we should all have the facts. Thank you.
Now, the reason for this is, in the November 2004
presidential elections, exit polls had Kerry win by
3%, official count had Bush win by 2.5%
Well, so the exit pollsters gave the explanation for
this as being that Bush voters were less likely to
respond to the exit pollsters. In order for that to
be true, however, you'd expect pollsters in precincts
which are mostly Bush voters to have a noticably lower
response rate to the pollsters and precincts with
primarily Kerry responders to have a noticably higher
response rate to the pollsters.
However, if you look at the exit poll response rates
with precincts separated out as described, precincts
with mostly Kerry voters have response rates that are
only slightly higher than the precincts with mostly
Bush voters. The difference between the two, using
the data available, is not enough to compensate for
the different between the actual election results and
exit polls.
This precinct breakdown is available in a detailed
statistical analysis by USCountVotes.org, written by 9
PhD's, one JD, and a couple others:
http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdfThe firm which did the exit polling, however, has not
released the full data necessary to do a more thorough
investigation of the data. They keep on saying that
republicans were just less likely to respond over and
over again. The main person who's been doing this is
Warren J. Mitofsky, founder of Mitofsky international.
Mitofsky international along with another company
performed the exit polls for a consortium of media
companies.
So, we want start an email campaign to Mitofsky to
release the full exit poll data for the November 2004
Federal Elections.
His email address is here: mitofsky@mindspring.com
More information about Mitofsky is here:
http://www.mitofskyinternational.com/company.htmThe full 2004 exit poll company is here:
http://www.exit-poll.net and their e-mail address is
here: information@exit-poll.net
I recommend e-mailing just mitofsky@mindspring.com
politely requesting him to "release the full 2004
Federal Election exit poll data".