No Southern problem for Dean - WP Poll Dean 30-10 over Clark in South

[helleborient]

Here are regional results from the Washington Post poll released today.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac3/ContentServer?pagename=polls&nextstep=displayQuestion&interactive=n&pollid=2003352&pripollid=&varname=q998_lea&privarname=&questCategoryType=n&questCategory=Variables.questCategory&keyword=Variables.keyword&pollDateRange=Variables.pollDateRange&ctabtype=A&startingRow=31&pollType=National&searchPollId=2003352&newsearch=

East - Dean 32 Lieberman 14 Clark & Gephardt 8 each

Midwest - Dean 32 Gephardt 13 Lieberman & Kerry 7 each

South - Dean 30 Clark 10 Gephardt & Kerry 9 each

West - Dean 29 Kerry 11 Edwards & Sharpton 8 each

The only consistent national support is for Dean...18 point or greater lead in every region!

[SahaleArm]

1. First your link doesn't work and second why another thread?

Original: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=19719

1st breakdown thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=19993

Are you going to break down each digit next?

[helleborient]

2. It does work now, sad news for Clark, and I hadn't seen the regional

Breakdown.

All those Clark supporter wishes for trouble in the South...going down the toilet.

[SahaleArm]

3. Yes end of the world of course - And what is the regional MOE? n/t

[helleborient]

6. 3 points is the MOE reported...

We're still 14 points outside the margin of error in the South.

[SahaleArm]

8. Thanks for posting your understanding of statistics...

:eyes:

[helleborient]

12. Your sour grapes rolling of eyes is very adult behavior...

[SahaleArm]

13. As opposed to parroting what you read? n/t

[helleborient]

17. Nope just demonstrating proof Clark supporters are wrong...

About Dean's "Southern problem"

I've been asking for proof they are right...and here's abundant proof of how wrong they are.

[SahaleArm]

19. The sample size of the south directly affects the MOE...

The MOE you gave was for all regions combined not a particular region where it would be higher due to a reduced sample size:)

[helleborient]

25. Yep, you're exactly right..good stretch for good news for Clark...

I guess there isn't any, though

[SahaleArm]

26. News? It is fact - unlike anything you've posted on this thread n/t

[helleborient]

27. Yeah, right, polling results are not fact...

They are results of polls...those are facts.

Clark has gone nowhere in polls since he entered the race...that is fact, too.

[SahaleArm]

30. MOE calculations are mathematical in nature not subjective n/t

[Skwmom]

49. He will have a southern problem in the general election.

Count on it.

[neverforget]

5. Wow! And not a single vote has been cast. That's it everyone.

Let's all go home because the polls show Dean is unstoppable. <sarcasm> :eyes:

[helleborient]

9. We're looking forward to winning the vote

That's why I'm going to Iowa to campaign in January...and looking forward to a Dean victory in the March primary here in Illinois.

[mouse7]

36. 1984 - Mondale had a massive lead... until 2 days before NH

Hart appeared outta nowhere and gave Mondale a real run

Nothing is over. Anybody that says it is foolish.

That said, Dean does have an awful big lead. It's not wrong to notice that.

[KaraokeKarlton]

4. So Dean has just about 1/3 of the votes nationwide

with 8 other candidates in the race? That's pretty damn amazing if you really think about it. When Gephardt drops out I think most of his support will go to Dean because of the union endorsements. Basically, he's going to get most of the Kucinich supporters should Dennis drop out. He's going to get a lot of Gephardts supporters is he drops out because of the Union endorsements. I think all of the candidates against the war are going to endorse Dean should they drop out early on. I can see many opportunities for Dean to end up polling at over 50% shortly after the SC primary.

[SahaleArm]

7. Not even 1/3 - Take a look at some of the other polls...

But it certainly makes certain people happy...

[helleborient]

10. And makes others frustrated, sarcastic and angry (n/t)

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[dajabr]

14. Something wrong with helleborient's faculties?

Do tell...

[SahaleArm]

15. Nah - Just having some fun with an old Dan Quayle quote...

dajabr is a true Democrat:).

[dajabr]

18. Wasn't it, "tried and true?" Or was it, "pure and true?" Anyway...

Explain the 'fun" part about that Quayle quote and why you chose to post it in response to helleborient. Can't wait to get in on the joke.

[SahaleArm]

22. He said I was being sarcastic so I obliged n/t

[dajabr]

23. Oh...

ha

[SahaleArm]

29. I was even less snarky above for a moment ;)

The real version: A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

The Quayled version: A mind is a terrible thing to lose.

[AWD]

16. Yep

every argument about how Dean is unelectable gets countered, and they turn to rolling eyes and complaining about the voting not started yet.

Then, when the votes roll in and he's the nominee, they'll roll their eyes and complain that he'll get crushed by Bush.

then when he wins, they'll claim they were Dean fans all along.

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[dajabr]

24. A flu outbreak? Damn that Dean! LOL(nt)

[mouse7]

37. Thank God The Doctor's In the White House for a flu epidemic

n/t

[PassingFair]

33. and that's A-OK

with me...as long as he wins!

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

20. The Poll says "If the election were held today."

At this time in 1991 Paul Tsongas was the Democratic favorite. If the general election were held at that time George Bush Senior would have been re-elected.

[mikehiggins]

28. Hey! Great! Wonderful news.

I'm sure it convinced a lot of folks here on DU to change their votes and go with Dean. After all, he's allready got a third of the democratic voters polled.

No chance on overcoming that. Why, we might even make it all the way to the convention with a contender that will win the nomination with 30% of the votes cast, though the delegate count won't reflect that too well. Of course, that might bring the electoral college to mind with some people but what the hell? We can field a candidate who doesn't even win 50% of the votes cast by democratic primary voters. What sort of a problem could that cause?

Congratulations.

[helleborient]

31. More sarcasm and bitterness from Clark going nowhere (n/t)

[mikehiggins]

34. Not at all, hell

My post may be sarcastic, but it's not because I'm bitter.

Its sarcastic because this whole discussion and debate is over. The campaigns are rolling towards Iowa and New Hampshire and all the states beyond. Nothing anyone on this DU site is going to do is going to make any difference to that unless it is outside DU in the campaigns themselves.

Its time to recognise that and put an end to all this masturbatory garbage these threads have degenerated into.

These threads are not changing one vote. Why bother posting them?

As to bitterness, I've been involved in politics for over four decades. I've seen too much to let a primary fight get me bitter. What will make me bitter is if all this bullshit lends even the slightest bit of help to the continuation of the BushCo regime this November.

Its fine to support a candidate. Go on out and do so. Don't waste time with threads like this.

[clarknyc]

35. Yeah, but remember this...

We're going to need them on our side later. So go ahead and needle, but be sure not to insult. Please.

[shivaji]

32. It just proves my point...voters are....

a lot smarter than politicians give them credit for. The more is known about Johnny come lately Clark, the republican masquerading as a democrat, the more his numbers will fall.

[AnnitaR]

38. Honest question for Dean supporters?

Which southern states do you think Dean can carry against Bush?

I can think of only one, Florida. I would bet every last dime I have that Dean has NO chance against Bush here in TN. NONE.

Dean may be polling better in the south when matched up against other candidates, but he's kidding himself if he thinks that will translate to the General Election.

[frustrated_lefty]

39. Which southern states do you think Dean can carry against Bush?

Louisiana, Florida, Tennessee.

[AnnitaR]

40. You think Dean can carry TN??

Are you serious?

Do you live in TN? I do. I can tell you without a doubt in my mind that Dean will have absolutely NO chance here. Please don't think Gore's endorsement helps him here. It does not.

I'll say Dean might have a chance in Lousiana. Florida? Who the hell knows.

[dfong63]

42. how many southern states did Gore carry in 2000?

and he still won.

[AnnitaR]

44. You have to remember also

that IF Gore could have carried his own state TN that the whole Florida mess would have never happened.

I'm not saying Dean has to have TN to win, I'm just saying he won't get TN. It won't happen.

[NashVegas]

53. Bredesen

I don't expect to see Phil endorse Howard, as so many others are doing, especially now that one of his former campaign advisors has joined up with Clark.

However, Bredesen could be helpful as an under-the-table advisor, or if nothing else, provide an example. To some people, he is still a Yankee, but he's a Yank that won the governorship.

Bush, however, I don't believe is going to sit back and chill over Tennessee. Since 2000, he and Cheney both have made several visits here- though mostly to campaign/fundraise for other Republicans.

[Gore1FL]

45. that depends on a lot of things

If the minority vote comes out in the south, there is a chance to take quite a few.

A lot is going to depend on things we don't know yet.

We don't need the South -- unless we run a Southern strategy, and that has been found a bad strategy as many times as not.
CA 55
CT 7
DC 3
DE 3
FL** 27
HI 4
IA 7
IA 7
IL 21
MA 12
MD 10
ME 4
MI 17
MN 10
NH* 4
NJ 15
NM 5
NY 31
OH* 20
OR 7
PA 21
RI 4
VT 3
WA 11
WI 10
WV* 5

Total 323

* Gore did not Win this state
** Gore won this state, but did not revieve the electors

FL is the only southern state in the bunc I have listed. What states can't the Dem (I don't care which candidate) win?

[Nazgul35]

55. you have Iowa listed twice...

don't know if this affected your final tally....

Plus, I don't think you can give up the south...we must force the repugs to compete in every state....

If not for the Presidency, than for Senate, Governor and House races....also for state legislative races...

Hell! I say make them compete for dog catcher!!!!!! This will drain the swamp that is repug money....the best way to do this is through feet on the ground....in this the repugs can not compete with us....

[Gore1FL]

57. I agree with your assessment

I am not saying we should abandon the south, only that there are enough votes elsewhere that are reasonably achievable.

My meaning s the Dems can win witout the sacred cow Southern Strategy that conventional wisdom dictates as a must-do.


I listed Iowa twice and counted the electoral votes twice too (I copied and pasted from EXCEL). I did leave off Nevada, though. Based on Yucca Mt., it is reasonable to put that state in play as well.

[ibegurpard]

46. If we can get Ohio as well as all of the other Gore states

would we even NEED any of the "southern states?" Not to say that I think it would be a wise strategy to write off ANYWHERE.

[stickdog]

47. Of course. You know the people better than they themselves do. (nt)

[HFishbine]

52. North Carolina

Dean has huge grassroots support here. We'll make it happen.

[andym]

41. How's he doing against * regionally?

[imhotep]

43. I always knew Clark was going nowhere

just because his supporters are the loudest and most obnoxious.
All hype.....

[mikehiggins]

50. Did I mention

I have you on ignore?

Best part? I won't have to see your inane reply.

Buh bye!

[TexasSissy]

48. They polled Repubs & non-registered people?

This doesn't seem to be a good poll. It was about 1,000 telephone surveys (who answers the telephone these days, unless the caller ID shows they know the person) of randomly selected people, regardless of party affiliation, and regardless of whether they are registered voters.

You'll see. Clinton, a centrist from the south, barely carried the south, I believe. I just don't believe "the south" will vote for Dean.

[HFishbine]

51. Dean has black support too

Dean has the most support among blacks:

Dean: 41%
Sharpton: 13%
Kerry: 7%
Clark: 7%
Lieberman: 6%
Gephardt: 3%
Edwards: 2%
Kucinich: 0%

[LizW]

54. kick

:kick:

[ArkDem]

56. What are those numbers against the leader of the

reich?