NEWS ANALYSIS
GOP Can't Afford to Write Off California
Despite Bush losses, 'a different kind of Republican' could carry the state, analysts say.
By Mark Z. Barabak
Times Staff Writer
August 31, 2005
In 2000, Texas Gov. George W. Bush spent more than $20 million in California as part of a vigorous effort to carry the state in his first presidential bid. He lost to Vice President Al Gore by 1.3 million votes.
In 2004, seeking reelection, President Bush virtually ceded the state to Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry, spending minimal time and resources here. He lost California by 1.2 million votes.
Two approaches — fight and flight — produced the same result and showed just how inhospitable California has been to this president. His appearances in the state over the last two days have been limited to hand-picked audiences in the safe GOP harbors of Coronado in San Diego County and Rancho Cucamonga in San Bernardino County. Underscoring Bush's poor image, Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was notably absent from the president's side, departing from the usual political protocol.
Still, party strategists and outside analysts.. suggest, the state is more competitive than Bush's travails indicate. The right Republican — "a different kind of Republican," as several observers phrased it — could put California back in play as early as 2008, with consequences well beyond the state's lengthy borders.
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But clearly the perception exists among many voters that the state is low on Bush's list of priorities. That poses a double challenge for Republicans looking ahead to 2008 — reassuring Californians that the party cares about them and finding a candidate who can win over social conservatives while staying in sync with the state's live-and-let-live philosophy.
Party strategists offer up names of several Republicans who might be strong California prospects: former New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and, especially, Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Each has broken at some point with Republican orthodoxy on abortion, gay rights, campaign finance or other issues, suggesting a maverick streak that could appeal to libertarian California voters. But those very qualities also make it less likely that any of the three could survive party primaries in Iowa or South Carolina, for instance, where balloting is dominated by religious conservatives.
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http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-calpol31aug31,1,1991370.story?coll=la-headlines-californiaTimes staff writer Peter Wallsten in Coronado contributed to this report.