Let me explain something about Bush's 46% approval rating on handling NO

[jpgray]

This is a bad number for him, especially considering the poll was posted on the 2nd, and probably was conducted mostly on the 1st. Natural disasters are traditionally a great PR opportunity for pols--they get to swoop down like heroes, get their hands a little dirty and provide some images of caring or a reasonable facsimile thereof for the evening news. People by and large really -want- to believe that their leaders are good men who care deeply about their welfare and can protect them from harm, so they -want- to believe that Bush is handling this well. This is why despite a very torpid and uninspiring response (and -delayed- as well of course) on 9/11, his approval rating shot up to 91%. He's netting barely half that now, and it has nowhere to go but down--this was a huge missed opportunity for the WH, and 46% is not a happy number when you're dealing with a huge disaster that has claimed thousands of lives. Especially when scarcely any of your incompetence was revealed to the public at the time of the poll-taking.

[SmokingJacket]

1. That's a very smart way of looking at it, actually.

You're right -- most big disasters make people want to rally behind their leader. So 46% is the amount of people digging into their most generous hearts, not wanting to look like "finger pointers"...

Lets see how this plays out in a week or three...

[Brundle_Fly]

13. I don't even think they are being generous.

I think they are misinformed, or perhaps underinformed. My mom thinks she is following it, but she really knows little to nothing other than it was hit by a hurricane. These people live in their bubble, but it's changing.

The constant drone of disgust and failure is ringing, and shrubs numbers will go with it.

[Mr Rabble]

2. Imagine once the bodycount comes out.

Even if they can suppress most of the death, they will still have to report more deaths than 9/11. I see that number as the tipping point.

[MH1]

3. Thank you, excellent analysis. n/t

[glitch]

4. Very good points - thank you. nt

[spooky3]

5. there was a very strong association with being Rethug vs. Dem

Rethugs thought he was doing a great job and Dems did not.

I don't know what has to happen to get through to these Rethugs--wait, yes I do. THEY weren't the victims of this disaster.

[jpgray]

11. Republicans have even more of a stake in wanting to believe in him

They put him in office.

[robbedvoter]

6. Yeah, let's analyze their manufactured reality and find comfort in it

''We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And
while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll
act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and
that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you,
all of you, will be left to just study what we do.''
Bush aide to Ron Suskind

[speedoo]

7. do you know which Bush aide that was?

Reminds me of Card's comment pre-Iraq about not starting a PR campaign in August.

[robbedvoter]

9. Suskind doesn't disclose. Entire article here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/magazine/17BUSH.html?ex=1125979200&en=9936839b02e1b4b7&ei=5070&oref=login&oref=login&pagewanted=all&position

[Cha]

8. Empires Fall, too. Sounds like

this bushwa aide never took his history to heart.

[renaissanceguy]

10. Brilliant points. Thanks for putting it into

perspective...this actually makes me have some hope.

Kicked and nominated.

[tomg]

12. While I absolutely agree with your

analysis, and I think the 46% is disasterous, what concerns me are other numbers from the same poll referred to in a different post

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1752644&mesg_id=1752644

which says 55% of those polled don't blame Bush. There seems to be a serious disconnect at work here. In a way the various "causes" for the terrible loss of life, the loss of the city, and the horrendous response time are almost analogous to the way various "reasons" we are in Iraq have been offered to the public. It was a natural disaster of unimaginable magnitude; it was the "looters;" it was local government being overwhelmed; it was bureaucratic "red tape;" it was Brown and FEMA and Chertoff. By the time it wends its way upward, 55% of those polled have decided it isn't the little prince's fault. He is doing an atrocious job ( okay, he is not doing his job at all), but somehow or other, it is not his fault. And competence and culpability are, finally two different things ( to some, certainly not to me).

That is why I am worried, not so much about his approval rating going down (it will and your analysis in that regard is dead on ), but by his personal culpability rating being over 50%. On 60 Minutes tonight, in the interview with Mayor Nagin, the Mayor mentioned how the Clown-in-Chief told him that the Federal Government "could have done better." So he has started damage control already. Last Fall in the debates, when he was asked if could recall any mistakes he had made ( or a time when he was wrong), the only thing he came up with was how he had made some appointments and those people had "let him down" ( or some other equally innane phrase). I am very concerned that unless the Dems really start kicking and make him personally accountable ( and not - Brown or Chertoff have to go because they "let George done" accountable - but criminally negligent homicide accountable), he will get off again and, what is more, will present himself as the one who had to step in to right things. Look at his rhetoric (things are "unacceptable").
In your post, you said, and rightly, that "People by and large really -want- to believe that their leaders are good men who care deeply about their welfare and can protect them from harm, so they -want- to believe that Bush is handling this well." In lieu of that belief - that he is handling it well - they will fall back on the belief that it is not his fault, that fault lies elsewhere.

on edit: God, do I hope I am wrong and they nail that son of a bitch

[jpgray]

15. That's a good point

Lies work best if they are lies people want to believe. Even if his administration takes a big hit, in a Reaganesque way Bush will probably elude culpability.

[TayTay]

16. I tend to doubt this

He appointed that idiot Brown to FEMA. He staged fake PR events so that he would look good.

This stuff is going to come out. The press has actually been pretty good about questioning what went wrong. And this was an event that played out on live TV all across America.

I can't see Bush going anywhere but down from here. This is just too awful and the screwup too visible

[jpgray]

18. "This stuff is going to come out"--I've heard that too many times

With the support of the press, he can easily escape this one. Whether they'll finally abandon him or not--who knows?

[TayTay]

19. Yeah, but they need others to lie for them on this

And those people are not lying. The Medicare Drug Law passed because the Bushies were able to intimidate federal employees into staying quiet. The Iraq War screwup relied on the press keeping their mouths shut so that the gross incompetence stayed managed.

There are military people screaming over this. The meteorologists are screaming that FEMA and Bush were warned about the levee problem.

It's not Bush. He needs an army of people to shut up on this in order for the Big Lie to take. Well, somebody forgot to forward the script to a lot of people who are screaming about what went wrong.

It's a different day and a different group of people.

[bribri16]

14. Whew!! for a moment I thought the entire country went crazy! n/t

[Pepperbelly]

17. Very good interpretation for a snot-nosed kid ...

Signed ...

Old Coot

:D

[jpgray]

20. Careful--I'm one of those zombified echo boomer drones

:D