Hidden gem in recent polling data:

[SnowGoose]

Everyone seems to be talking about how dismal Bush's numbers are. This is good news, but hardly surprising. Here's what I noticed:

From: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=mr050909-1tb.pdf&id=2770

"* Half the respondents were asked party identification in this location, the other half were asked at the end of the survey with the
other demographic questions. Results for the respondents who were asked the question early were 41% Republican, 45%
Democrat. For the respondents asked later in the survey, the results were 42% Republican, 51% Democrat.'

So before reviewing recent events by answering the pollsters questions, 41% of people identified themselves as Republican - with an insignificant 1% more saying "yea, I'm Republican all right" if they were asked AFTER that current events refresher.

On the other hand 45% said they were Democratic before going through the poll, but a full 6% more said they favored the Democrats if they were asked after reviewing the current state-of-the-world by going through the polling questions.

To my mind, that means that when people actually slow down and consider what's going on in the world and the country, they seem to be more inclined to identify with the Democratic party. I haven't done any stats - so maybe it doesn't rise to *statistical* significance, but it sure looks like a trend.

A very positive trend.

[Mikimouse]

1. Problematic from a methodological standpoint...

Asking affiliation before the survey could bias the results. IOW, people who identified as Republicans would then feel compelled to follow through with supporting the current adminstration, while those who were not asked would feel more at ease to vote their conscience. When one asks questions such as party affiliation (especially prior to the survey), one can expect 'socially desirable' responses in the survey.

[ThoughtCriminal]

2. VERY interesting

indeed.
:patriot:

[ashling]

3. WP Story elucidates this point

It was posted in LBN (sorry, I don't have the link).

Bush's base is going, going ....

Question: What is whale shit?

Answer: The stuff covering Bush's poll numbers.

:rofl: