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This year the NH Primary is shaping up to be unusually indecisive, regardless of who wins, or to an extent, by how much. There are too many uncertainties about the race heading out of New Hampshire, where each candidate will be carrying different liabilities. The results will help some, and hurt others, but it is conceivable that none of the actual contenders will be totally knocked out of real contention before the Feb. 3rd results are also in.
Here is why. For one thing, it is a tightly packed field. The overall winner will have less than an overwhelming plurality, and it is virtually certain that the winner of NH's primary will be Kerry, or possibly Dean, and both of those gentlemen are New England native sons from neighboring States. Each has always been expected to do well in NH (when people weren't worried about one campaign or the other totally collapsing). A relatively strong showing in NH for either does not by itself prove that he can run strongly in other regions also. It is true that Dean and Kerry would be hurt if they don't finish first or second. Kerry almost certainly will be in the top two, and Dean likely as well. I doubt Kerry could survive coming in third, but that is extremely unlikely to happen. Dean possibly could.
The next tier of probabilities has Clark and Edwards battling for third, with Lieberman an outside chance to slip in there. For Lieberman, he can't afford to finish 4th. That would put him behind two other New Englanders, plus one "outsider". Lieberman doesn't have much money, and he hasn't waged an active campaign beyond NH. Lieberman would heavily bleed whatever support he had after NH, under that scenario. If Clark, Edwards, and Lieberman ended up very tightly bunched in low double digits, and Lieberman finished fourth ahead of either Clark or Edwards, the "5th place" finisher would be wounded perhaps, but still alive. Neither Clark nor Edwards are from New England, and both can play to specific strengths on Feb. 3rd. Edwards could still concentrate on trying to win his neighboring South Carolina, or finish a strong second there. Clark could also, though Edwards would likely have a clear edge in SC if Clark finishes behind Edwards in NH. However Clark has definite strength in Oklahoma and New Mexico, and Arizona also, relative to Edwards.
Why would any of this matter to a Candidate finishing 4th or 5th? Aren't there only three tickets out of NH? Not necessarily this time around. This is a very unusual election cycle. For one thing Kerry has not been the front runner very long, highly negative attention to his record is just beginning to hit the media now. He could easily stumble as a result of that. Plus there are doubts as to how well Kerry will do in the South. Dean may emerge from NH wounded, but he still has a national organization and money. The same holds true for Clark. Both Dean and Clark have laid groundwork to follow up in the Feb. 3rd States. While Dean may have more momentum than Clark coming out of NH, the follow up terrain is generally more favorable to Clark. Both of those men have developed national campaigns, are already active in the follow up states, and have war chests on hand to compete there with. For Kerry, Lieberman and Edwards, to varying degrees, that is much less true. Plus, with a dramatically sped up cycle of contests, there is little time available for them to do catch up organizing in the states that immediately follow. They may raise money to hire staff for example, but those staff will be new to the campaigns, and will need to be integrated into them. That's A tall order for a "one week campaign".
Plus, since inevitably some candidates will lose some steam on Feb. 3rd, there is the question of what will happen to their support. Will it hold firm? For similar though varying reasons, Clark, Dean, and Kucinich draw on overlapping pools of "anti-war" anti politics as usual voters. Should one or two of them falter, the third may regain momentum as that constituency support shifts toward him. Because of the different advantages and disadvantages Dean and Clark will have heading into the states after NH, it is hard to be certain which one more likely might subsequently benefit, regardless of how they finish against each other in the NH results. Clark could conceivably collapse from coming in 4th or 5th, or alternately, Dean could hit a wall, since expectations once were so high for him as a front runner, and if he can't impress in his neighboring state of NH, finishing ahead of Clark there might provide only fleeting comfort. So though it is possible both men could have disappointing NH finishes, one might still gain important support from the other's followers further down the road, that might not play out untill after Feb. 3rd, or it could happen in anticipation of those results. Then of course there is the question of where Lieberman's support would go on Feb 3rd and after, if he falls out of contention after NH. Unlikely it will go to Dean, cases can be made though for either Clark, Edwards, or Kerry getting some Lieberman votes, each for different reasons.
Come Tuesday night, if the spreads between candidates is not tightly bunched, that will make it more likely that two or more could fall out of viable contention. But a one to three percentage spread seperating second tier finishers in a very crowded field, with strong regional favorites finishing at the top, simply may not be conclusive enough to knock virtually anyone out of the running, no matter where they might come in between second and fifth. Such uncertainty would be short lived, however. Prospects should become much clearer after February 3rd, when more candidates begin to run out of excuses for continuing poor results.
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