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MEMO To: GOP Friends From: Carl Forti, Communications Director Ed Patru, Deputy Communications Director Re: OH-02 Special Election
Date: August ,2005 National Republicans last night retained the OH-02 Congressional seat vacated by Ambassador Rob Portman. Republican Jean Schmidt defeated Democrat Paul Hackett. The following post-election analysis may be helpful to you as you discuss the race and its implications.
Republicans Won; Democrats Lost – Republican Jean Schmidt defeated Democrat Paul Hackett by a comfortable margin, 52%-48%. Turnout in last night’s special election was 29%.
Hackett Ran as a Republican – Despite Hackett’s best efforts to nationalize the OH-02 special election, and the national media’s extraordinary interest in the race, the election was a local race and Hackett ran as a Republican. Two of his TV ads – including his closing ad – bore images of the President.
Democrats Failed to Create Wind on Ethics – Despite Democrat attempts to link Schmidt to the cloud of controversy in Columbus, Hackett still failed to win. What happened in Ohio was a microcosm of the strategy Democrats are aiming to employ nationally, namely, they are attempting to defeat Republicans by creating an anti-Republican wind.
Democrats Failed in OH-02 Despite Enormous Help – Even with an extraordinary amount of national media attention showered on Hackett, a huge last-minute influx of money from Democrat-affiliated special interests and other liberal online groups, and aggressive help from online bloggers, Democrats failed in OH-02. Despite all the national attention and online support, national Democrats failed to support Hackett. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi did not donate to the Hackett campaign. DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel also failed to lend his personal financial support to Hackett.
The President Remains Popular Among Republicans – The OH-02 special demonstrated that the President remains immensely popular among Republican base voters, and that Democrat attempts to make congressional elections a referendum on the President’s policies in districts where Republicans outnumber Democrats will not work.
National Democrats Are Extremely Vulnerable on the Issue of Taxes – Democrat Paul Hackett was defeated largely as a result of his positions on taxes. OH-02 demonstrated emphatically that national Democrats do not have credibility on the tax message and they continue to be extremely vulnerable on the issue.
National Democrats Wasted Money They Don’t Have on OH-02 – National Democrats spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on the special at a time when they have less than a third of the COH net resources available to them than the national Republicans have.
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