Why no Exit Polls? Is Clark Moving Up or something?

[Jack_Dawson]

Faux must be hastily calling a mediawhores teleconference.

[AP]

1. or is Dean not doing well?

[Jack_Dawson]

5. LOL!!! Awesome Pix

[Mass_Liberal]

15. or is Dean doing well?

The media would sure be confused with that one.

[youngred]

2. It's not even 5

many people haven't even voted yet. Exit polls won't be out for another few hours

no grand conspiracy...chill :smoke:

[returnable]

7. Ah, but MSPNAC said they'd release exit polls at 4:00...

[maddezmom]

9. and I want to know the numbers!!

:)

[AP]

16. At Edwards blog: they were releasing YESTERDAY's polling numbers today

at least that's what I think it said.

They're not releasing today's exit polls until 8 pm, if I understand correctly.

[youngred]

20. Have we learned nothing from 2000

come on, this is silly

[_Jumper_]

11. MSNBC claimed that they would announce them at 4 Eastern

n/t

[laruemtt]

3. ha! won't that be delicious to watch

how will they ever spin that? guess there will be some late-breaking michael jackson story to draw our attention away - barf.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

4. They've gotta "fix" the voting machines first

n/t

[arewethereyet]

6. they're not supposed to be doing them if they are

I see these numbers and it's disappointing and a shameful treatmennt to the people of New Hampshire.

[goobergunch]

8. I doubt that somehow.

:)

[cally]

10. I just saw a CNN crawler

that said that Edwards, Clark, and Lierberman are grouped together for third. All four on crossfire are sounding like Clark is not doing well. :cry:

[Jack_Dawson]

F* That!

Lieberman shouldn't be within 10 points of Clark. What the hell is wrong with people?

[Lefta Dissenter]

Cally, don't be suckered by those pigs

It's just disgusting how they are doing their best to influence the vote. STAY THE HELL OUT OF OUR ELECTIONS!!! Let's just wait to see what the actual returns say.

edited to say Tucker and Novak can't stop obsessing over Clark! It's just unbelievable! They are PETRIFIED of him!

[Democrats unite]

14. It was also clear on crossfire that Cerville & Begalla

Are not looking forward with Kerry's lead.

[blm]

19. Are you watching the same show? Carville LOVES Kerry.

He can't wait for Kerry to get on stage with Bush. He just repeated that very statement again just a few minutes ago.

[Democrats unite]

24. Twice in the beginning of the show

Carville said on two different occasions It is hard to believe Kerry might be the nominee. That doesn't sound favorable to me.

[pmbryant]

31. Didn't see it myself, but maybe...

Maybe Carville is referring to the fact that just about 3 weeks ago or so, it looked like Kerry's campaign was about dead.

:shrug:

--Peter

[pmbryant]

21. Well, exit polls aren't going to be much help in the race for 3rd

I highly doubt they are accurate enough to tell the difference between 13% and 8% very well.

:shrug:

Whatever happens today, keep in mind that there is a long way to go yet!

:hug:

Peter

EDIT: On re-reading this, it's probably not very reassuring. I should have said, 'They probably can't tell the difference between 16% and 10% very well.' :shrug:

[lastknowngood]

22. Yea their pushing the aint Kerry

great story as directed by aol time warner.

[LTR]

25. That's Novak talking

He's been naysaying Clark alot lately, especially after the "deserter" thing.

Why doesn't Novak just keel over dead already?

[Jack_Dawson]

26. That would be awesome

[ringmastery]

12. Ted has been posting exit polls at the kerry blog

I have no clue if Ted is pulling these numbers out of his ass or is a real source but they are interesting.

3:00 P.M. Exit Poll Numbers

Kerry 36%
Dean 23%
Edwards 21%
Clark10%
Lieberman 6%
Kucinich 4%

Dean is showing some strength in the rural areas of New Hampshire. My source says that Edwards is receiving heavy support in Manchester and Keene (especially among suburban women).

[West Coast Democrat]

18. I posted this earlier from a Daily Kos poster

that person claims these are the MSNBC numbers:

From a former Kennedy staffer (none / 0)

From a former Kennedy press secretary:
MSNBC:
Kerry 37
Dean 29
Edwards 15
Clark 12

The Kerry people believe these numbers will get closer, and that Kerry will win by 5. They also believe Edwards will go up a couple as well.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/27/185137/760

[ringmastery]

27. Ted just posted his 5pm numbers

The numbers are shifting towards Kerry as the day wears along. Kerry is running very strong among the working classes.

Latest Numbers: 5:00 Eastern Time

Kerry 37%
Edwards 21%
Dean 20%
Clark 13%
Lieberman 6%
Kucinich 3%

Edwards is running very strongly among women voters. Kerry is dominating Southern New Hampshire.

[Jack_Dawson]

28. Who is Ted?

[ringmastery]

32. he's a guy posting exit poll results

on the kerry blog. No clue if he's a BS artist or legit.

[returnable]

34. My pal Ned

Just posted completely different results on his blog.

One of these guys is lying :hi:

[BootinUp]

36. Ed says

you can't belive those two guys! :)

[returnable]

38. Fred says Ed...

...is full of it. And he just posted it on a blog, so I believe him! :hi:

[crissy71]

39. This just in: Ted has fled..

Ouch

[PA-DEM]

23. Something not adding up

This from Rich Lowery
NADA
No new scuttlebutt. Although here's little item from politicsNH.com suggesting a close race:

"On primary day we hear:

* 4:30pm*

- We hear there might be a good reason why John Kerry did a last minute trip to wave at cars in Manchester at the corner of Granite and Canal Streets."
Posted at 04:45 PM

[eyeswideopened]

13. no very scientific but try this

http://www.dailykos.com

[John_H]

17. An educated guess: they're getting heat from one or more of the campaigns

No guests or interviews from us if you put these out, etc.

[SheilaT]

29. When exit polls are conducted

by reputable polling organizations, the kind that used to happen through the 2000 campaign, those numbers are not released until the polls actually close. Good exit polling is very good, and will be as accurate as the eventual vote count. Which is what happened in 2000 which is why the people who stole the election were running around saying the exit polls were wrong, which they were not.

Unfortunately, the exit pollsters were intimidated into not doing exit polling in 2002, so certain very suspicious results (such as Max Cleland's loss) have never been properly examined.

I can't recall if in previous election cycles exit polling was done after caucuses.

New Hampshire only has 300 and some precincts, so it won't take very long to count all the ballots, and I think there's only the presidential primary, not lots of other offices and ballot initiatives, unlike in the general election.

[Jack_Dawson]

30. Intimidated from doing Exit Polling in '02?

Do you have a link? That's interesting if true.

[SheilaT]

41. A google search turns

up a few links.

http://www.baselinemag.com/article2/0,3959,826676,00.asp

http://www.savannahnow.com/democracy2000/DEMexitpolls.html

http://www.ecotalk.org/VNSclosingdoors.htm

http://www.antitrustinstitute.org/recent2/215.cfm

Possibly if I searched longer I could find a comprehensive, footnoted article about the history of exit polling, its ramifications, and what happened since 2000.

But the articles show my memory of 2000 and 2002 is accurate.

If you have the patience to look more, I entered "exit polling" + VNS + 2000 and got over 900 results.

To me the exit polling issue is a very important one, and without good exit polls this November I'm not sure we can trust any result that's not the Democrat winning. No matter who he is. The whole issue of electability strikes me as meaningless, given the great disgust with George W Bush. We all have our favorite candidates and we tend to see that guy as the most (or only) electable one. But I believe sincerely that any one of the top four or five would easily win in a fair election, so long as he doesn't suddenly become GOP Lite.

[frustrated_lefty]

33. Ed Schultz just said

Kerry 37, Dean 30. Didn't say where the numbers were coming from, but that's what he claimed as of 4:07 (central time zone).

[Snivi Yllom]

35. Howard Dean was just on Sean Hannity's radio show

At the end Sean reported "Howard you are going to like this, i was just handed this, the race is a dead heat"

[economic justice]

37. The Media Smears on DU

In various posts here at DU you hear:

The media doesn't want Clark because they think he can win.

The media doesn't want Kerry because they think he is truly electable.

The media doesn't want Dean because he's an outsider and tells it like it is.

And then, of course, everywhere else but DU it's: The media is "liberal" and out to defeat Bush.

The conclusion: The media, for the most part, has covered a fluid primary situation and has given all of the candidates a hard time at one point or another. The media is not one big monolith with a single "voice"......

[West Coast Democrat]

40. New from NRO

LATEST #'S
One source says the update is 36 Kerry, 30 Dean, 12 for Edwards and Clark. I'm told Edwards folks have been saying that their internal #'s show them doing better than this. For what it's worth. We should know more soon...
Posted at 05:28 PM

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_01_25_corner-archive.asp