If Clark finishes 3rd will he remain a top-tier candidate?

[_Jumper_]

If he finishes 3rd will he get a small bounce into 2/3 since the top 2 were in their backyard?

[Zynx]

1. If he does, he is a top tier candidate.

If Edwards finishes fourth, he's in trouble.

[RichV]

3. A shame how that works

given they'll likely be just a handful of votes apart.

[bicentennial_baby]

5. 700 and counting right now

[Kathleen04]

9. Edwards is still in good shape at 4th.

[_Jumper_]

11. I disagree

Edwards did better than expected if he finishes 4th right on the heels of 3rd place Clark. He will make his move next week.

[AP]

13. He's not going to be in trouble for being 1% point away from Clark

in a state in which Clark lost almost half his support in a week and Edwards more than doubled his, and in a state where, if you had taken dean and Kerry out, it's not clear that Clark would have won over Edwards.

[Doctor_J]

19. Not to worry

JRE will be Clark's VP ;-)

[arewethereyet]

24. hardly, its all he ever aspired for there

he scarcely campaigned and still got attention. Clark campaigned there heavily and expensively and was sliding downhill hard the last week or so.

[kovasb]

28. Edwards spent more total time in NH than clark

Clark was there a lot the last 3-4 weeks, but edwards has been running for well over a year, and has been to NH often. I think i did over 100 town halls in total. And yet he showed 0 movement until after iowa.

[arewethereyet]

34. which is pretty normal

but as you say, Clark has been there a lot since he threw his hat in and he saw his fortunes wilt after Iowa.

And Clark's overall numbers have been flat as well.

All that meant little till real people starting casting real votes.

Traction begins in Iowa.

[Turkw]

44. That's right, just keep repeating what the pundits say- fourth good third

bad. Clark may do very well, Edwards may do very well, Dean may do very well, a LOT more votes need to be cast.

[gulliver]

43. And then bounce back to take third.

The only ones who beat him were in their own back yard.

[dobak]

2. 3rd will be just fine

Dean was expected to beat him

Kerry has the momentum coming in

----

If Clark finishes 3rd, he and Kerry are the winners tonight

[Myra]

4. We have four top tier candidates, Edwards included.

Third place is a tie, regardless of the numbers.

[funkyflathead]

6. No

It's a three man race- Edwards, Kerry and Dean.

Clark is still out of it.

[Joe the Revelator]

15. Care to explain that?

Third was right where clark was aiming for in this primary

[funkyflathead]

33. Then Clark is an idiot

He should have been aiming for 1st place.

[Democrats unite]

17. The you need to tell the voters that.

They are not listening to you.

[PVnRT]

7. Yes

This is, after all, his first primary. Kerry is widing masssive momentum, and Dean has been in the top spot for a while, so third isn't really that bad in New Hampshire for Clark.

[kcr]

8. He and Edwards are top tier candidates until Feb 3rd

At that point, those two (and Dean) have to have some actual victories in their pockets.

[not systems]

10. Yep... Kerry, Dean, Edwards and Clark. n/t

[Democrats unite]

20. You almost have the candidates in the right order.

eom

[not systems]

27. Dean, Clark and Kerry is my personal ordering.

Go Dean!

Go Clark!

[SadEagle]

12. Who knows?

It's all a perceptions thing; like everything about "momentum". Personally, I don't see much difference between 3rd and 4th, when it's that close; but I also base my vote on what I think of the candidates, and not on what people in other states vote like, so who am I to understand?

[Democrats unite]

14. I believe no matter who finishes 3rd & 4th...

They will both still be top tier. SC will make the difference for them.

[bigwillq]

16. I think it's still a four man race

We haven't even gotten to the South where I think Clark and Edwards will do well

[roguewolf5]

23. Even if Edwards got 3rd straight out

He's got claim to beating Joe who like CLark has been in NH exclusivily. But a tie with Clark just solidifies a Clark/Dean/Edwards/Kerry race for the next month.

and thats what we got.

[bigwillq]

29. Even if Edwards is third

Clark's day has still not arrived yet and he'll be in the mix and I'm a Dean supporter but I think Clark has a lot of internal support among the "Clinton" Democracts. Yes, Clark has yet to catch fire with the general public but I think he still can.

[Darranar]

Yes, Clark will do very well in the South.

[carpetbagger]

18. It gets him a 1st class ticket to Feb. 3d.

That day, Kerry could run the board and become the nominee-in-waiting, Clark could tank, or Clark could (1) win a state or two, and (2) land in the top two in at least four states. If he does the latter, he faces a Clark-Edwards elimination match in VA and TN. If he does well there, and Kerry can't lock it up, it's on to March Madness.

[GiovanniC]

21. Considering He Was Declared DOA by Fox, CNN, MSNBC, et al

I'd say it would be darn near Lazarus-like if he came in third. I wonder how they'll spin it.

[DoYouEverWonder]

26. Exactly

love the Lazarus reference.

The media either ignored Clark or tried convince people that he was a loser. Nice of the media to make up our minds for us? Glad to see its not working.

[arewethereyet]

22. not like that

if it were a contending third it would be one thing but it was a backsliding third and narrowly over my guy who hardly campaigned there.

Anything short of 20% was a bad night for the General.

[roguewolf5]

25. that could be a way for the networks to spin it

good call =\

[arewethereyet]

35. its the basic facts, no spin

look at Clark's numbers in this 3 day tracking poll. Where did his votes go ?.

11-Jan 19
12-Jan 20
13-Jan 22
14-Jan 24
15-Jan 23
16-Jan 22
17-Jan 20
18-Jan 20
19-Jan 19
20-Jan 18
21-Jan 19
22-Jan 20
23-Jan 19
24-Jan 17
25-Jan 15
26-Jan 13

(RPG poll compilation the others show a similar trend)

[JasonBerry]

30. NO - Bad News for Clark

Edwards this close to Clark is not good for Wesley Clark. He passed Iowa by and focused on New Hampshire after his announcement. How could he be satisfied with 3rd or 4th? To barely be in double digits is a horrible showing for a candidate whose resume made it appear he could be a strong candidate. Add to this, his falling poll ratings nationally. I noticed a HUGE difference between Clark and Edwards tonight in their speeches. Edwards looked pumped - Clark appeared tired and ready to go home.

[Democrats unite]

32. How do you figure it is bad?

When did Clark enter the race? When did Edwards enter the race? Clark for never running in an election and only entering the race a couple of months ago. This is great For Wesley Clark!

[Mz Pip]

31. Clark is only 20,000

votes behind Dean and in the grand scheme of things, that is didly squat.

MzPip
:dem:

[dolstein]

36. There is only one top-tier candidate right now -- Kerry

Dean, Clark and Edwards are all second tier. The rest are also rans. And if Dean, Clark and Edwards fail to win any states next Tuesday, they'll be out too.

[Democrats unite]

37. I can only say if, thats what you believe go with it!

Dreams are great to have aren't they?

[shivaji]

38. Clark was CAMPED out in NH while the rest of leading

candidates were busy campaigning in Iowa. If Clark finishes a
distant third almost tied for 4th & 5th place, his stock has
taken a beating.

Let's tally the results so far:

Iowa: 0 delegates for Clark (Kerry, Edwards , Dean get them all)
NH: 0 delegates for Clark (Kerry & Dean take them all)
SC: Edwards a sure win, Dean or Kerry will get 2nd.

Clark is doing wonderful so far (sarcasm).

[Democrats unite]

39. Edwards is not a sure winner in SC.

eom

[Turkw]

41. So why can't career politician Edwards beat Clark? Clark has been in the

race for less than half a year, Edwards has been in over a year and a half? The only real looser is Lieberman, 5th.

[DjTj]

45. LOL

...career politician Edwards...

I suppose Edwards' one previous election makes him a career politican.

They are both relative newcomers that have improved dramatically in the past few months. They will both serve the Democratic party well.

[Turkw]

50. Hey, I just used the other side of the coin, and Edwards didn't do bad,

but the idea the Fourth is good and Third is bad is the worst kind of spin that the media is spewing tonight. Lieberman should have cleaned Clark and Edwards' clocks and given Kerry and Dean a little run for their money. That Clark and Edwards have double digits is good for them both.

This is Edwards second run for office at least so he is not an outsider, but hey, I didn't call Edwards a "lawyer" :evilgrin:

[ButterflyBlood]

53. not only is Edwards not a sure winner in SC

Dean and Kerry aren't getting #2. all the polls show Clark in at least the top 2.

If Edwards doesn't win SC he's out, and if Dean doesn't win any states he's out. The only state Dean has a shot at is Delaware. After next Tuesday unless Dean gets Delaware and/or Edwards get SC, it's down to Kerry vs. Clark.

[overground1]

40. No. - Because he skipped Iowa to focus on NH, he had to win today.

[overground1]

42. CORRECTION: Clark was NEVER a top tier candidate.

[Turkw]

48. Actually he needed to place in the top three, which is what he has done

He did better than THREE career politicians who have been campaigning for over a year longer than he has. Edwards did not do bad, but he didn't do better than Clark and Edwards spend more time total in NH than Clark did.

[neverforget]

49. Let's see: Dean and Kerry are from neighboring states. If they

didn't place 1 or 2 then they would be in trouble. Now we get to see how the candidates do in the South and West. Different demographics than in the Northeast.

[DjTj]

46. The test for Edwards and Clark is South Carolina.

...whether they are top tier or not will be decided on February 3.

Iowa and NH tell us that they are NOT also-rans, but whether they are top tier is yet to be determined.

[MrSlayer]

47. Hell Yeah.

Clark is everyone's worst nightmare. Once his message starts getting more widespread and he gets more focus as a serious contender more people will come into the fold. This guy is for real and he can win it all.

[eridani]

51. Why can't he be secretary of defense instead?

More suited to his background, what with never having held elected office.

[flaminbats]

52. nope...both Dean and Clark are now 2nd tier.

Lieberman and Edwards are now third tier. Edwards only hope to move back up to the second tier would be to win South Carolina, but even that may be too little too late!

As Kerry says..."Bring it on!"