Humanity faces Extinction..maybe not in the near term...but soon.

[opihimoimoi]

Do the Math...rising pops, diminishing resources...the Planet cannot sustain 7 billion Peeps

We are raping the Land, Oceans, lakes, rivers....we cut down entire forests, we pollute the World.....

Instead of working together, we divide ourselves....Bush is in position but won't cause his Controllers just don't get it...

[BlueEyedSon]

1. Carrying capacity is probably 1-2 billion

[opihimoimoi]

27. The Pubs are doing all they can to be THERE.....

[Nederland]

69. LOL

If the carrying capacity is only 1-2 billion, how come we've had more than 4 billion people on the planet for thirty years?

[don954]

70. by using the natural energy faster than produced

we use tech to increase the capacity. Renewable Energy can do the same thing, just differently and clean. It should be said, the natural carrying capacity is 1-2 billion humans.

[Nederland]

71. Define and prove it

First, define precisely what you mean by "natural carrying capacity". Second, show how you arrived at the 1-2 billion number, because quite frankly it looks like you just made it up. I mean really, you didn't even provide a link.

[don954]

72. oh man, here we go, its something that i read a long time ago

When I was getting involved in RE for the 1st time. It’s basically the volume of food produced by acre of arable land on abv on earth produced by non-mechanical means divided by the amount of food needed per person.

Basically

Pounds of food of good growing land if 100% used (non mechanical methods)

divided by amount of food a person requires to live

Equals total population supportable.

If I recall right, the figure reached about 1.5 billion give or take 50% due to the difficulty calculating the amount of growing land.

We can increase this figure by increasing production per acre through mechanical and chemical means.

[Nederland]

73. Okay

I now understand how you came up with such a low figure: you completely ignore the impact technology has had on farming. I'm sorry, but the reality is that even if the world oil supplies plateau soon, the last thing to lose its oil will be farming. In the real world (i.e. one where mechanical and chemical farming is used) the carrying capacity of the planet is in the tens of billions.

[ProudDad]

96. some facts

"A few simple calculations show why we believe it imprudent to count on technological innovation to reduce the scale of future human activities to remain within carrying capacity. Employing energy use as an imperfect surrogate for per-capita impact, in 1990 1.2 billion rich people were using an average of 7.5 kilowatts (kW) per person, for a total energy use of 9.0 terawatts (TOO; 10 12 watts). In contrast, 4.1 billion poor people were using 1 kW per person, and 4.1 TW in aggregate (Holdren 1991a). The total environmental impact was thus 13.1 TW.

Suppose that human population growth were eventually halted at 12 billion people and that development succeeded in raising global per capita energy use to 7.5 kW (approximately 4 kW below current US use). Then, total impact would be 90 TW. Because there is mounting evidence that 13.1 TW usage is too large for Earth to sustain, one needs little imagination to picture the environmental results of energy expenditures some sevenfold greater. Neither physicists nor ecologists are sanguine about improving technological performance sevenfold in the time available."

http://dieoff.org/page112.htm

"This means that Earth's carrying capacity can vary. For example, if everyone on Earth lived a typical American lifestyle with the same consumption that implies, then Earth would be able to support a lot less people than if everyone lived at a different lifestyle which involved less consumption.

It makes sense - if we all ate slightly less, recycled our materials and used renewable energy sources, the Earth would be able to hold more people."

http://www.ibiblio.org/astrobiology/index.php?page=terraform03

A good matrix of calculations at:

http://www.ilea.org/leaf/richard2002.html

http://www.economics.utoronto.ca/mturner/ec2908/readings/Daily_Ehrlich_BioScience1992.pdf

http://www.overpopulation.com/faq/natural_resources/carrying_capacity.html

http://www.sustreport.org/news/footprint2002.htm

The majority view is about 10 billion.

[Nederland]

103. These are not facts, they are opinions

For one, the entire premise the environmental impact can be measured by looking at energy use is, IMHO, terribly flawed. Whether or not the use of energy has a negative environmental impact depends entirely upon the source of the energy and what is being done with it. If, for example, you take bio-diesel, put it in a bulldozer and use it to clean up a super fund site and restore a wetland, you have a positive impact on the environment.

[opihimoimoi]

108. So is your stuff, its not facts, its opinions....

[opihimoimoi]

98. Tens of Billions??? gimme some links for that....please....

[Nederland]

102. Simple

The above poster has calculated the carrying capacity of the planet without chemical and mechanical farming to be 1-2 billion. Given that mechanical farming alone increases crop production by a factor of 20, you are immediately looking at a carrying capacity of 20-40 billion. And that's even before you add in moderate use of fertilizers...

[opihimoimoi]

106. I'm very sorry...where does the energy to run this 40 billion

people society come from? Surely you jest.

This runs counter to all the reading re this subject matter out there.

However, there is a slim chance it could work...only if all resources are used for the peoples needs...no wars, no waste, much fun, much food, much planning, comfort, happiness, etc but no wars...

very slim....

[Nederland]

113. That's another issue.

If your post was about how peak oil is going to result in a massive change for society you'd get no disagreement from me. I merely took issue with your original assertion that "Humanity faces Extinction".

[opihimoimoi]

114. That is the issue...we face dire times due to misuse of the vast

energy left for us to use by nature....when that energy runs out...we risk ourselves without addressing the prob in an effective way..

The idea is: WE SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR SOLUTIONs.....and implementing them....

[Mairead]

145. Definition of carrying capacity

The level of population of a species that can be sustained indefinitely. In other words, that can be sustained WITHOUT consuming non-replaceable energy sources, WITHOUT catastrophically depleting fish stocks, WITHOUT melting the polar ice caps, etc.

Which means that we have long since passed the earth's carrying capacity. Estimates based on multiple factors say that we're 2X to 5X over our limit.

http://www.ilea.org/leaf/richard2002f.html

[opihimoimoi]

152. The effects of over capacity have been recognized asome time ago

but few listened and worse, no one did anything serious about it except sound warnings...


Even worse, guys like Rush Limballs say there is no such thing a GW caused by man, and that its cyclic....now, science has proven him once again off the mark....

Instead of efficiency,, we go for WASTE. We humans have been a victim of a plot to WASTE by the oil Companies for their obvious Profits...

[Greyhound]

148. you also fail to address, or even acknowledge the consequences

of this technological farming. Sure we can produce many more times the old, natural crops, but what about the long-term effects of this? Most Countries in Europe won't even let our agri-products in due to concerns about these effects. Even the farmers that try to grow heirloom crops can't cause the GMO seeds blow into their farms from the neighboring farms and contaminate their crops.

[opihimoimoi]

153. Topsoil/Water Crisis...nutrient shortage.....pesticide resistent bugs..

ongoing probs will be intensified if we factor up 6 X more farms...

Answers come in the form of new strains,seeds/cuttings/clones/systems
(the advanced kine), hydroponics/drip feeding/poly cropping/advanced animal husbandry/etc.

They hate us for our WASTE....we even waste our opportunities...

[mhr]

137. Your Ecological Footprint - Take The Quiz

www.earthday.net/footprint/index.asp

My footprint: Four Earths if everyone on the planet lived like me.

[Mairead]

155. Mine was 3 earths, but it's a biased metric

since it assumes the current population as a given and implies that we're consuming more than our share. Unless you and I were to live in cardboard boxes in a doorway, eating at Chez Dumpster, there'd be no way to escape their 'using too much' conclusion.

It would have been equally valid for them to say 'You are doing a poor/fair/good/excellent job at reducing the burden on the earth, but that is not enough. For Earth not to be in danger, everyone on Earth would have to live as you do AND the population would have to be 66%/75% smaller than it is today. Unless we soon find a way to permanently reduce our population to a sustainable level, Nature will certainly reduce it for us through famine or disease or both'

[RobertSeattle]

2. Dude - worry about IMPORTANT things like missing blondes!

:evilgrin:

[opihimoimoi]

16. LOL, Really, we worry about mundane shit..prolly distractions

foisted on us brainwashed dudes.....Oh well.....

[oscar111]

3. "ALL URANIUM BACK IN THE GROUND" - dont forget The Bomb is spreading

sooner or later, it will be used again.

WW2 was a nuclear war. 2 bombs.

man is not wise enough to handle uranium.

[opihimoimoi]

17. Ya got that right.....we are so immature, still on a primitive Level

Tech smart but Social Stupid...

4. big problems

I heard one of the astronauts had pointed out that she saw a big hole in the atmosphere, but the media didn't really bring this out, they just mentioned it. I think like in the movie Jaws, "they won't take things seriously, until they get bitten right in the ass", or something like that. :smoke:

[opihimoimoi]

18. Why we reject Reality??? Arrogant Delusion allows the phenomenon...

[BoneDaddy]

53. yep

"I think we need a bigger boat"

[JDPriestly]

5. He thinks the end is ordained by God in Revelations.

I think Revelations describes a spiritual journey. The fundamentalists (apparently also including the Pope and those who practice Catholic teachings on birth control) think it presages the end of the world - Armageddon. Bush doesn't care and neither do the fundamentalists because they think ending the human race is a good thing. What can you do in the fact of that logic.

[opihimoimoi]

19. Pray a lot.....then work Harder.....to reach for higher levels in thinking

solving....

[Ron Green]

6. I got my money on the Ebola Virus ...

"...somebody bet on the bay."

[Mist]

9. Hmmm, I'll bet on the avian flu. n/t

[Ron Green]

10. You may be right. In any case, I think the very first critters will be

the very last.

[opihimoimoi]

20. Peanuts compared to world wide FAMINE

[arewenotdemo]

74. Yeah, for some time I've thought that viruses would end up

saving the Earth from the scourge of humanity...

[Lady Effingbroke]

7. If not outright extinction, at least a massive die-off.

Humanity reminds me of Proteus vulgaris, an organism I studied in microbiology. Like Proteus, we multiply and swarm, in the process consuming all available resources...followed by die-off after resource depletion.

[mark11727]

15. That's just what Agent Smith said in "The Matrix"

[rman]

44. so?

[opihimoimoi]

21. ED ZACHERY, a massive die off to meet the other end of the equation,

available food/water

[Silverhair]

26. ALL life does that, unless the population is controlled by something

outside it, like predators. Since we don't have any predators to keep our numbers down, we will multiply until the massive die off. And that massive die off will be fast from starvation and wars and disease.

Those also happen to be the four horsemen of the apocalypse. War, Famine, Disease, & Death to be released in the Last of Days.

[opihimoimoi]

36. wasn't FLOOD in there somewhere? jus askin

[Silverhair]

38. No. That's in Genesis, at the begining of the Bible.

The four horsemen are in the Revelation, the last book of the Bible.

[JDPriestly]

41. This does not have to happen.

Mankind can learn to control reproduction. China is on the way. I hate the thought of enforced family planning, but that is what the future holds. The policies of the pope, the fundamentalists and the Muslim extremists will ultimately result in extreme, mandatory birth control.

[Nederland]

64. Not necessary

You don't need enforced family planning. History shows that once women are educated and free to choose, population growths fall naturally. You don't need to force people to do anything, you need to free them to make their own choices.

[Bo]

117. What ever happen to 0 population growth?

remember them

[Silverhair]

126. That was a couple of billion people ago. NT

[0rganism]

130. 0 population growth WILL HAPPEN, it's just a question of when and how

opi's original point does have some merit; you simply cannot have sustained exponential growth in a system of finite resources. However, there are ways in which human growth will be constrained if we refuse to do it ourselves.

[opihimoimoi]

142. God will cull us with an asteroid, Mega Wave, Horrific Disease,

Nuke War, etc......

The survivors will most likely be using the guide book found next to the old ZOO. How to care for Creatures 101.01 through 304.78

[arewenotdemo]

75. Agreed

For all the damage they've done to the Earth with their take-over-the-world breeding schemes, the popes and their ilk should have been drawn and quartered.

You know, the same way they took care of the pagans, witches, and freethinkers.

[opihimoimoi]

78. Drawn and quartered...yup, they have enough guilt to warrant that...

[Silverhair]

127. I think it is already too late. NT

[Double T]

8. It's A Race To See What Will Wipe Us Out First......

continued overpopulation or weapons of our own mass destruction. The human species does not have the intelligence to contain itself, therefore its destruction and the destruction of everything around it is inevitable.

[opihimoimoi]

22. IGNORANCE is what will drive us to join the dinosaures

11. extinction

also this is something our president should be leading the world on, taking care of our fragile earth, and putting clamps on industry, instead of bringing "democracy" to the middle east. show me the money, is the mindset of those in power. I think Blair is showing some leadership in this area.

[opihimoimoi]

23. Our Pyscho Prez has a mind filled with loose screws....

[roguevalley]

12. algae blooms in the mediterrannean. death in the bottom of the

ocean along the coasts. the arctic melting. amazing.

[Karenina]

13. Poisoned food, water and relationships

[opihimoimoi]

24. And still the Band Plays on....ignoring GWarming is so devastating

we deserve Death because not enough of us made the others AWARE....

[robcon]

14. I disagree strongly.

THere is absolutely no science behind the "extinction" myth you are proposing. There is no upper limit on humans, or any species on earth, as long as there is technological progress, IMO.

The best way to limit population is to spread the middle class via economic growth: there is no surer "law" of social science than middle class people have fewer babies.

[opihimoimoi]

25. Math is my confirmation....No Upper Limit?? try 87 Billion peeps

The Social Progress has not kept up with our Tech advances....Boobs are in charge of Bombs sez it all.

[Nederland]

63. What math?

You haven't posted any math proving anything.

[opihimoimoi]

76. Unchecked Population Growth leads to lack of resources sooner or later

We are now in the throes of it....

The curve sez it better

Rising Pop

Diminishing food/water/energy

We are in the zone of IMPACT right now...soon it will become deadly...There is still a window to correct....but we waste our monies on shit instead of addressing the prob....

[Nederland]

83. Here's your fallacy

Population growth is not unchecked, it is limited by food. Right now we have a situation where the people that produce the food, the first world, are experiencing falling populations. This is a completely sustainable situation, even if it means that millions in the third world die.

[opihimoimoi]

100. Demographics indicate a rising world pop while the food supply dwindling

A small shift in the wrong way...and its famine

BTW, addressing future food shortages is not new. We do have a Dept of Ag but the budget for this aspect is very little to nonexistent.

And whats wrong with playing SAFE? Nothing bad happens by making more food. Since when thats a bad idea?

[Nederland]

104. Missing the point

You are looking at the human population as if it is a homogeneous whole like a culture of bacteria. It is not. The human population has a huge gap between the rich and the poor, with the rich growing far more food than they need. The fact that at some point global food supplies may at some point exceed global food demand is irrelevant because that food is not distributed evenly across the population. The rich will always have more than enough food for themselves, and they will survive. Not a pleasant thought, I agree, but it is the cold hard truth.

[opihimoimoi]

123. should we not look for solutions, just let it go, depend on Destiny?

I don't think so....

[0rganism]

128. Look carefully at what Nederland's saying

The ones up against the wall on this carrying-capacity problem aren't the people in the stable, agriculturally-developed nations. It's Africa and parts of Asia and latin America that will see the most devastating impact of any shortages. Meanwhile, the population growth rate in the developed world has dropped considerably, and will probably stabilize at 0 net within a century if it hasn't already.

So yes, people are going to die, and people are going to die in vast numbers. But those numbers are going to be largest in Africa, unless those countries get their shit together pronto. Africans will be dealing with famine, plagues, and wars of various sorts on an unimaginable scale while "1st worlders" are figuring out nanotech and gene therapy. A billion people could die prematurely in the next thirty years on that continent alone, and that in itself will not spell doom for humanity at large.

Our propensity for delivering food and medicine to these doomed populations is only going to prolong and even worsen the problem. It's barely a quick fix, and definitely not sustainable. If we were really concerned with their well-being, we would relocate the people to places where the food and medicine already is.

[opihimoimoi]

132. When he says the Earth can sustain 40 billion peeps....I kinda wonder

[Nederland]

135. The specific number is irrelevant

Whether its 40, 20, 10 or 5 billion doesn't matter. The point is that the human population as a whole is not in danger of extinction because resources are not divided equitably. Those that can feed themselves will survive and those that can't will die--just as its always been.

[opihimoimoi]

138. Allow me to clarify, Extinction doesn't have to happen over night,

might take a few years, maybe 1,000 years or more.....

With that said... Extinction then comes into 2 classes....quick kine, or slow kine....

With a lack of resources, we Humans will most likely fall into the realm of being unable to get off this Earth to form Space Cities, our next level sorta speak. From there, using the resources of the moons/asteroids, Humanity could then move on to the Interstellar/ intergalactic Levels....through the means of thousands of space fleets ala Star Trek.

If we Humans remain Earth Bound....we will be Extinct in due time.

If, in the mean time, we have a cataclysmic event resulting in a die off, leaving back 20,000 or so surviving peeps....then the survivors will indeed have Heaven on Earth ...most likey stay Earth Bound...

for awhile....

Space is the only way to escape Extinction in the long term...Earth will someday die due to the Sun's life span.

In the mean time...Food is one thing, the ability to defend the food, resource, oil, is another. In good times, your "food" might be safe, but in hard times, aggression can and will take your food away.

The Mentality of Humans at this point is far below of the Village Level where we share and care for each other. Far too many mimic Bush and his followers...greed/selfishness/etc bringing in a whole new ball of fire...into the equation....

[Double T]

28. In the last 200 years, humans have decimated the available resources...

of this planet. Extinction is inevitable as the collective population of this planet continues to conduct business as usual. The biggest problem is no one wants to face the current conditions of our dwindling resources and how quickly we have arrived to this point. The current condition can not be corrected by technology as it is a human behavior problem.

[opihimoimoi]

32. EWxactly, Humanity needs a wakeup call before the point of little or no

return. Time is of the essence...now is the time to make it easier on our kids as well as ourselves..

Instead, we waste our resources on distractive shit...non producing, not solving ignorance, and so forth, We are killing our future and ourselves at the same time...

We want fun and we want it NOW...forget everything else...Mom, Apple pie, and FUN....

Its a Collective Self Extinct by Ignorance....

ET Antropologists will marvel at our stupity...we had it all(resources) only to blow it on FUN....

Nature teaches us Profit and Loss....We have ignored a BASIC RULE...

We are going for the short term and negating the long term...a loss.

We consume more than the Planet offers...arrogantly so ....now we stare at very hard times...

[Karenina]

29. Unlimited growth is the mentality

of a cancer cell.

[opihimoimoi]

33. A Virus on the Planet Cell called EARTH.....destruction from within...

[Yupster]

30. No max on population if

we can expand our habitat infinitly.

We need to be working toward living on other planets.

If we only live on this earth there will have to be some upper limit on capacity.

[opihimoimoi]

34. We have passed it sometime ago...the limit...we are in a deficit mode...

hence the equation...too much consumption and no resources = Famine, slow death....lingering Humanity without the resources to escape this Planet to move to the next level....

Not every Species makes it across the Highway of extinction..most meet up with 18 wheelers.....

[Nederland]

62. No evidence for that

There is absolutely no evidence to support the contention that we have surpassed the carrying capacity of the planet yet. None.

Get your facts straight. The whole theory of the "population bomb" was discredited years ago.

[opihimoimoi]

79. No EVIDENCE? Try looking at this whole Planet...Look at who is eating

and who barely ekes out a subsitance? Periodic Famines are ongoing...and getting worse.

we live in a Negative mode...we use more energy than what is available ...Nature has given us stored energy in fossil fuel(profit, if I may,) but soon we use that up too. Once oil becomes rare...the slippery slope begins...

[Nederland]

84. Wrong

A smaller percentage of the world population experiences famine that 30 years ago. If your premise was correct and things are actually getting worse, we would see those percentages going up, not down.

[opihimoimoi]

85. For the short term, you may be correct...but soon, if there is no system

in place to avoid Famine...it will come in a crash not seen before...

[Nederland]

105. There is a system in place

Its called supply and demand. The portions of the world where food demand exceeds food supply will experience famine, the portions where food supply exceeds food demand will not. In this sense the "crash" that you talk about is already happening. Famine is already occurring in the poorer areas of the world that cannot feed themselves (or produce something else that can be traded for food). This system, though tragic, is perfectly natural, sustainable and can and will continue indefinitely.

[opihimoimoi]

111. So we let peeps unfortunate die off? Just because we let them?

without at least trying to solve for a solution? This is heresy, cruel, not what Christ taught....

Humans are stunningly in delusion if we cannot solve for the answers to make this world a better place...Myopic and Selfish at the same time...

[Nederland]

112. No

I never said that. I merely take issue with your assertion that the human race is doomed due to over population. Its not.

[opihimoimoi]

115. Come, we go drink.....

[JDPriestly]

42. I'll believe it when I see it.

Our human form of life is not likely to be compatible with very many planets, if any.

[theHandpuppet]

49. So we're like cockroaches?

Maybe it's time to think about zero population growth rather than taking over the universe to accomodate our reckless, selfish and uncontrolled breeding.

[Yupster]

57. If we don't get across to another planet then

extinction is assured as a comet or plague will eventually take us out.

Diversification of habitats is our only hope against extinction.

[theHandpuppet]

58. Overpopulation will take us out long before then

We need to stop breeding like bunnies before we suck the life out of the planet we inhabit now.

[opihimoimoi]

77. We are a canceresque VIRUS on a cell...Earth...

[Yupster]

89. Well I just have one kid, but

how are you going to stop others from having five?

[opihimoimoi]

91. Its their right to have as many kids as they wish...at this point.

answer lies in education...slow but thats all we got...Perhaps a die off of several million will encourage peeps to look at our probs and agree to its solution...and take the steps....

[dpibel]

156. Strange, that

The feeding of the population boom has been the product of technological progress almost exclusively in the form of technological progress in the utilization of oil. Such much-vaunted (and, ultimately, failed) signs of progress as the "green revolution" relied heavily on mechanization and petroleum-based fertilizer and pesticides.

That is, it's energy extraction technology, not just any old "technological progress" that has fueled the population boom.

As for the "no upper limit on...any species," tell that to the extinct ones, which seem to have benefited not at all from technological progress. Technology may have made it possible to clearcut vast swathes of the Amazon rainforest, but it also sure has provided an upper limit on a whole bunch of species.

[opihimoimoi]

161. More than a Mouthful...a bit diff to chew and comprehend for the sheep but

Thank you very much.....

And I thought Conservatives played it safe?

[mtnester]

31. 2012 fer sure

:evilgrin:

[opihimoimoi]

35. If the Pubs retain control of this Nation.we doom ourselves to more misery

Its the Pubs who block Humanities Advancement toward the next Level...

[mtnester]

37. I hear that

fun reading http://www.halexandria.org/dward415.htm

[opihimoimoi]

45. Thanx for the link, got it saved for indepth reading ltrs....

Kinda spooky man who the hell knows, maybe ET guys gonna return???

[mtnester]

51. There are so many theories and beliefs out there

It is interesting reading after all. Some of this you will also find discussed in the DU groups in Astrology, etc.

Some of it I find fascinating, some of it...well, it is still interesting to read.

[LandOLincoln]

39. Yes, and GOOD RIDDANCE.

What was it Bill Hicks said?

We're a "virus with shoes?"

Except viruses are, on the whole, a lot smarter than we are. Always adapting, always mutating. Smart little buggers. They--along with the cockroaches--will inherit the earth.

Us--we'll Inherit the Wind. Dubya's working on that now.

[opihimoimoi]

46. By not Evolving Socially...we embrace arrogance and greed...

among other neg things....

[sarahlee]

40. And . . . Anthrax outbreak kills hundreds of cattle

Did you see this today:
Anthrax outbreak kills hundreds of cattle

ENDERLIN, N.D. - An anthrax outbreak has killed hundreds of cattle in parts of the Great Plains, forcing quarantines and devastating ranchers who worry how they will recover financially.

More than 300 animals in North Dakota have died from anthrax in what officials call the worst outbreak among livestock in state history. In South Dakota, at least 200 cattle have been killed. Two ranches in Texas were quarantined last month after anthrax was found in cattle, horses and deer, officials said.

<...>

Although anthrax didn’t gain public notoriety until the still-unsolved mailing attacks that left five people dead in 2001, farmers have been dealing with the disease for decades. Spores that cause anthrax can sit dormant in the ground for as long 100 years, said Charles Stoltenow, an extension veterinarian at North Dakota State University.

Weather factors
“It just sits there and waits for the right environmental conditions to come around,” he said. “You can’t predict it.”

Unusually wet conditions in June, along with high heat and humidity in July, likely played a factor, veterinarians said. Some areas of southeastern North Dakota had more than a foot of rain in one month.

“We’ve had anthrax before, but not of this magnitude,” said Andrew Peterson, a veterinarian at the Enderlin Veterinary Clinic in North Dakota. “It started on July 1 and the reports have been daily since then.”

More....
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8996757/

I did not see it on ANY of the news programs today.

[opihimoimoi]

47. Deadly but Famine out deaths it 7009 to 1. still,something to contend with

[sarahlee]

66. True

but cattle (and effected wild game - noted that deer were also effected) are a part of the food supply that helps prevent famine. An inefficient one, but still a factor if global warming enhances conditions for the breakouts globally.

[opihimoimoi]

87. Unless we stem the Tide of Ignorance, a great Famine will occur

[rman]

43. "Carrying capacity is low" is an argument used by population reductionists

Carrying capacity would be much higher if it wasn't for a few greedy bastards.

Hoarding of wealth and resources is the main cause of mass hunger and disease.

[opihimoimoi]

48. The Primitive Pubs are not even on the Village Level...the Help Your

Fellows Mode .... the Pubs are below Whale Shit...

[Mairead]

146. "Carrying capacity would be much higher"

I don't think there's any evidence for that, is there?

The multivariate estimates I've seen that offer hope for higher numbers do so by assuming we'd all live as low-tech peasants. The ones that assume a European-level life seem to agree that we're over our limit by a factor of 2 or so already. And at a US-level of consumption, we're already over by a factor of 5 or 6!

[renie408]

50. This highlights my theory...

about the difference between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans are short term thinkers and Dems are long term thinkers. Dems worry about caring for the environment because they see the long term implications. Repukes think about exploiting the environment because they want maximum profit NOW. Weird, huh?? That the party that sells itself as responsible and conservative is really exploitive and irresponsible?

[Double T]

54. Republicans are psychopaths, they sell themselves as....

responsible and conservative but are many things far more heinous, reckless and irresponsible.

[opihimoimoi]

80. Pub Exploiters are the answer to self EXTINCTION....Delusional

approch to life....

[trof]

52. Want a good scare? Google "thawing Siberian tundra"

Arctic Siberia is a million square kilometers of permafrost tundra. It has been frozen since the last ice age. It is now melting. Melting faster than they originally thought. Initial estimates of the potential locked up methane-a very serious greenhouse gas- that will be released have seriously alarmed climatologists. They consider this event to be the potential "tipping over point" of drastic climate change.

[opihimoimoi]

81. Someone oughta be telling RUSH....He is still in DENIAL along with his

15 million hard core dittos....

[Puglover]

55. Maybe not extinction

But significant downsizing. Read the article over at "truthout.org" on Avian Flu. If that doesn't get your knickers in a twist I don't know what will.

[opihimoimoi]

82. RapaNui..Easter Island...went off on Population Growth...came to

a point of infighting and cannabilism....scarey? It happened.

[Puglover]

56. Delete dupe

[Nederland]

59. Wrong

People like Paul Ehrlich have been making predictions like these for decades. They've always been proven wrong. At this point the UN population projection curves show that the global population is poised to plateau and then drop off well before resource constraints are met.

IMHO, underpopulation is going to be the big problem facing many societies, especially aging first world societies like Europe.

[robcon]

60. I don't think underpopulation is a problem with humanity.

It will take a significant transition, and will cause economic problems, as some pensions are not fundable without a growing labor force. Europe's transition will be a learning experience for other nations.

But declining population for the planet as a whole is decades, if not a century or more away, IMO. When the planet has a solid middle class across almost all countries, the population will level out, then decline. In the meantime, the population growth will continue to decline... approaching zero.

[Nederland]

61. UN projections

On edit: Sorry, I posted a chart that was China only. Looking for a global chart...

My basic point, however, is that the original poster is horribly wrong. Theories about population explosions killing off humanity are long discredited due to a failure to distinguish between first world and third world populations. Treating the global human population as if it were a collection of homogeneous bacteria is woefully inaccurate and produces the kind of ridiculous predictions that Paul Ehrlich made in the 1970s.

[sarahlee]

67. unsubstainable capatalism

I have always believed that our system of capitalism is unsustainable because it is dependent upong increasing populations and constant consumerism. The consumerism is dependent on finite resources. And people don't like having to recycle...

[Nederland]

68. Not true

Capitalism is not dependant upon increasing populations. I'm not sure why you believe it is. Can you elaborate?

[Blue_Tires]

65. lol...these people have the answer!

http://www.vhemt.org/index.htm

[opihimoimoi]

86. Planetary Mangagement 101 through 364.02 sez the longer we wait

the higher the pain...

[Nimble_Idea]

133. "If sex is an urge to procreate, then hunger's an urge to defecate."

lol

[alfredo]

88. We are the last of the Homo Genus. All others have gone extinct

Are we the last of a failed experiment?

I think some isolated populations could survive, but that depends on just how hot the earth with become in the coming decades. Will the earth become a carbon copy of Venus?

[opihimoimoi]

90. We could do it but the prob lies in the embracing of Fantasy...Prayer will

save Humanity"......The Rapture will take us good fellas away"

etc

etc...


Can I seel you a bridge?.....

[alfredo]

92. I can't wait for the Rapture.

Imagine all the great stuff left behind for the rest of us. big screen TV's, cars, riding mowers, no waiting for a table at O'Charley's. I can't wait.

[opihimoimoi]

93. Me too...couldn't be soon enough.....

[alfredo]

101. No longer having to live in fear of reprisals if we slip and let

a four letter word pass our lips, love someone not on their approved list, or if we are caught drinking or smoking something they disapprove of.

[opihimoimoi]

107. The Goody Two Shoes of Doris Day is long Past...why are Pubs addicted

to them days?

[alfredo]

109. They lack the intellectual and emotional tools to

cope with everyday reality.

[opihimoimoi]

110. thus they delve into FANTASY??? LoL..."The DEED to the Bridge is BOGUS?"

To FOOL is to RULE...

The Sheep are slowly finding out the Shepherder is demented...

[alfredo]

118. Too many will gladly walk into

the slaughterhouse.

[opihimoimoi]

120. or partake willingly of the COOL AID

[alfredo]

124. There's a big difference between being fleeced and

being in the stew.

[opihimoimoi]

125. America got fleeced all right.....now we gatta pay off all those deficits

BushCo ran up....7 Trillion and counting....

What was that about a stew? LOL

[alfredo]

129. A lamb stew over coucous.

[opihimoimoi]

131. A good Cuban and fine wine should be included....

[alfredo]

134. I would ammend that to be a fine

"Jamaican" and some fine wine. Stopped using tobacco.

[opihimoimoi]

140. No Tobacc....then perhaps some herbs???

:smoke:

[alfredo]

141. Unless it is illegal then

I will have to make sure the windows are closed, the wind direction isn't toward a freepers home,

[opihimoimoi]

143. Come, we go burn

[alfredo]

144. Let me get my hat.

[opihimoimoi]

149. Kona or Maui??? LOL

[alfredo]

150. Harrar

Extra credit if you know where that is.

[opihimoimoi]

151. Sounds like near Kingston....but I was referring to "type of" rather than

local....Wowie or Gold??

That was the ole daze, now its...Good shit, stunningly good...Da Bes Shit...

[alfredo]

158. Harrar is the coffee region of Ethiopia. It is also

where the best smoke was grown. It did look like Jamaican, light green leaves and large light colored seeds.

They called it hashish. They first learned of its power by throwing a plant into a campfire. They liked the smell of the smoke, so they would breathe deep the aromatic vapors. That is how they found the other qualities of the herb.

[opihimoimoi]

159. I learn something occasionaly but this one is a DOObsy

Luv it,

Come, we go burn one :smoke:

[alfredo]

162. already got my hat.

let's roll.

[opihimoimoi]

163. LOL, meet me at the Luau with those Hula Dancers...

[alfredo]

164. Never had Poi, should be fun.

[opihimoimoi]

165. Its OK, Its a POI FREE Luau...no poi, sashimi instead w wasabi

[alfredo]

166. that's more like it.

[FormerRepublican]

94. The problem with fighting with nature is that nature fights back.

The Earth hates to get out of balance, and inevitably introduces mechanisms that push us back into balance.

Bird flu, SARS, super-bugs, and a ton of other nasties lie on our horizon.

There'll be a major culling soon. Our government is looking the other way while bird flu festers into a pandemic. LIHOP? You decide.

[opihimoimoi]

99. Its MIHOP....it sure looks it to me.....

[ISUGRADIA]

95. Not extinction but collapse and famine

think Mad Max type of society

[opihimoimoi]

97. Scarey....but if addressed, can be avoided.....

[Ripley]

116. No offense opihimoimoi...

But this sounds eerily similar to "Jesus is coming soon" and I don't buy that either.

There is a church in Mississippi near Gulfport that looks like a compound. It has a huge obelisk type monument at the gate. Engraved upon it are these words: JESUS IS COMING SOON.

I've seen this monument for years on my way to Biloxi. I don't know how long it has been there. But "soon" usually doesn't mean years.

I understand you are speaking about global degradation, which does take years. But the words still bug me.

Peace.

[opihimoimoi]

121. But its based on MATH....the numbers don look good for the long haul...

[Nederland]

136. No

Its based upon the false assumption that global resources are divided equitably. In post after post you ignore this fact.

[opihimoimoi]

139. I never said resources are divided equitably...who the hell said that?

[Nederland]

154. You did

It is implied in posts #76 and #100.

[opihimoimoi]

160. Just checked to make sure.... I said nothing of the sort.

Come, lemme pour you a cup

[Mairead]

147. "global degradation, which does take years"

Wrong tense, I think: has taken years.

We have almost driven fish populations to extinction--it's anyone's guess whether there are enough left to maintain genetic diversity.

We have driven many animal and bird species to the brink of extinction.

We seem to have passed the tipping point for global warming, which will accelerate as the Siberian permafrost gives up its methane.

We are clearcutting large reservoirs of biodiversity such as the Amazon and SE Asian rain forests, driving to extinction native species such as the orang population. (And accelerating global warming even further by reducing Nature's ability to sink CO2 and supply oxygen)

We are so densely packed that it's thought that there's no longer any likelihood of further evolution in our human species.

The historical record should give us pause: a very small group of humans came to the Americas in paleolithic times and within a shockingly short time had hunted most of the large-mammal species to extinction.

We are not a foresightful species, and Nature is unforgiving of stupidity.

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

119. Then that just means we have to work harder to kick out the bastards

The Bushies and the nutjob wing of the evangelicals who think that ruining the environment would help to bring about the Rapture. I wouldn't be surprised if a Malthusian-like crisis does hit some places and we suffer a population drop, but who knows? There's a surprising consensus among Americans of many political stripes that the Bush screw-the-environment philosophy is unacceptable. So I wouldn't be surprised if a bona fide pro-environmentalist candidate (like Gore or Clark) wins election in large part because of his or her environmental views. In any case, hopefully in some parts of the world where population really is outstripping available resources (such as in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia), there are also moves afoot to, for example, improve girls' education and provide more microcredit to poor men and women starting businesses, acts which tend to give women more control over their own family planning and, in general, improve the social safety net for the local communities-- reducing population peacefully.

Incidentally, we should be careful about sounding too overtly pessimistic. There are times when I feel like throwing up my hands in intense frustration at the damage the Bushies and other corporatist screw-the-land types wreak, and then there are other times when I'm pleasantly surprised at what individuals and ecological defense organizations have managed to accomplish. The problem with this sort of pessimism-- for Democrats and environmental organizations-- is that it's devastatingly damaging toward productive action, and it loses us a lot of support. Defeatist attitudes become inherently self-defeating, as Greenpeace for example has been having to emphasize to some of its members. There really is broad support for better environmental protection, even among many hardened conservatives and evangelicals. Like any other successful group, we have to be furiously determined and unyielding in ensuring that this support translates into productive action.

[opihimoimoi]

122. Yup, we need to produce ANSWERS and SOLUTIONs...like rightr

quick....

[whatever4]

157. I'd say, don't worry about it

becaues I think depleted uranium will take away many life-sustaining issues. There won't be as much life. It won't matter. Just my opinion.

But, as a constructive exercise, I have taken to praying to the gods of metals and uranium to ask to please not hurt us as much as it could. All I can do is ask.

What we need are uranium magnets. Anyone have some?