If Clark comes in fourth in NH does he stay in or withdrawl?

[WI_DEM]

I think he has the resources to stay in, but would it be considered a huge set-back? I'm asking because Gephardt withdrew from Iowa with a fourth place showing--would Clark necessarily have to? On the one hand he decided not to compete in Iowa so he could concentrate on NH. He (and Lieberman) basically had a full month of campaigning in NH while the others were concentrating on Iowa.

On the other hand, he is from Arkansas and Dean and Kerry are from New England couldn't he claim that even if he came in fourth he did pretty well against the home-region boys?

My guess is that he would be able to go on to South Carolina and concentrate on winning there, but if Edwards comes in third it would probably give him more momentum going in SC than it would Clark.

In your opinion, where does Clark have to place in NH to come out looking solid going into next weeks contests?

I say a solid third.

p.s.
I doubt Lieberman will come in any higher than fifth, and so he would definitely be finished.

[robsul82]

Probably go into withdrawal.

Drool, get the shakes, whole bit.

Later.

RJS

[LTR]

1. He'll stay

Even Clark acknowledges he likely won't win NH, but his big payday will be in the south, southwest and west.

Here in Wisconsin, there is a lot of buzz and advertising about him.

[jfxgillis]

18. Then why the HELL did Clark go ...

"All in" in NH??

It's mind-boggling.

This isn't about issues, or policy debates or substance, or personality or character. Clark's fine as a citizen, a person, a man of public life and a Democrat. It's about structural issues having to do with the course of campaigns.

IF, as you say, Clark was destined to perform better in the South (unlikely, btw, they don't call NH "Dixie of the North" for nothing), then he should have concentrated his campaign there instead of going for broke in NH.

[returnable]

19. He didn't "go for broke" in NH...

...unlike some of the other candidates, Clark has actually been building ground support across the country. Kerry has already admitted he won't be able to compete in all the 2/3 states. What does that tell you? Clark won't run the table, but he's in better position to compete in all 7 states.

Sure, Clark still needs a solid showing in NH to prove his viability.

But he is not pulling a Gephardt by putting all his eggs in one basket.

Clark's in it for the long haul. And he has the bank and the base to back it up.

[elixir]

20. He didn't go "all in" he skipped Iowa.

Since the next logical place to campaign after Iowa is New Hampshire, that's where he spent his time. I can't imagine his campaign didn't know that he would fall in the polls after everyone returned from Iowa, it was a given. I think they did they're best to get as much support as possible during Iowa so they could make a decent showing in NH.

What's decent - third place. Fourth is a tough sell but he does have alot of support in the south and west.

[KittyWampus]

Wes Is Gonna Win

and he's getting ready to kick ass down south and the southwest.

[LuminousX]

2. He stays in

Losing once won't devastate his campaign, especially with him looking pretty good in the South right now.

[mdmc]

9. He stays in

He has too much to say. I don't think that he got in to this race to bow out so early.
My prediction is that no one will drop out after NH.
Edwards is the southern candidate.
Leiberman is the 'conservative' candidate.
Kerry is the 'electable liberal'.
Dean is the populist.
Kucinich and Sharpton are the progressives.
Clark is the Clinton choice from AK.

The only way I see a dropout is if someone places lower than Sharpton.

[jmaier]

3. I think he retains interesting Feb 3rd

options whether he is 2nd, 3rd or 4th. Frankly, the statistical difference between 3rd and 4th is probably going to be neglible.

2nd while unlikely is a homerun for Clark in NH.

The difference between 3rd and 4th, if statiscally close, is less important than whether he is in front of or behind Edwards. If he trails Edwards by several points that is going to hurt somewhat in SC and even in other Feb 3rd states like OK.

[Hoosier Democrat]

4. My two cents

Here's my take:

Clark: He has to finish third in New Hampshire. If he finishes below Edwards, he cedes th mantle of "Southern Candidate". On the other hand, if he finishes second or third (above Dean), he's still in play.

Lieberman: Despite the self-proclaimed "Jomentum", he's still in single digits. Take a cue from Snagglepuss, Joe, and "Exit, Stage Right!"

[maddezmom]

5. he stays

:)

[cthrumatrix]

8. stays.....with better states coming up....

[Dark Star]

6. He stays.

At least through February.

I'm hoping to vote for him March 2nd!

[democratreformed]

7. Since his campaign has said from the beginning that 4th would be

fine, then, I think he'll stay in.

[mmonk]

10. Stay

It's just one state and he has enough money to continue another round. His message is too important and hopefully he can get it out despite the attacks.

[dae]

11. Stays, he's going to win.

[returnable]

12. He stays

He has enough cash to hang around. Simple as that.

Then he's off to pick up some states on February 3rd.

The pre-Iowa tracking numbers in NH just made everyone a little greedy.

3rd or 4th in NH was the goal all along.

[Toucano]

13. Dean will win NH

narrowly, slowing down Kerry's momentum.

Then it's wide open going into the southern states. Clark will win Oklahoma and show well in NM and AZ which gives him the credibility to stay in through March 2nd.

At this point, I really think ANYTHING can happen though.

3rd in NH would be great, but 4th won't sink him.

[Quixote1818]

14. He stays in because Kerry and Edwards said thay can't compete in

All the February 3rd states do to money. Clark has the money to compete well in the south west states and propably win 2 or 3 even with a close fourth place finish. It will be a close fourth not a blow out. That makes a difference.

[jfxgillis]

15. Sigh

Look. Clark has to WIN or be STRONG second.

Here's the rule. When a candidate bets the farm on X outcome and Y outcome occurs, that politican LOSES.

Clark abandoned Iowa to CONCENTRATE on NH. So he gets a zero one place, trails badly in the other despite a concentrated effort, and he's supposed to limp on? Won't happen. Can't happen. Otherwise, Clark will have gone "all in" and lost on the "river card" and STILL tried to stay at the table.

Sharpton, on the other hand, basically abandoned IA and NH to CONCENTRATE on SC. So, Sharpton gets to carry on even if he gets less than 1% in NH.

[Adjoran]

16. Clark is leading in the latest polls

in Oklahoma, Arizona, and North Dakota. He's third in South Carolina, but within striking distance (Edwards 21 Kerry 17 Clark 14 Undecided 18).

No reason to withdraw as long as enough money keeps coming in.

[xultar]

17. Stay! Duh...

:shrug: