Y'all have to understand that there are two different worlds within the 2nd District. Schmidt is a rabid foe of reproductive rights and plays that card for votes among Cincy's conservative Catholic majority. In some areas of the country where Catholic congregations are more liberal there is much less of a tendency for any candidate to draw one-issue voters to the polls. (Note: the anti-choice issue is also strong among the area's fundamentalist, evangelical Protestant congregations, which are also very conservative.) These one-issue voters can effectively cancel out traditionally Dem voters among the Cincy area's more populous minority voters.
The four easternmost counties of the district, which went for Hackett, are just as heavily Protestant, rural and much poorer, with very small minority populations. Culturally, they are what is considered among the state's Appalachian counties. Schmidt's anti-choice platform doesn't play as well in these counties, where economic distress directs voters towards broader priorities and one-issue, anti-choice votes are unlikely to sway an election.
Breakdown of religious denominations and income for "red counties"
Hamilton County:
http://www.thearda.com/FR_Index.html?/RCMS/2000/County/... In 2002, the per capita personal income in Hamilton County was $35,883. This was an increase of 22.1% from 1997. The 2002 figure was 116% of the national per capita income, which was $30,906.
Clermont County:
http://www.thearda.com/FR_Index.html?/RCMS/2000/County/... In 2002, the per capita personal income in Clermont County was $29,638. This was an increase of 25.3% from 1997. The 2002 figure was 96% of the national per capita income, which was $30,906.
Warren County:
http://www.thearda.com/FR_Index.html?/RCMS/2000/County/... In 2002, the per capita personal income in Warren County was $30,955. This was an increase of 15.8% from 1997. The 2002 figure was 100% of the national per capita income, which was $30,906.
Compare the above statistics with those for the four "blue" counties:
Scioto County:
http://www.thearda.com/FR_Index.html?/RCMS/2000/County/... In 2002, the per capita personal income in Scioto County was $20,914. This was an increase of 17.9% from 1997. The 2002 figure was 68% of the national per capita income, which was $30,906.
Pike County:
http://www.thearda.com/FR_Index.html?/RCMS/2000/County/... In 2002, the per capita personal income in Pike County was $20,845. This was an increase of 15.9% from 1997. The 2002 figure was 67% of the national per capita income, which was $30,906.
Adams County:
http://www.thearda.com/FR_Index.html?/RCMS/2000/County/... In 2002, the per capita personal income in Adams County was $19,660. This was an increase of 21.4% from 1997. The 2002 figure was 64% of the national per capita income, which was $30,906.
Brown County:
http://www.thearda.com/FR_Index.html?/RCMS/2000/County/... In 2002, the per capita personal income in Brown County was $22,815. This was an increase of 15.3% from 1997. The 2002 figure was 74% of the national per capita income, which was $30,906.
As you can see, Ohio's 2nd District is very polarized. I'm a native of Scioto County and went to college in Cincy, so I know both sides of the district's personality very well. I don't think there was any thing surprising about Clermont County's vote -- they just have too many stupid fascists living there.