First Exit Poll Kerry 36 Dean 31 Clark 12 Edwards 12

[ringmastery]

This was linked at Drudge.

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_01_25_corner-archive.asp#023784

[JohnKleeb]

1. alright good job guys

very nervous here yet in a good mood.

[pmbryant]

2. Here's the exit polls from a less right-wing source ;-)

From daily KOS:

Update 2: Here are the 1 p.m. exit poll numbers I've been able to get my hands on (from a media source. Caveat emptor):

LA Times:
Dean 34
Kerry 33

ABC News:

Kerry 37
Dean 31

In both these polls, both Clark and Edwards are hovering around 12 percent.
The National Review's The Corner has Kerry 36, Dean 31, Edwards 12 and Clark 12. Probably the ABC News tracking poll with Kerry's number rounded down.

And btw, I don't have any compulsion in posting mid-day tracking polls. They are the half-time score in the Super Bowl. Democracy will march onward. Heck -- if you're a Kerry voter, it means get your ass to the poll, since your guy doesn't have it in the bag. If you're a Dean voter -- get your ass to the poll since your guy has a serious shot. And if you're a Clark or Edwards voter, you have every motivation to get your guy that important third place finish.

[liberalhistorian]

4. ALL RIGHT!

NO MENTION of Lieberman, THANK GOD! PLEASE let him see the light after this and drop out and GO THE HELL AWAY!

[TexasSissy]

3. Drudge is conservative & contains false info sometimes.

Why do people keep referring to it? By "people" I mean Dems, of course.

[Freddie Stubbs]

13. Drudge is simply linking to another news source

That source is National Review, which is certainly a conservative publication. But NR posted early exit polls back in 2000, and they were pretty accurate.

[jsw_81]

16. But they were way off in 2002

Remember the exit polls that had Bowles beating Dole in North Carolina? Remember the McBride/Reno debacle in Florida?

[Freddie Stubbs]

20. No I do not remember that

Do you have a link for that?

[jsw_81]

26. Here you go:

For instance, early exit-polling data indicated that Erskine Bowles was leading Elizabeth Dole in the North Carolina senatorial race. As the day progressed and more exit-poll data was added, that margin grew.

However, when the actual votes were tallied, Dole won the election by almost 200,000 votes, a convincing victory.

http://www.baselinemag.com/article2/0,3959,826676,00.asp

[Freddie Stubbs]

29. They were pretty accurate

New Hampshire (98% reporting) Updated: 8:10 a.m.

Candidate Vote % NH
Kerry
39%
Dean
26%
Clark
12%
Edwards
12%
Lieberman
9%
Kucinich
2%
Sharpton
0%

[MercutioATC]

5. For a guy who's "finished", Dean's doing great!

I'll admit that I didn't know if there was enough time to turn things around between Iowa and N.H., but so far, so good.

:toast:

[Snivi Yllom]

15. I think this will rally Dean people to see he CAN win

it will be close

[MercutioATC]

18. I'd love a win! I'll be very happy with a close second.

It's all about moving in the right direction...

[arcos]

6. a close second! great news for Dean! n/t

[opihimoimoi]

14. The Pubs are trying their best to muddy the Dem Candidancy with

spin and distortion.

Dean has what the others lack, passion and drive combined with tenacity/smarts. He is feared by the Pub Masters as the one guy who can fire up the younger crowd to fever pitch....something the Bush crowd knows W cannot do.

Dean has appeal, well, they all do, but Dean can claim more than others, the up to now, non voters. This is what makes the Bushies very nervous.

Come, we go pick mountain apples.

[David Dunham]

7. Later Voters Will Favor JK and JE, as in Iowa

People voting later in the day, especially blue collar workers, may favor Kerry and Edwards more, just as in Iowa. New Hampshire's later in the day voters are always slightly more conservative for some reason.

[Freddie Stubbs]

8. Later voters in Iowa?

Iowa is a Caucus. They all vote in the evening.

[BootinUp]

10. Just as in Iowa?

Caucuses are different altogether. I am not saying you are wrong about blue collars though. Its going to be a long night by the looks of the early returns for sure.

[elixir]

11. The late voters are those who have returned from work.

Makes sense they would be more blue collar.

[WI_DEM]

22. what you post doesn't make sense

because all the caucuses in Iowa began at the same time 6:30pm and the official results were pretty steady all night.

[dolstein]

9. These numbers are fairly consistent with the ones I have seen

But I wouldn't put too much faith in them. After all, the early afternoon numbers looked good for Bradley in 2000, and he ended up losing.

[BootinUp]

12. What ones did you see

inquiring minds and all... ;)

[jsw_81]

17. Kerry and Edwards will surge ahead later on

The Dean supporters are mostly white-collar yuppies and college kids; they will be overwhelmed by blue-collar voters in a couple of hours.

[feckerman]

19. Generalizations killed the cat. n/t

[jsw_81]

28. No, angry Howard Dean killed the cat

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

[atre]

21. Why does Kerry have blue collar appeal?

Edwards and Clark, I can understand.

But Kerry is hardly a model populist; he's a millionaire who attended an Ivy League school.

[David Dunham]

24. Kerry's Catholic and Stands Up for Union Workers

[SahaleArm]

25. Yeah - The $700-Million dollar union guy n/t

[WI_DEM]

23. anybody getting any signs from the tv talking heads?

they sometimes give little clues like "it is looking like a long night" or "could be a good night for so and so..." anything like this?

[pmbryant]

27. I doubt they know much more than we know

Exit polls are leaked all the time now, so the talking heads no longer have much extra inside info on how it's going.

--Peter