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There is actually an Ireland based electronic exchange for politics, current events, financial indicators, weather and other unique contracts just opened a market on the new Iraqi constitution. This site can be seen at www.intrade.com .
From a recent press release from the Intrade.com folk, they note that their exchange traders are actively betting the Iraqi Constitution will pass when it comes to a vote on October 15th. Apparently, Intrade.com began trading contracts tied to the ratification of the Iraq Constitution with a rush of volume, mostly on the upside. Traders on Intrade.com correctly predicted the outcome of the US general election in 2004, Tony Blair's re-election and Cardinal Ratszinger's appointment to the papacy are also betting on ratification.
From their site, the probability of a YES Vote is now about 70% - up over 30% from last week, with all the rhetoric on rejecting this referendum and the history of correctly predicting political election results, it makes sense to take no other sides of this trade. Another related Intrade.com trading contract involves betting that Osama bin Laden will be captured by the end of this year. This contract has fallen from $30 in May to only about $13-14 now.
Interesting stuff… kinda makes a lot of sense really…
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