Dean's Lead Still Solid-----No Saddam Effect

[slinkerwink]

December 14-16: After Saddam was captured
(December 10-13: Before Saddam was captured)

Dean: 23 (23)
Clark: 10 (10)
Lieberman: 10 (6)
Gephardt: 6 (5)
Sharpton: 5 (6)
Kerry: 4 (4)
Edwards: 2 (3)
Moseley-Braun: 1 (4)
Kucinich: 1 (3)
Don't Know/Other: 28 (24)

MOE=+/-4, but higher for subsamples like this one. See story for full details.

"Most voters believe, as Dean does, that the U.S. is no safer from terror in the wake of the arrest of Saddam Hussein.... 85 percent of Democratic primary voters think the threat to the U.S. will either rise or stay just as it is following Saddam's capture -- a feeling shared by 78 percent of all voters nationwide."

Dean also has the highest net favorables, at +21. Only Lieberman's support is firmer, according to the poll.

Standard disclaimers: (1) polls are imprecise measures; (2) they only capture a snapshot; (3) public opinion changes; (4) there is no national Democratic primary.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/17/opinion/polls/main589167.shtml

[dave29]

1. poop?

oh come on, you know they want to say it!!!

[slinkerwink]

4. here.....I'll provide something for them

:hurts: on them ;-)

[TexasPatriot]

2. come on slink...

you cant pick and choose like that... its dishonest

a couple hours ago Dean was at 31 percent

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=932035

[slinkerwink]

3. oh come on, it was a whole bunch of national polls

I'm just posting the newest one ;-)

[TexasPatriot]

7. you're too funny

i dont know why i like you so much ;)
you're incorrigible
:toast:

[slinkerwink]

8. awww........thanks

;-)

[TexasPatriot]

14. ok, let's talk about the gallup poll

(and no screaming)

---

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/12/17/elec04.prez.poll/index.html

Bush leads 60 percent to 37 percent (+/-4)
In polling directly before Saddam's capture, Bush was ahead of the former Vermont governor 52 percent to 44 percent.

Gen. Wesley Clark running better against the president than Dean but still behind 56 percent to 40 percent.

In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll taken the week before Gore's endorsement, Dean's support stood at 25 percent among registered Democratic voters. It rose to 33 percent after Gore gave his seal of approval December 10 to the candidate. But in the polling after Saddam's capture, support for Dean had retreated to 27 percent

Lieberman and Clark ranked second behind Dean, tied at 12. The story says Clark's support is eroding, but its up from 10 to 12 since the news.

---

ok. Diving into the dangerous territory of the tealeaf reading business for a minute - this shows a 'tendency' for Clark to be more appealing against Bush on a national level. If we believe this is going to be a close race, 7 points is a lot. It also shows Dean taking a hit over the Saddam capture news - both in a matchup against the UnPresident and other dems.

I think this is why you're hearing the tenor of the attacks ratcheting up...

One thing about Clark can be read from the polls - there doesnt seem to be a noticable 'Madonna Effect' for Clark. Personally, I'm somewhat glad for that. It gives me greater faith in the American electorate. ;)

(not that I have anything against Madonna)

[_Jumper_]

15. Clark is running 6 points better against Bush than Dean

Wow, and this is despite the fact that Dean has received infinately more media coverage than Clark. What conclusion can we draw from this?

[dfong63]

31. media coverage can be negative as well as positive

Wow, and this is despite the fact that Dean has received infinately more media coverage than Clark.

media coverage can hurt as well as help a candidate. and Clark has nothing to complain about when it comes to the raw amount of media coverage he gets. it's way more than some of the real dem candidates. Clark gets more coverage than Sharpton or Kucinich, despite being only equally qualified with Sharpton, and less qualified than Kucinich.

What conclusion can we draw from this?

that you're a Clark supporter.

[Cha]

5. Dean is still "Solid" with everyone I know

that wants him to be Prez. But then they aren't the wishywashy people who believe hype from whoremedia types.

[slinkerwink]

6. heh

;-)

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

[CMT]

9. once again the pundits and his opposition

are wrong. On Sunday all day long on tv we heard how this might de-rail the Dean campaign. They just don't get it.

[slinkerwink]

10. nope, they sure don't

[_Jumper_]

12. That helped Dean

He was treated as the de facto opposition leader 24/7 on Sunday and Monday.

[Demobrat]

13. The only thing that's going to de-rail the Dean campaign

is if he gets caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl.

[Lugnut]

29. I'd call that,

Quite simply, wishful thinking.

[_Jumper_]

11. There was a strong Saddam effect

Lieberman's support increased by 67% while truly anti-war candidates Dennis Kucinich and Carol Mosley-Braun saw their support decline 67% and 75% respectively.

Why has the anti-war-lite Dean been immune to this? Perhaps it is because of a boot he received as a result of increased media coverage of him as he was effectively touted as the "opposition leader." This may have temporarily cancel out the damage caused by the capture of Saddam Hussein, who Dean himself stated was a threat prior to Joe Trippi's decision to jump onto the anti-war bandwagon.

[ozone_man]

16. You can fool (almost) all of the people some of the time.

Sooner or later people get weary of war and question the justification for it. This little bump (Saddam effect) for Bush will turn into a deep gully soon. Looks like there are some skeletons in Bush's 911 closet about to come out, and we're not even talking about the economy yet. People vote with their pocket books, remember.

[DFLforever]

17. Well it looks like Dean won the 'Saddam round " from his competitors

and it may be related to that quality called leadership, the ability to know where the people are without benefit of instant polling.

[arewethereyet]

18. at great cost v Bush

which is more important ?

want to win the battle or the war ?

[slinkerwink]

20. the general election is a YEAR away......

things can still change....geez.

[DFLforever]

21. Did you read the post?

the opinion re American security and the capture of Saddam is "a feeling shared by 78 percent of all voters" - looks like it cuts well into 'Bush'- held territory in the war, not just Democratic voters.

[arewethereyet]

28. funny, all the other polls would indicate it was a good thing

but feel free to cherry pick your poll questions to make yourselves feel better.

It only helps my boy Edwards.

[Scott Lee]

22. You're right, we're sorry that Dean keeps winning.

Please accept our humble apologies, and we'll do our utmost in the future to see that he is a weaker opponent to George Bush.

[slinkerwink]

24. lol....I love your sarcasm

[slinkerwink]

19. yep

[_Jumper_]

23. Leadership?

“The capture of Saddam has not made America safer.”


“I never said Saddam was a danger to the United States. Ever. Saddam was a regional danger. I believed that he had weapons of mass destruction. I believe we could have controlled him. I believed that the proper way to remove him should he need to be removed was through the United Nations and I never wavered from that.” Fox News Channel, 12/10/2003

“There's no question that Saddam Hussein is a threat to the United States and to our allies.” CBS Face the Nation, 9/29/2002


“Anyone who believes in the importance of limiting the spread of weapons of mass killing, the value of democracy, and the centrality of human rights must agree that Saddam Hussein is a menace. The world would be a better place if he were in a different place other than the seat of power in Baghdad or any other country.” Dean speech, “Defending American Values – Protecting America’s Interests,” 2/17/03

[SahaleArm]

27. The evolution continues n/t

[Zomby Woof]

25. Undecided still wins!

:bounce:

[MisterP]

26. Lieberman got a boost, it appears;

it should be quite short-lived--already his state leads are collapsing.

[arewethereyet]

30. for all his ridicule around here he isn't going away so fast

I honestly don't know why at this point but he bears watching

[neuvocat]

32. Not too surprising.

The Bush admin has been using fear as a selling point the Iraq war that there's just no way that Hussein's arrest will make people feel any better about any of it.

[RogueTrooper]

33. The boys who cried wolf once too often

Good news for Dean.

:evilgrin: