NOT looking for Flames (Question): Is it now Kerry vs. Dean (Edwards 3rd?)

[matcom]

looks like NH goes (YES I KNOW ITS EARLY) Kerry, Dean with Edwards down somewhere.

EARLY on, looks like Clark misjudged (NO FLAMES, JUST REPORTING)

so, predictions here. is this a Kerry/Dean/SOMEONE race??

i will NOT bash ANYONE and would appreciate it if this does NOT turn into a flame fest.

JUST reflecting on the early returns.

NO FAVORITES HERE!!!! PROMISE!!!

Discuss

[seventhson]

1. Kerry can't win in the south at all- DEAN can

Edwards is still in play. so is clark.

[Darranar]

5. I think Clark is going to do very well in the South...

I don't think Dean will, though.

[AP]

9. If Kerry can't win, Dean certainly isn't. At least Kerry has military

background.

I predict that Dean won't beat Kerry in a single southern state.

[Nicholas_J]

10. Right now

President
President - - 42 of 301 precincts reporting
Name Party Votes Pct Delegates
John Kerry Dem 11,810 37.9% 0
Howard Dean Dem 7,443 23.9% 0
John Edwards Dem 3,975 12.8% 0
Wesley Clark Dem 3,958 12.7% 0
Joe Lieberman Dem 3,113 10.0% 0
Dennis Kucinich Dem 562 1.8% 0
Dick Gephardt Dem 73 0.2% 0
Al Sharpton Dem 52 0.2%

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2004/primaries/by_state/NH_Page.html?SITE=YAHOOELN&SECTION=POLITICS#TOP

[ferg]

2. the next states are different

I'd think the next groups of states would favor Edwards and Clark more than Kerry and Dean.

So it's not yet time to call it a two man race yet.

[bearfartinthewoods]

15. there is the money issue

a lot of states equals mega ad buys. wish i could peek in their piggy banks.

[Darranar]

3. No, I think Kerry is too far ahead...

My only question in regard to the top four placements is whether Clark will beat Edwards or whether the current order will be mantained.

[HuckleB]

4. I think it's a bit early to make any such statement.

[Cheswick2.0]

6. at least for tonight

who knows about next week?

[Tatiana]

7. Clark is only trailing (at this early stage) by 17 votes.

Third place is a tossup. After 200 or so of the precincts are in, then maybe we can draw some conclusions.

Very impressive showing by Kerry. He's got the mojo.

Very impressive comeback by Dean. He's showed he's got some political strength and fortitude... more than folks like me gave him credit for.

This Edwards/Clark thing is a nailbiter.

[lovedems]

17. Considering how well Edwards did in Iowa, that says alot about

Clark.

He is still viable after this. I think he will do better in the south.

[Rowdyboy]

8. A lot depends on how strong a win it is for Kerry

In only one week we have six more state. Edwards and Clark can both afford to carry on and face more comfortable ground in the south and west. Then on February 7th, we have contests in Washington and Michigan which involve LARGE numbers of delegates.

JMHO-I don't think tonight will have any effect other than to further marginalize Kucinich, Lieberman and Sharpton, and to make Clark's job MUCH harder. Two third place finishes in a row leave Edwards looking good.

[Democrats unite]

11. Just reporting? Give me a break

it's neck & neck for third how can you say no favorites?

[Terwilliger]

12. I'd say Kerry/Dean/Edwards are the top 3

Clark has some work to do

[elcondor]

13. Edwards/Clark too close to call

Even if Edwards sqweaks out third place, it won't be by a large margin--you can't discount Clark yet. Edwards had a very strong showing in Iowa and yet is doing as well as in NH as someone who didn't campaign in Iowa at all. I agree that the February 3rd states will favor Edwards and Clark more.

[NashVegas]

14. You Can't Write off Edwards & Clark Yet

We haven't gone below the Mason-Dixon.

[lastknowngood]

16. Clark and Edwards are almost tied

don't count him out.

[blm]

18. Well, for those who care about pragmatism...here ya go....

Dean's unfavorables nationally were 34% before Iowa. During today's coverage they were quoted now at 43%.

NOONE can win a nomination, let alone a general election down the road, with unfavorables that high.

It's going to be between Kerry and Edwards and maybe Clark, at this point.

[Adjoran]

19. Money is the key.

Dean still has plenty, and Kerry is seeing the spigots turning back on for him, too.

Both Edwards and Clark are getting close to the bottom. Edwards could invest some of his own money, but he is counting on SC for a win. I think he will come to regret the reported nearly $2 million he spent in NH. I think he was gambling on a Dean collapse and wanted to preempt any big buzz for Clark from a second place in NH.

Both men will stay in for at least another week, even without a lot of TV money, since they have some following in the sun belt states.