Where can Dean win on 2/3?

[RichV]

These are coming up:
On to AZ, DE, MO, NM, ND, OK, SC!

I haven't looked at polling other than OK and SC, but does Dean have a chance in winning any of these? Maybe Deleware?

Just wonder what others think. No flames, please. Just a straight-forward question.

[Padraig18]

1. AZ, NM & ND. n/t

[RichV]

2. Why ND?

.

[roguewolf5]

3. cuz theres only like 5 people there

and its a 4 person race ;)

[Padraig18]

4. Organization.

He's had one there for months.

[RichV]

7. Maybe so

but that didn't do it in IA or NH. Why would it in a more conservative place like ND? Just trying to understand. Thanks.

[cheezus]

5. We're a bunch of socialists

[isbister]

6. ARG: AZ

Tonight's events will change things

January 25, 2004

John Kerry.....24%
Wesley Clark...21%
Howard Dean....10%
John Edwards...15%
Joe Lieberman...7%
Dennis Kucinic..0%
Al Sharpton.....0%

Undecided 23%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/az/

[John_H]

14. In other words, it's over.

[_Jumper_]

8. Maybe Delaware but that is a longshot

I don't think Dean will win a state on 2/3.

[jenk]

18. Delaware has Liebermentum

But I think Dean can take him there.

[BlueStateGirl]

9. Delaware

[AP]

10. I really don't think Dean has a chance of winning anywhere now.

Tonight was his chance. Why is any other state where he's spent less time than NH and IA vote for him when NH and IA didn't?

[RetroLounge]

20. and how did Edwards do tonight?

uh huh...

[genius]

11. According to the polls I've seen, Dean doesn't have a chance that day.

In South Carolina and Oklahoma, he's fourth.

[FreeperSlayer]

12. NOTA

(none of the above)

[retyred]

13. None

DE maybe but I doubt it.


retyred in fla
“Good-Night Paul, Wherever You Are”
So I read this book

[dolstein]

15. That's a trick question, right?

The answer is: they don't bury survivors.

[kentuck]

16. Since he reminds so many of Harry Truman?????

Missouri! And Delaware and ND should be Dean territory also... He should not surrender Missouri to Kerry - it's wide open.

[mike1963]

17. What I'm hearing here in eastern OK (not metro area) is not favorable to

Dean. His name recognition is in the low single digits (however he has not run any TV ads at all that I know of)...Clark seems to have a bit of edge so far. But I don't have much hope he or any of the others can beat Chimpy in this rightwing bucket of idiots. Most of the knuckledraggers around here couldn't find Iraq if they were standing in downtown Baghdad. It's a god, gays and gun thing, predictably.
:puke:

[poskonig]

19. Arizona and New Mexico.

In addition, Michigan is a gun friendly northern state and Dean may be able to exploit his record there on the 7th.

[Penible]

21. Everywhere ...

I do not mean to be frivolous. But campaigns are so strange.

And here is my thinking. Dean energized and invigorated the party for a year or so. That was NOT a bogus happenstance. Human beings react to what means the most to them.

There was a confluence of events (some random, some not) which put him in the harshest possible light. He has survived, which puts him in a far different light.

Without casting aspersion on the other candidates ... Howard Dean's appeal has suddenly become more profound and clear. He embodies a certain perception of integrity which sets him aside.

[RichV]

22. Pundits predicting Dean won't win any of the 2/3 states

But, of course, pundits are often wrong. Indicating best hope is AZ.

However, been watching CNN all night and that seems to be the consensus. Don't mean to get anybody upset, just reported what they're saying on TV. Haven't been watching any other channels tonight (other than Daily Show).

[hellhathnofury]

23. Dean can win in AZ, NM and MO.

[FeelinGarfunkelly]

25. No WAAAY can Dean win the Show Me State..

'Cuz he's got nothing to show here. The only way he can do well in MO is if he campaigns in KC to try to get an upset. St. Louis is an eastern-like city, a lot like Boston--lots of Catholics. Since Kerry is essentially controlling where the news goes, Missouri is going to become more important--possibly more important than SC.

Clark & Kerry are going to duke it out in St. Louis, with Edwards doing pretty well probably among the former Gephardt backers. Springfield is probably going to split between Clark & Edwards. Clark and Edwards can do well in rural areas--we like Generals and Southern accents--bonus points if they call the state "Mi-zer-uh" as Clark does. As a non-STL/KC metro person, the state kinda feels like Edwards country. He'll be in Springfield and St. Louis on Wednesday, and I'm going to drive 5 hours to see his stump speech.

PLUS, I heard on CNN that Joe Maxwell, Lt. Gov of Missouri, endorsed Edwards. Joe Maxwell gets people fired up about campaigning. If his wife wasn't ill he would run for re-election and after that we'd make him beat Kit Bond for the Senate. The point is that a lot of party faithful listen to what he has to say--like Edwards, he could probably sell a deep freeze to the Inuits.

[hellhathnofury]

26. I still think we can do it if we get on the ground before everyone else.

I want to play hardball, I'm sick of this beating around the Bush with Kerry on electability, bottom line is that Kerry is less electable than Dean. We just have to tell it like it is. Plus we own the issues.

I have family in Springfield.

[FeelinGarfunkelly]

27. Good luck at that...

Clark's got over 2000 volunteers throughout the state and was the first to open an office after Dick got out. Kerry and Edwards have somehow organized efforts in just the last couple of days. Dean.. he might have people in Columbia or KC..I think he was kinda popular when we wanted to get our anger and frustration out, but I think we're looking for someone else.

We're the best predictor for Presidential elections in November. When we (pain & agony) went for Bush in 2000, I didn't have to wait up all nite to hear about Florida: I knew Bush would take it. I still held out hope, of course, that maybe, just maybe, we were wrong like we were when we went for Adlai Stevenson. I think that Missouri is going to be a good gauge for who will win the nomination because we get a great mix of voters. Either way, I wish Dean the best of luck--he's got a lot against him. If he takes Missouri, I'll be surprised.

[RichV]

24. current polls for AZ, SC, OK

from http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Democratic Preference

AZ OK SC
Clark 21% 23% 14%
Dean 10% 8% 9%
Edwards 15% 18% 21%
Kerry 24% 17% 17%
Kucinich 0% 1% 1%
Lieberman 7% 10% 5%
Sharpton 0% 1% 15%
Undecided 23% 22% 18%

John Kerry and Wesley Clark lead in Arizona as Howard Dean drops to fourth place. Details from the survey conducted January 23-25 are at Arizona.

Wesley Clark leads in Oklahoma by default as Howard Dean drops to fifth place. Details from the survey conducted January 23-25 are at Oklahoma.

John Edwards leads in South Carolina with John Kerry a close second. Details of the survey conducted January 23-24 are available at South Carolina.

[Adjoran]

28. Kerry gets a bounce

from NH with only a week to go. I thought Dean had done some groundwork in MO, and was the only candidate other than Gephardt to have organized there. The pundits are saying it is Kerry's prime target next week as the biggest delegate prize.

Dean still has a chance to pull off Arizona and/or New Mexico, but his best bets follow Feb 3, with Michigan, Washington, and Wisconsin coming up. If he can weather the storm with those states until Super Tuesday, it could be down to a two-man race. Dean could fare far better than predicted in those southern states as the underdog against Kerry, who will have been under the microscope for a while by then.

[RummyTheDummy]

29. Nowhere.

He's finished. :)

[RummyTheDummy]

30. I loathe Dean, but I'll give you a straight answer.

I live in Oklahoma and Clark is runnning pretty strong here. Edwards is five points back and Kerry is third. Dean is running fourth right now, but the last poll I saw he was close to Kerry.