, man.
(STAYS DEM)

Carper (D - Delaware)
Election -- Carper vs. unknown Republican
Result -- safe bet for Carper
(STAYS DEM)

Chafee (R - Rhode Island)
Election -- Chafee vs. Sheldon Whitehouse.
Result -- with a name like Whitehouse, you'd love to see him win. But like DeWine, as long as Chafee wins the primary, he's got it made as a moderate voice.
(STAYS REP)

Clinton (D - New York)
Election -- Clinton vs. ?
Result -- Only in their wet dreams does the GOP beat Hillary
(STAYS DEM)

Conrad (D - North Dakota)
Election -- Conrad vs. ?
Result -- Conrad has played it safe, playing moderate as best he can. He'll get payback for that by winning re-election. Unlike Lieberman, there's very little liberal base in North Dakota to try running a lib candidate against him. And besides, even if that candidate won, it would just mean a beating from the GOP. In this case, moderation pays.
(STAYS DEM)

DeWine (R - Ohio)
Election -- DeWine vs. as yet unknown Democrat
Result -- DeWine played the moderate card by being one of the 14 GOPpers to negotiate on the filibuster. If he survives the unforgiving and conservative-heavy primary, the moderate general-election voters will pull him in.
(STAYS REP)

Hutchinson (R - Texas)
Election -- Hutchison vs. former Lt. Gov. Ben Barnes
Result -- Dude, it's Texas.
(STAYS GOP)

Kyl (R - Arizona)
Election -- Kyl vs. unknown Democrat
Result -- Kyl. Despite its reputation as a swing state, Arizona seems hot for the GOP
(STAYS GOP)

Lieberman (D - Connecticut)
Election -- Lieberman vs. unknown Republican
Result -- Lieberman is the DeWine or Chafee of the Democratic Party -- if he lives through the primary, he wins.
(STAYS DEM)

Lott (R - Mississippi)
Election -- Trent Lott vs. Erik Fleming
Result -- ha ha ha ha! Why are you even hoping? It's Lott by a mile.
(STAYS GOP)

Nelson (D - Florida)
Election -- Nelson vs. Katherine "Cruella deVille" Harris
Result -- Even the mushy middle sees Harris as a thoughtless GOP apparatchik. Nelson wins.
(STAYS DEM)

Nelson (D - Nebraska)
Election -- Nelson vs. Don Stenberg
Result -- Nelson beat him in 2000. He'll beat him again in 2006.
(STAYS DEM)

Santorum (R - Pennsylvania)
Election -- Santorum vs. treasurer Bob Casey
Result -- In a moderate, mostly blue state like Pennsylvania, Santorum should've kept his religio-whacko views out of the headlines.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Snowe (R - Maine)
Election -- Snowe vs. state AG Rowe.
Result -- While Snowe vs. Rowe sounds funny, it ain't for us. It's the old moderate story. If she wins the primary, she's in.
(STAYS GOP)

Stabenow (D - Michigan)
Election -- Stabenow vs. (after a nasty, drawn-out primary) token black conservative Keith Butler, whom the GOP hopes will siphon off black votes.
Result -- Bad idea, GOP. Stabenow wins.
(STAYS DEM)

Talent (R - Missouri)
Election -- Talent vs. ?
Results -- Missouri is probably safe for Talent
(STAYS GOP)

Thomas (R - Wyoming)
Election -- Thomas vs. ?
Election -- To paraphrase my Texas thing -- Dude, it's Wyoming.
(STAYS GOP)

[election_2004]

7. Disagree about Missouri....

If Claire McCaskill runs against Jim Talent, then Eddie Haskell - - er, I mean, Talent - - is going DOWN!!!!

[SteppingRazor]

9. Hope you're right. In fact, you may be.

I just cut and paste my Senate picks from a couple months ago. Haven't updated in a while, and I need to do some reading up :)

[iwantmycountryback]

10. No offense, but I think you have a poor analysis

First of all, Chris Van Hollen has already said he is not going to run for Senate. The primary will be between Cardin and Kweisi Mfume and Cardin will probably win, along with winning the general. It seems pretty unlikely that Tommy Thompson is going to run, as he seems to be enjoying the private sector. Mark Warner probably won't run for Senate, but he could make it very close if he does. Heather Wilson is not going to run against Bingaman. It would be tough of a race and she does not want to risk a probable loss. Dino Rossi has already said he is going to run for governor against against Gregoire, and the likely GOP candidate against Cantwell is Mike McGavick. Chafee is a Republican from Rhode Island, which is all I have to say about why this race will be very close. Sheldon Whitehouse could make it very close and I wouldn't be surprised to see him win. Dewine is in a lot of trouble in Ohio, as is about every other elected Republican in the state. His re-election numbers are in the tank. If Rep.Sherrod Brown decides to run against him, he has an excellent chance of winning. Jon Kyl will be running against the State Party Chair Jim Pederson, who has deep pockets and will probably pour some of his own wealth into the campaign. There's a small chance it could be a close race. Claire McCaskill is the likely Democrat in Missouri, and she nearly won the governor's race in 04 getting 48%, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this race become close. Talent's approval ratings are in the 30's the last I saw.

[SteppingRazor]

12. As stated in post #9...

These are my picks from months ago. I just pasted them in there from a Word doc. So, as I stated in that post, it's probably all bullshit.

In other words, I agree that the analysis is probably mostly bunk. I need to go back and update my picks.