Unbelievable - very conservative South Dakota has a 52% negative on Bush!!

[TwilightZone]

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the Rushmore state's politics, it's very red and went to Bush easily in '04. They haven't voted for a Democrat for president in decades.

Yet, Bush's approval rating is down to 45% there, with 52% disapproval.

http://surveyusa.com/50StatePOTUS0805.htm

If South Dakota, of all places, is abandoning Bush, he and the Republicans are in serious trouble nationally. Many other "red" states don't look much better in that poll.

All I want to know is: where were these people in November?!?

The 2006 mid-terms could be very interesting.

[HockeyMom]

1. Price of Gas

must be having a negative effect even on the staunchest Bush supporter. WALLET issues.

[Wapsie B]

3. Wonder if the price will drop

a few months before the elections?

[Skidmore]

25. Wait till people have to start heating their homes this winter.

Our local paper's lead headline this morning was that MidAmerican was warning its customers that there would be a 30-40% hike in natural gas prices this winter. In a lot of peoples' minds, gas is gas, no matter where it comes from. The greed of the energy corporations is going to bury them politically.

[TwilightZone]

30. Very true. Last year was bad enough.

This year is shaping up to be much worse, particularly if large parts of the country are colder or snowier than average.

[NewJeffCT]

43. What will happen in regards to gas prices

They will hit $3.00/gallon on average, and maybe even higher next summer.

However, in late September of next year, there will be a sudden drop from like $3.30 or so per gallon to like $3.00/gallon. Fox, CNN, MSNBC, etc will orgasm with delight and start bowing at the Bush alter, forgetting to mention that gas was like $1.40/gallon when Bush took office and didn't hit $2.00/gallon until 2004.

The drop will only be temporary and soon after election day, the price will soar up to $3.50/gallon & beyond.

[still_one]

2. remember when South Dakota nominated George McGovern

Maybe the dems can get it back

[TwilightZone]

5. Even McGovern lost South Dakota!

Poor guy - I really like McGovern.

I heard him relate a story about a discussion that he had with John Kerry. Kerry asked him how long it would take to get over losing the election. McGovern said, "I'll let you know when it happens."

[babylonsister]

4. My rabidly repug brother from NC is

slowly changing his tune (YEAH!!!) and a lot of it has to do with gas prices with no end to the increase in sight. So the feeling is spreading!

[Tommy_J]

6. Thats an interesting site

The disapproval numbers in some other red states are really high - and this data is apparently 12 days old.

[elperromagico]

7. Indeed, only 9 of the 50 states give Bush approval ratings

of 50% or above.

And they're the usual suspects:

1 Idaho 59%
2 Wyoming 58%
3 Utah 57%
4 Nebraska 55%
5 Texas 54%
6 Alabama 52%
7 North Dakota 51%
8 Montana 50%
9 Oklahoma 50%

To belabor the point, here are Bush's top nine states from 2004:

1 Utah 71.5%
2 Wyoming 68.9%
3 Idaho 68.4%
4 Nebraska 65.9%
5 Oklahoma 65.6%
6 North Dakota 62.9%
7 Alabama 62.5%
8 Kansas 62%
9 Texas 61.1%

Only one state from that first list - Montana - isn't in the top nine.

[TwilightZone]

13. Those numbers in MT, ND, and OK are just as amazing.

All big-time Republican states.

Ah, but he will always have good ol' Nebraska. God, I hate this place.

[Contrary1]

17. But look at the difference in the numbers from 2004...

Idaho -9.4%
Wyoming -10.9%
Utah -14.5%
Nebraska -10.9%
Texas -7.1%
Alabama -10.5%
N. Dakota -11.9%
Oklahoma -14.6%
Montana - even at 50% is down 4% from just last month.

[sepia_steel]

37. I consider it sort of an achievement that

my home state (OK) is at 50%. That's pretty good for that shithole. :P

[TheFarseer]

8. two things

price of gas is pissing rural people off.

also, I know alot of people that don't like bush that were convinced Kerry would be worse. so they voted bush. also keep in mind, alot of people are mad at him that he doesn't declare abortion illegal and roll out the tanks to enforce it.

[TwilightZone]

12. Agreed - the farmers are realizing that the rising prices are hitting

them in their wallets, as someone else noted. Particularly after Bush made strong-arming OPEC a campaign promise (we see how well he followed through.)

[Qanisqineq]

26. yep, I know people that thought that way too

I also know a number of people that voted Bush (or just didn't vote) --that would have normally voted for a democrat-- that did so because they didn't want Kerry to have to clean up Bush's mess in Iraq. Because if Iraq really went to hell (as it is), they were afraid Kerry would have been blamed (as he would have been). All these people I know that said this are in the red state of North Dakota and some are my family members. :eyes:

[TwilightZone]

28. Hmm, that's an interesting concept.

Keeping Bush in office so that Kerry didn't get the blame/responsibility for taking care of Iraq. Misguided, but interesting.

And, as you said, Kerry certainly would have been blamed for it, particularly by the media and the Republicans.

Between the war and the trashed economy (among other issues), the next Democrat who wins the presidency is certainly going to have a lot to deal with.

[Stevepol]

9. Tell me how the vote is counted in SD & I'll tell you if it's a red state.

Who knows anymore if a state is red or blue? You can't speak about such things unless you have a democracy and we don't have one.

If we had voter-verified paper ballot and required audits for every election, we would have a democracy (if the laws were actually carried out).

But we don't.

The voting machines determine whether a state is considered red or blue. The polls, especially the exit polls for elections, give a good indication whether the voting machine result is true or false.

[TwilightZone]

11. Trust me. It's conservative.

Remember - this is the state that ousted the rather moderate Daschle (getting rid of probably the most powerful ally South Dakota has ever had in DC) and installing neo-wacko Thune.

[Old and In the Way]

14. The voting machines determine whether a state is considered red or blue.

Good point....I think you are pretty close to the truth.

[TwilightZone]

15. Not in all cases.

Bush needs no fraud in Nebraska. This is the land of Promise Keepers and ultra-religious, ultra-conservatives.

There really are red states out there, folks. Those of us who live in them are quite confident in that.

[Old and In the Way]

16. The more embedded the Republican Party is in the State,

the harder it will be to dislodge them. A political map of the degree of Republican Party control of state government (redness) and the type of election systems used would be most informative.

[TwilightZone]

27. They aren't just embedded. They own the state.

Nebraska is undeniably red and has been for decades.

You can argue about election systems (we use paper ballots, by the way), but the fact that this is one of the most conservative areas in the country will not change.

It isn't a myth, as some people seem to want to believe, and it isn't fraud. It's reality, unfortunately.

Contrary to popular opinion, it doesn't take fraud for the Republicans to win elections easily in states like Nebraska. Some Republican state legislators from the western half of the state get 90% or more of the vote in the state races.

[TwilightZone]

34. Meant South Dakota, of course.

But the statements hold true for SD, as well. I grew up there and have a lot of family and friends who still live there. Western SD is mostly ranch land and is very conservative. Most of the eastern half is farmland, and farmers there are quite conservative (which is strange - they want government out of their lives except when it's time for farm subsidy checks to be doled out.)

Sioux Falls is slowly becoming a bit more progressive, but it still isn't large enough to counter the Republican presence in the rest of the state.

Edit: well, so much for Sioux Falls - http://www.argusleader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050818/COLUMNISTS02/508180312/1001

[PurityOfEssence]

10. Yeah, but they LOVE Thune

May George McGovern live forever.

[Blue_In_AK]

18. Thanks for the site...

Even red Alaska now has 49% disapprove to 46% approve, the first time for a majority disapproval rating. This is great news. Is the tide really turning?

[progressive_realist]

19. Gosh, those voters in OH sure are having some buyer's remorse

Only 37% approval versus 60% disapproval? A lot of them must have changed their minds. :sarcasm:

[autorank]

23. Well, watch the trolls come out and say these polls are meaningless.

Sure, they changed their minds, from dislike to rage. And you've got to love Taft's numbers. 17% approval before he's indicted. This guy will make history...first Governor ever with negative poll numbers.

[Jacobin]

20. do you realize how much diesel a tractor uses?

Farm implements, fertilizer, ALL that stuff is going through the roof. Iraq Nam is making Bush^ look like a losing college football coach, and we all know how much patience freepers have with that

[TwilightZone]

35. Nice analogy.

That holds particularly true here in NE.

[riverwalker]

21. Idaho the highest at 59% approval

might explain why he is hiding out there this week.

[autorank]

22. Right and Daschle lost. Sure, uh huh! Who counted the damn votes

Election Results & Discussion Daily News: WAKE UP

SD got a new Senator, a real GQ kind of guy...and immediately lost crop supports for real farmers and one of the largest air bases in the world. I never believed the people there were foolish enough to get rid of Daschle and this strongly argues for that position.

[TwilightZone]

31. Don't write a eulogy for Ellsworth yet. It's a political ploy to make

Thune look like a hero.

It's only on the list now so that Thune can rant and rave about it in the media, "save" it from closure, and look like a hero to SD.

[Hong Kong Cavalier]

36. Hey! That's my line! (just kidding)

Good to see that someone else here recognizes the Ellsworth cups and balls game for what it is.

Thune will come out of this with his teeth a gleaming, sparkling white, his pecs pusling in righteous indignation as a halo of heroic light shines from behind him, and his cape rippling in the breeze as his spandex rides up his backside. Why? Because he's a hero!!!

(Too much exposition?)

[TwilightZone]

38. Nope, not too much!

That's exactly what's going to happen. The minute I heard that Ellsworth was on the list, I knew that they planned to use it to shore up support for Thune and make him look like he saved the universe.

Closing Ellsworth would kill Thune politically, in part because it's one of the top five employers in the state.

I just don't see the Republicans treating him like that after he knocked off their arch-nemesis Daschle.

[bribri16]

24. What's unbelievable is that it is only 52%. n/t

[TwilightZone]

29. Not really. Bush won the state 60/39, so 52% disapproval is

a very significant downturn. South Dakota is quite conservative and pretty loyally Republican, so if they're turning on Bush, he's in serious trouble.

[Freddie Stubbs]

32. 2/3 of SD's delegation in Congress is Democratic

The right kind of Democrat can win in SD.

[TwilightZone]

33. Yeah, a conservative one.

Stephanie Herseth is pretty conservative and ran right-of-center. She's stated often that it's the only way a Democrat will get elected in SD.

I'm glad she won though, as we need all the seats we can get. Plus, we're from the same hometown and almost the same age! :)

[Sean Reynolds]

39. Those Utah numbers are surprising as well.

His approval rating is nearly 20% lower than what he got in 2004.

That's a huge drop.

Though something is weird. When you click on the results and look at approval rating based on race, 88% of black Utahns support him. I know Utah doesn't have a large black population, but that's just weird.

On the other hand the growing Utah Hispanic population only gives him a 20% approval rating.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2c042e0d-c523-4336-9285-a77865c29784

[TwilightZone]

40. Good point - I think that the 88%/12% must be reversed.

Either that, or they surveyed 8 black people and 7 of them were relatives of Clarence Thomas.

I think you're right about the Hispanic numbers, as well. They look out of place, too.

I hope that the overall numbers are accurate and that we're not just getting a bit of false hope from this.

[Sean Reynolds]

41. I think the Hispanic numbers could be right.

Bush only getting 20% of Hispanics in Utah wouldn't surprise me as most Hispanics live in Salt Lake City -- which is pretty liberal. As for the black numbers, your point could actually be true. Since they make up a small number of the state's population, it might not be a shock that they only surveyed 8 or so black people and the ones they happened to survey that day were Republican.

A lot of Utah's black population is mostly built around Somalian refugees who were brought over to Utah by the Catholic Church. Most probably don't have phones or they weren't surveyed.

[FreedomAngel82]

42. It is amazing, isn't it?

This is the one positive thing that Bush "winning" has. That he will be remembered in history as a failure and worse then Harry Truman and a liar and murder. :) I can't wait till 2006 so we can impeach his ass! I hope this stays until 2008 too!

[TwilightZone]

44. He's becoming a uniter!

He has united the world against the US, and now he's uniting the US public in opposition to his war policies.

Good job, W!