The true scope of Hackett's victory

[dsc]

I write this as it appears increasingly certain that this race will qualify for a free recount under Ohio law (0.5% margin). Even if it doesn't the national party of the losing candidate (probably Hackett) should pay for one. Turns out I was wrong here. Margin was 52 to 48 but I still would investigate a recount. That said, Hackett scored an amazing victory tonight.

The second district of Ohio contains all of the following counties. Clermont, Brown, Adams, Scioto, and Pike. Every last one of these counties was carried by Bush in 2004 by a minimum of 52 to 48. Hackett won four of the five with percentages ranging from 52 to 65. Adams went for Bush 64 to 36 but for Hackett 52 to 48 a swing of 16 in favor of Democrats. Brown went for Bush 64 to 36 but for Hackett 56 to 44 which is a swing of 20 in favor of the Democrats. Scioto went for Bush 52 to 48 but for Hackett 65 to 35, a swing of 17 for the Democrats. Pike went for Bush 52 to 48 but for Hackett 63 to 37 which is a swing of 15 in the Democrats favor. Even in Clermont County which Hackett lost Bush won 71 to 29 while Hackett lost 42 to 58. That is a 13 point swing to the Democrats in her home county.

In additon parts of Warren and Hamilton counties are in the second. Hamilton county, including Cincinnati proper, went 53 to 47 for Bush. The part of Hamilton county in the second district, which doesn't include Cincinnati proper, went for Schmidt 51 to 49. It looks like only a swing of 2 for the Democrats but is likely a much larger one since inner city Cincinnati is a Democratic stronghold. Warren county as a whole went for Bush 72 to 28. The part of Warren county in the second district went for Schmidt 58 to 42. That is a 14 point swing assuming that the part of Warren county that is in the second is about the same as the part that isn't.

If Kerry had done this, he would have won Ohio in a walk. I doubt Johnson did this well here in 1964. His worst swing in an entire county was 15 points, and that was in her home county. Yes, Schmidt has more baggage than Samsonite, and Hackett was helped by the fact this was a special election. All of that said, he was vastly outspent in a district that is as reliably Republican as a district can be and he still might win it. He out polled Kerry by a minimum of 13 points in every county save Warren and Hamilton. In Warren it was only 14 and I think his margin in Hamilton is likely to have been at least 15 given the part of Hamilton that actually is in this district.

He did this while opposing the war in Iraq, favoring same sex marriage, taking a harsh tone toward Bush. All the things that supposedly we can't do and win. Yes, in the end Hackett lost, but no one, not a single soul in the US, would have thought any Democrat could have beaten any Republican at any time in this district. Hackett came within a very small margin of doing so. Any statewide candidate in Ohio who can replicate these numbers as a Democrat in this district will be a sure winner in 06.

Democrats in Ohio need to study this race and apply its lessons. Hackett did fabulously well.

Bush's numbers from this link:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/county.003.html

Hackett's from this link:

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050802/NEWS01/308020015/0/CINCI

[AX10]

1. Now get us a fair elections process.

[GetTheRightVote]

2. Yes, so many lessons to learn, get the right vote would be great as well

:kick:

[Maestro]

3. Nice optimistic analysis

And what say seems to be true so I agree. It is a step in the right direction. Hackett needs to campaigning again immediately to make another run.

[merbex]

4. Nice summation - you make me feel better because as you point

out this is HUGE and a DRAMATIC turnaround in a Crimson red district

[MeDeMax]

5. beats me how she took Hamilton

51% to 49%, it is the most progressive of the lot;

So Hackett could rally all the really repub counties, yet he lost the most dem county of the lot ?

[wli]

7. you know darn well how she took Hamilton

Trouble is, we can't get a court to issue subpoenas/etc.

[dsc]

10. because the progressive part of Hamilton county isn't in the second

district. The eastern suburbs of Cincy are in the second district. Cincy proper is in the first. Bush won 53% of all of Hamilton county, which includes Cincy while Schmidt won 51% of Cincy's suburbs. Hackett did amazingly well. I would bet he swung those burbs at least 15%.

[wli]

6. neocons put the brakes on to manipulate the count when down

Anyhow, the Federalist Society has the courts locked down so there's no way to challenge the results.

[derby378]

8. Did I hear you say that this was "victory?"

WIN OR GO HOME.

That's the message right there. Either you win, or you go home. Paul Hackett fought hard and true, but he's going home. An Iraqi war veteran has been defeated by a GOP party-line fuck and her S&M campaign manager.

[dsc]

15. Before this race

I would have told you Satan could beat Jesus if Satan ran as a Republican and Jesus as a Democrat in this district.

[elperromagico]

9. And is there any doubt that Hackett should challenge Schmidt in '06?

He improved the Democratic percentage in a solidly red district by 20%.

20%. Think about that turnaround.

Schmidt has a year to prove herself to the voters of the Second District who, it seems, reluctantly voted for her.

If she fails... Say hello to Representative Hackett.

[GreenPartyVoter]

11. Can Ohioans fix the voting system there by then?

-------------------------------------------------------
Fight for election reform! Fight for Andy!
http://timeforachange.bluelemur.com/electionreform.htm

[elperromagico]

14. Ay, there's the rub.

[Halliburton]

16. he should run for Senate

it would be a lot easier for him to win. No one likes Dewine, and he would have the whole state to work with, not just oh-02.

[dsc]

20. He should consider a state wide run

Preferably Sec of State or Auditor (both are on the apportionate board which draws districts). He has name recognition in a part of the state Democrats do poorly in and also has ties to Cleveland. As much as we might like to take this district he could do more good winning statewide and he is more likely to do that in any case.

[FreedomAngel82]

12. I agree

I agree as well. I think it will show that by 2008 people WILL be hopefully ready. Hackett did very well I believe. I still believe Kerry won and same with Hackett.

[Junkdrawer]

13. I seem to remember that IMMEDIATELY after the Cobb recount...

the (Republican) Ohio legislature passed a law that would make recounts prohibitively expensive...

[GreenPartyVoter]

18. Of course they did. Why wouldn't they?

[Junkdrawer]

22. Look, they paid good money to buy the vote counting apparatus...

and it would be completely un-American to hand recount votes and depreciate their private property...

[GreenPartyVoter]

23. *lol*

-------------------------------------------------------
Fight for Andy! Fight for election reform!
http://timeforachange.bluelemur.com/electionreform.htm

[Guaranteed]

17. Outstanding post. This man must be dissected- so to speak.

He was as perfect as a candidate gets for us right now. Our leadership should take a long, good look at him.

[Mugsy]

19. "Precints reported" didn't match between links.

I noticed that while some sites said certain precints were still under 100%, the sites for those precincts were reporting 100% as of hours ago.

[dsc]

21. according to the last look at the Hackett link

100% had reported. Note that the number of precincts in Hamilton and Warren counties will be smaller in Hackett's district than in Bush's numbers since Bush was on the ballot in the entirity of both counties while Hackett wasn't.

[SeanQ]

24. Agreed!!

As I said at http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1979999#1980206
(we have a lot of threads on this ATM lol) it's an inspiring result no matter what.

Screw the DLC!! Dean needs to clean house and get the party backing canditates like Hackett running in every district we don't already have a lock on. Clean house in 06!

[I_Make_Mistakes]

25. Hackett should run for Blackwells job

[neverforget]

27. How about the Senate against DeWine?

[mtnester]

54. Actually, I was thinking Taft's job

He would be one hell of a candidate going after a spot where the outgoing Governor is at a dismal 17% approval rating.

Get Coleman and Strickland to run for the other spots..Hackett for Governor.

Ohio Dems need to select their candidates NOW, single them out, make sure there is no costly Dem primary (cause there will be ugly and costly Repub primaries) and GET STARTED NOW.

[SeanQ]

58. Good point! And although that wont help the house in 06,

having a strong, outspoken, popular democratic Governor in Ohio could be a HUGE help in 08

[Straight Shooter]

26. I'm proud of Paul Hackett. Very very proud.

:patriot:

[Lydia Leftcoast]

28. This is how districts get flipped over a period of years

You fight as hard as you can, and gradually, more and more people hear your message.

Whether the count was fair or not, getting 48% of the vote is a great initial heave-ho, and maybe 2 years of Ms. Schmidt will be all that is needed to flip the district the rest of the way.

Many times I've posted the story of the Oregon state legislative district that went from being represented by an uncontested fundamentalist Republican weasel to being represented by a liberal Democrat in three election cycles.

[mzmolly]

29. Nice post. And if we look at the bigger picture here were seeing

success at the DNC level ~ and with the entire "grass roots" movement.

Air America, Dean/DNC, DU, the grass roots, "the machine" ... it's all coming together.

[93ncsu]

30. I don't really know how much can be gleaned from this

The turnout was super-low, and if you listened to Hackett's commercials, he did not exactly run as a progressive.

2006 will be a better judge of whether or not the party has any potential. If they cannot pick up seats then, they never will.

[SteveIrving1]

31. its a win for the "Western Strategy"

Look which counties went for Hackett. All plain simple Americans in Rural counties. I call that a Victory for the "Western Strategy". Look at what Schmidt won with, upper to mid upper class suburbanites.

The rural poor and the regular folks voted for Hackett and the suburbs voted for Schmidt.

Repeat everything Hackett did but in Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, so on and so on....

[KTinOhio]

35. Exactly...

Hackett carried Brown, Adams, Pike, and Scioto Counties by around 20 points. This isn't whitebread suburbia. This is hardscrabble rural Appalachian Ohio. The biggest city in the four counties - Portsmouth - has barely 20,000 people.

No more triangulation. If we proclaim who we are and what we are about, people will listen. They all won't vote for Democrats, but GWB only carried the state by 2.1% last year. It won't take much to turn Ohio blue again.

[selgelid]

38. Offended in Topeka

I am getting pretty sick and tired of you folks labeling us as "plain and simple." As soon as you snobs quit mocking the center of the country (those who feed you) we can start winning elections... Otherwise, we can keep marching toward the right...

Sledge

[snowbear]

45. Sledge

Where did anyone on here mock or label anyone? Your comment happened to be posted to someone from Major Hackett's state -- Ohio.

But they didn't say anything negative..

Where was anyone "snobbish"?? :o :o :o Where was anyone "mocking" people?

MANY of the Democrats who post here happen to live in the country themselves.

I don't understand your comments.. :shrug:

[mtnester]

55. You totally got that post wrong

would you have perferred the phrase "regular folk" cause I think that is exactly the intent of the poster you are smacking.

BTW, welcome to DU, and we hope you have better luck figuring out the nuance.

[nevergiveup]

32. The Repubs can spin this as a huge victory

all they want but if the truth be known.....there is little cheering in Neoconville this evening.

[Broken_Hero]

33. Good Job...

For Hackett, good job indeed. Maybe this guy can run in 08?...maybe, :P

[dolstein]

34. Can we stop referring to narrow but decisive losses as victories?

At least Al Gore won the popular vote. But John Kerry lost both the popular vote and the electoral vote, and he lost the popular vote nationwide by a pretty substantial margin (and the race in Ohio wasn't anything like the freakishly close race in Florida in 2000).

Hackett ran a good race. He fought the good fight. But he still lost. And whether the Democrats can close the gap in future races in this district remains to be seen. The closness of the contest does underscore the need for the Democrats to field candidates even in solidly Republican districts. But let's not kid ourselves -- we're going to have to actually win races in some districts that have been voting Republican in order to re-take the House. Moral victories alone won't be sufficient.

[loudsue]

48. LOL! We should have known YOU would show up!!

:rofl: Dolstein, you've been doing this song & dance to undermine Dems ever since I've known you.....4 years now.

Don't you ever get tired of that "down on Dems" spiel?

"we're going to have to actually win races in some districts that have been voting Republican in order to re-take the House."

You've seen the research. You just want to send your subtle little DIGS in to the Dem party...as if the Dems aren't fighting for the life of the country --- which you KNOW we are!!!

And you sit there... with that smug little grin on your face... telling us how to "field" candidates.

Pfffft.

:kick::kick::kick:

[mtnester]

56. For one hour could you let us put a postive spin on this?

Do you live in Ohio? Do you have even the basic comprehension of what OH-2 is like?

Regardless of your persistent naysaying on this in MANY threads, the rest of us here understand that during a SPECIAL ELECTION (difficult enough) to have double digit swings in voting trends TOWARD the Dems in the reddest portion of the state is a GOOD THING FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. It bodes so well for 2006 and 2008, and that it is a damn MIRACLE he came as close as he did.

A 2.2 swing for the entire state state elects a President for us. Get on board.

[selgelid]

36. Hackett Lost

I do not understand how we can feel any sense of victory tonight. If we can not put a decorated US Marine into the USHOR what does that mean for the next election cycle? I fail to find any comfort in this outcome.... I have been bombarded with talking points about how this was supposed to be a bell weather event for us tonight.... I fail to see the payoff...

Sledge

[UrbScotty]

66. You miss the whole point.

The point is, it wasn't supposed to be close!

The Repub was supposed to win by a 2-1 margin... and she won by FOUR PUNY POINTS!

If this were another district in Ohio, Hackett would have won!

[Skarbrowe]

37. What if more Democrats came out to vote than Republicans...

before the big "duh!" heh heh, I mean, what if this special election meant more to the Democrats than to the Republicans, therefore bringing more of them out to vote than truly represents the district. I'm playing Devil's Advocate here. I'm proud of what Paul Hackett accomplished and I do hope its shows that Democrats are picking up some steam in red states and counties.

Just wondering if a lot of Republicans stayed home on this one. Truthfully, I would think they would have wanted to come out and show how they could smash this little upstart. They certainly did not do that.

Anyway, here's to Paul Hacketts political future! It looks bright indeed.

[dolstein]

40. I think an anti-tax group told Republican voters to stay home

It's quite possible that Democratic leaning voters were more motivated than Republicans, although there were a lot more Republicans in the district to begin with.

[The Doctor.]

39. I'm sorry I cannot agree...

Chances are, Hackett took a larger portion of the vote than was reported.

We are going to hear all the same stories about how election officials tallied votes behind closed doors, or the punchcards "were destroyed by humidity, but we have the count from the central tabulator so it's ok.".

The bottom line is that there is no longer a Democracy when the process is hidden from ALL the voters.

I feel sad for the small-minded fools who don't realize what's happening because they are too in the thrall of what they think of as a sports event. They will not realize that their 'opponents' are fighting for them until long after their job has been outsourced, their insurance premiums are too high to get the treatment they need, their air and water are poisoning them, and there's no recourse because all their rights to sue, pettition, and even boycott are gone because monopolies own the very fabric of the government.

And the most tragic part is... they'll happily blame whoever they are brainwashed to.

[Name removed]

41. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[senseandsensibility]

42. Welcome to DU

Does ANYONE agree with this new poster's opinion that Hackett ran as *? I haven not heard anything remotely like that from objective sources. In fact, you might say, I've heard the opposite from everyone else. So it seems kind of curious that the new poster would say that.

[Name removed]

47. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[loudsue]

49. Your link dropped my computer....

And what you posted, makes me drop my jaw.

Hackett called W a "chickenhawk". He WAS NOT HANGING IN THERE WITH w.

:kick::kick::kick:

[Name removed]

74. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[eridani]

43. You are right--that vote count NEEDS to happen!

Even if it doesn't make any difference to the end result. Such a count will be mainly on behalf of the NEXT election in that case.

[johnkerryyip145]

44. Paul Hackett For Senate 2006!!!

With these results, and with Mike DeWine's unpopularity, Hackett should be a shoe-in to become Ohio's first Democratic senator since John Glenn. Statewide, Hackett will do *much* better than he did in OH-02. With the Republican corruption, money squandering, tax increases, and job losses--along with Hackett's charisma and DeWine's lack of a personality--things are looking good here in Ohio for the first time in a decade.

I'm calling it now: Michael Coleman over Blackwell for governor, Hackett over DeWine for senator, while Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland stay put in the House...as two key legislators of the new Democratic majority.

[BQueen]

46. Study this race and Konop v. Oxley '04 for future runs

Konop was in a similar position with Oxley in '04, but didn't get as much financial support due to low expectations for success and the fact that there were so many races to contribute to. Konop did remarkably well under the circumstances (forget the percentages, but won outright in Allen County and performed more than respectably overall vs. the Oxley machine). Oxley had to spend money he could have diverted to other Repugs, at minimum (I've never seen him do a TV buy before, and he was on every other break in '04).

Thanks for the detailed analysis. Like you, I'm not surprised, but I am optimistic.

[delhurgo]

50. I'm not sure I would read a whole lot into this.

He was a very good candidate: a war hero, clean cut, nice family, very likable. I didn't know about him being for gay-marriage, but otherwise he seemed like a pretty moderate democrat. I believe on Hardball he even came out for gun-rights.

What I'm saying is that not just any anti-war, left-wing candidate would have done as well as he did. Even if some of his views were liberal, this isn't any reason to think that you can win by being on the far-left.

[delhurgo]

51. I'll just add this that I found on another thread.

Hackett, in our view, is a gust of fresh air. If we had to put a label on him, it would be Libertarian Democrat. He says what he thinks and doesn't seem to have much use for the orthodoxy, or the partisanship, of either party. He doesn't want the government telling him what kinds of guns he can own, nor does he want it interfering in family or medical decisions or taking away civil liberties in the name of fighting terror. He regards Social Security more as an insurance program than a retirement savings plan, but wants to put it on a sound footing and would raise the earnings ceiling if necessary to do so.

That was from a newspaper article. A "LIBERTARIAN DEMOCRAT", not a left-wing, liberal, progressive democrat. That's why he did as well as he did. Not partisan, for gun-rights, skeptical of big government, not for cutting and running in Iraq,....

If you think this guy almost won because he was true to left-wing beliefs you're wrong. He almost won because he appeared moderate, not liberal.

[Abathar]

52. He did run as a moderate

"If you think this guy almost won because he was true to left-wing beliefs you're wrong. He almost won because he appeared moderate, not liberal.

I lived in Dayton for several years, and I dated a girl that lived in Portsmouth for 2 of those years also, so I spent a lot of time in that area. I think one of the biggest reasons he did so well is because he was a returning Marine. That means a lot to people on both sides of the isle in the rural areas, they all know someone who joined to better themselves. Lets face it, most people don't follow politics at all like they do here, they didn't see a Democrat or Republican, they saw a guy who went there and did that and earned their respect. The super low turnout helped him also, we are far more motivated than the Repubs are, and that uniform got him a lot of votes that would have probably went the other way.

[formernaderite]

53. Philisophically I loved Hackett....

I was disappointed with his campaign ad which I viewed on his website...I'm assuming he ran it in OHio. Why did he run away from being a democrat? Why on earth did he feature Bush in the beginning of the commercial?

I think it's great he came in so close, but I sincerely hope it was not by "confusing" voters as to who he really is. I don't think we can count on winning future elections, by playing stealth democrats. I think the repubs would catch on pretty quick.

[southpaw]

57. Horse shoes and hand grenades...

I'll call it a victory when we can say 'Congressman Hackett'

[On Par]

59. If Kerry Would Have Performed This Well ?????

How do we know he didn't?

Are we to believe that in 8 short months these people changed their minds over what they saw for the previous four years?

It's the same with my county. They tell us the Democrats won the county of 136,000 registered voters by 550 votes in November of 2004. But in an May 2005 off year primary where the biggest race was for county judge (ho-hum) the voters that supposedly went for Bush ALL came back to the demoratic side by a margin of 3 to 1 ! Please. If your over 40-50 years of age, you have never ever seen this kind of voting swing.

It smells, and the odor around the Diebold machines hasn't cleared.

[Carolab]

60. Too true.

It stinks.

[On Par]

67. Thanks, I Was Beginning To Think....

...I was the only one that noticed!

[Carolab]

68. If you go to Election 2004 Discussion forum you'll have lots of company

The discussion about it rages there daily.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=203

[dsc]

72. The turnout was about a third of what it was in November

There is no county in which Hackett got more actual votes than Kerry did. Thus it is quite possible that no one changed their minds. I also think Hackett got some votes Kerry didn't on the gun issue. In the counties he won guns are a pretty important issue.

[Vinca]

61. Is it true that all the other issues on the ballot passed?

And that they had been voted down 7 times before by overwhelming Republican majorities because they will mean a tax increase? Isn't that in itself suspicious? Perhaps an overwhelming number of Democrats came out for Hackett this time, passed the other items and assumed they had given Hackett a victory as well. Sorry . . . I don't trust the Ohio voting system in the least. Didn't Hackett lose in the same county that covered holes punched for Kerry with stickers before feeding the ballots into the counting machine? I was willing to believe this was on the up and up until things swung so wildly at the end.

[Carolab]

69. Yes. There are articles about it at the Election 2004 Discussion forum.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=203

[Joey Liberal]

62. Clermont County must be a scary place

Hackett did a great job.

[jurassicpork]

63. Oh please.

There's another flagrantly corrupt republican in Congress. It's business as usual. Please stop calling this a victory. While Jean Schmidt will be swilling at the Congressional cafeteria, Paul Hackett will be back to eating fucking MRE's and dodging mortar shells.

JP
http://jurassicpork.blogspot.com

[Carolab]

70. Not really. He's a lawyer. I think he eats pretty well.

Still, as you say, "business as usual".

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=203

[ArkDem]

64. Hope this isn't the kind of victories we can expect in 2006.

[dsc]

73. This district is among the least competative in the nation

if we replicated that performance in those districts and did as much better in the rest as we do now, we would have a veto proof majority in the House. From 1980 until now, the best a Democrat did in that district is 30%. Hacket got 48%. Go ahead and find a map of Congressional districts and add just 9% to all the Dem totals. See what happens.

[CrackpotAmerica]

65. Nice Work Indeed

One thing in my opinion is certain. People are beginning to wipe the haze from their eyes. Further, I feel that they are beginning to resist the tactics of repeating repetition by Mr. Mehlman and his rotting souled minions.

I believe that the "every thing's OK alarm" has burned out its whistle. Now, we, not as (R)'s & (D)'s; but as individuals and citizens must shake up those who are still asleep. Mr. Hackett is what I see as a fresh beginning to what Mr. Kerry described as "more of the same."

Maybe we can't realize change like this over night. Rather, we can plant the seeds of opposition to this administration as Mr. Hackett has done and know the near future can lead us from this dark and brutal point in our history.

Kudos to you, Mr. Hackett!!

[Carolab]

71. Yes, but it won't help unless we FIX THE ELECTION SYSTEM.

We won't win ANY elections until we do.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=203

[jurassicpork]

75. Exactly!

Let's not forget Diebold and that it's being used in Ohio.

JP
http://jurassicpork.blogspot.com