http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,165125,00.htmlThe president is on his ranch in Texas, Congress has recessed for the summer, baseball is at its zenith and most of the nation is suffering from the heat. Taken together, that means the dog days of summer are upon us. But are these the real dog days or the cloned version of dog days? And has anyone noticed that the economy seems to be getting in on the cloning craze by cloning its own recession?
Surging layoffs are another telling parallel between today and the 2001 recession. According to an Aug. 3 report by Challenger Gray & Christmas, layoffs in July 2005 were up 48 percent from last July. In addition, planned layoffs are up by 18 percent year to date. Because this economic recovery from the 2001 recession has essentially been a jobless recovery, it's more unsettling when companies like Hewlett-Packard and Eastman Kodak announce large layoffs.
As if that's not enough to curl your hair, here's what could make the heat from these factors more difficult to deal with: our personal savings rate went down to 0 percent for the month of June, according to the Commerce Department. Even though month-to-month personal income was up 0.5 percent in June, consumer spending increased at a rate of 0.8 percent. Over the last 12 months, real disposable personal income increased 2.9 percent, while real consumer spending increased 4.4 percent. Spend more than you earn, and you don't save anything.
Consumption can exceed income for a while, as people make their purchases on credit, refinance their home or take out home equity loans. But what happens when homeowners can't refinance anymore (or don't want to because the rates have gone up), and their paychecks still aren't big enough or — worse yet — they get laid off from good-paying jobs? During the dog days of summer, nobody wants to sweat about such dire outcomes. So most of us will keep our heads low, hoping that the economy will act differently this time and not clone the 2001 recession.