What happens to the Mideast & the terror threat when US doesn't need oil?

[Roland99]

One thing about oil scares me: Once we *do* develop and implement the insfrastructure for an alternative fuel source or, at the least, no longer need to rely upon the Mideast for their oil, what will happen to the Mideast?

It's not like they have much else to offer in terms of natural resources. There's not much in the way of manufacturing or service industries other than oil-related.

Will the Middle East replace the current "third-world" nations as the poorest of the poor?

Will they increase the danger of power struggles and bring to rise more dangerous militant, Islamic fundamentalists?


Granted, this is some decades (or more) down the road but it's a concern with which we should start seeking solutions to prevent a meltdown of the Mideast.

[trof]

1. We drop them like a hot rock, IMHO.

I'm not the first to say this (by a long shot), but if their main export was rutabagas they'd still be living in an 1800s world.

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. Agreed

[Roland99]

3. But, what happens to the Middle East after that?

That's what I was getting at.

If we think we have problems with their governments now, just wait until the only thing given them power in this world is gone.

[Name removed]

38. Deleted message

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[Orrex]

4. Might reduce the violence and terrorism

My understanding is that the huge majority of terrorism by extremist Muslims is motivated in large part by the intrusive military presence of western powers.

Once we are free of our national addiction to oil, we'll have no real need to maintain a military presence in the Middle East (well, aside from helping to ensure that the Book of Revelation comes to pass, but I digress), and we'll remove our bases and personnel at that time.

The argument will be made that, by removing our military, we're simply respecting the sovereignty of these former oil-producers, allowing them to control their own security blah blah blah, but the bottom line will be that no American politician will support the maintenance of troops in harm's way if there's no oil-benefit to be gained from it.

I expect that most of the resentment will vanish when our tanks and soldiers likewise vanish, or at least the resentment will lessen to the point that suicide bombers become very difficult to recruit.

[Roland99]

5. I've thought that, too. But I don't think a full military withdrawal

will end the terror thread. Madrassas will still exist, I fear. And they may worsen as the countries' move down in wealth as power-hungry egos make power grabs.

[Coastie for Truth]

9. Well, oil money can go two ways

Just compare Texas (UT Austin, A&M, Prairie View, Rice, Baylor, and the amenities of Houston, Dallas, Austin, etc.) with Louisiana (We lived in NO, and my wife taught in the 9th Ward -- nough said)

[BluGrl]

6. I wish that were true

But sadly, I've seen enough rantings that they used to rule the world and their goal is to restore the Caliph and return to worldwide domination to believe that our military leaving is the answer.

I don't think that (worldwide Islamic state) will ever happen but I don't think that losing their money (oil) will improve their attitudes toward us. They hate us, period. They hate us because we are dependent on their oil and they are dependent on our oil purchases. They hate that we are unbelievers and they hate that we have military in their countries.

We can take away the money and the military presence factor but it won't change the fact that we are unbelievers.

[Orrex]

12. Hey, welcome to DU, BluGrl!

It's a complex equation, that's for sure. You're probably right that certain radical elements will persist even after our withdrawal, but the overwhelming majority of people in the Middle East probably just want to be left alone in much the same way that the overwhelming majority of Americans want to be left alone. If our military isn't actively intruding upon their lives and sovereignty, I'm confident (though I'm not certain, obviously!) that a major source of friction would disappear.

[Coastie for Truth]

7. The PEOPLE of the ME are not Third World

Based on "due diligence" investigations I have either performed, reviewed, or signed off on:

1. There is an Information Technology infrastructure in the region - software developers kits, business software, several silicon fabs, "pick and place" computer component assembly, etc.

2. There is a Biotech infrastructure in the region (remember, the Islamic people kept medical science alive during Europe's "Dark Ages", and modern high tech medical imaging was a product; to a large extent of Arab-American physicians and scientists).

3. At the "agricultural engineer to agriculture engineer" and "agricultural scientist to agricultural scientist" level - a lot of the Israeli "arid region farming" and "desert farming" technology is seeing application across the Middle East.

Note: A heck of a lot of the "risk capital" or "development capital" or "venture capital" or "entrepreneurship" in the region is wasted on armaments, military equipment, race horses, bordellos, resorts, etc. Very little of the petroleum wealth goes back to the people (even worse then West Virginia Coal Wealth or Louisiana Oil and Gas and Timber Wealth).

[Roland99]

8. Then there should be a push to move toward those industries, as well.

This is where an administration that truly believed in diplomacy and long-term goals would come in handy.

Sadly, we haven't had one as far as I can remember.

[Coastie for Truth]

10. Just check the on line, daily San Jose Mercury Business Section

there's a lot of activity.

Also, look at Qatar and Bahrain.

[Roland99]

11. I was thinking more along the lines of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran.

They are, after all, the biggest oil producers.

[Coastie for Truth]

13. I have seen EFT software developed in Saudi Arabia

(Islamic culture dictates a different node-routing paradigm, sort of a "known trusted node" approach) - and there is a lot of Iranian medicine and software ---- just not in the US

[Roland99]

14. I think my point isn't being made maybe...

All of that oil revenue, if it dries up, is going to have a deleterious effect on these countries. A software industry isn't going to replace the trillions in oil income.

[Coastie for Truth]

15. Part of the problem is that the "trillions in oil income" is not recycled

locally - but is recycled as petrodollar and petroeuro extravagances that do not improve the life of the average resident. Those recycled dollars and euros go for race horses, and bordellos, and resorts (Sandals and Club Med are illegal in Saudi Arabia - but the royals are heavily invested in Club Med and Sandals type resorts), and casinos, and luxury investments outside of the region.

If the trillions in oil income had gone into something "productive" for the "people" (as distinguished from the Royals and the Wahabi mullahs) the entire ME would be the land of peace and milk and honey (Exodus III:8).

Just compare and contrast (1) Texas and (2) West Virginia and Louisiana. And that isn't second hand, I lived in Louisiana, and my dad was a UMW union lawyer in West Virginia, and I used to go to Texas regularly.

[Roland99]

17. I understand that to an extent but there is a fair amount going back...

into the country.

For example, publicly-funded colleges in Saudi Arabia to health houses in Iran, there is money going back into society.

If the oil industry infrastructure is no longer needed, you're talking about the loss of that trillions in income as well as the laying off of all of the oil industry workers and related industries (transportation for example).

Something will have to replace that or poverty will increase.

[Coastie for Truth]

19. First of all - oil production will not drop to Zero

I have read all of the "Peak Oil" scientific literature (Hubert, Deffeyes, Goodstein) as well as James Howard Kunstler.

I am NOT a Kunstler Malthusanist. I am an ENGINEER and an Amory Lovins optimist.

Go to the peak oil forum here on DU -- if we reduce the "personal transportation" slice of the pie by 40% (doable with present technology and infrastructure), and switch some of our demand for plastic feedstocks to other sources (like coal and biomass - that's historically the way the plastics industry started), and used some creative architecture and engineering on our "heating" and "electric generation" slices of the pie -- the ME oil states could live nicely on satisfying the remaining demand (even China and India) for several generations.

I have posted on this in the "peak oil" forum and the "environment and energy" forum.

[Roland99]

21. I'll take a peak (no pun intended)

;)


But, what I'm thinking of is if an alternative form of energy (hydrogen fuel-cells, for example) and more practical solar energy are developed, that would spread beyond just the U.S. and on to India and China, too.


I know oil production won't drop to zero, at least not for a very long time, but the level of production would drop precipitously if conservation, alternative fuels, etc. came into play at once.

[Coastie for Truth]

24. I spent nearly a life time in alternative, renewable, green energy

It isn't going to happen until we stand on the precipice of the Kunstler "Depression" stage.

[Roland99]

26. In your opinion then, will that precipice instigate a global depression

and panic?

[Coastie for Truth]

32. I' not going to take that bet

I think people (including businesses, governments) who follow Lovins and the most optimistic threads in Kunstler (in choosing housing, transportation, career, investments. infrastructure ) will come through better over a 20-30 year planning horizon then those who don't.

[bluedawg12]

27. True, people in Louisiana and Miss. are third world.

Did you guys see the thread about Katrina Vandenhuevla's article: 1/3 of Americans live at or below poverty?

[maxsolomon]

16. no oil, no argument

other than israel.

that aside, once the money is gone, or squandered by the arab elite, i frankly don't care. i care as much as i care about uruguay.

wait, scratch that. i care MORE about uruguay than i do about the ME. nothing would please me more than to tell the sauds, the iraqis, the palestinians, & the israelis that they can go fuck themselves. return to medievalism. they'll be as much of a threat as upper volta or mongolia.

[Roland99]

18. Uhhh...

yeah....mmmkay.

[maxsolomon]

20. i'm a bit of an isolationist, what can i say?

america has demonstrated repeatedly that if there's no oil or money, we don't give 2 shits. haiti is example #1.

i think that once we stop funding militant islam with our oil dollars, they will have neither cause nor means to continue their war on us. after all, OBL sees it as a defensive war against our oppression & murder of arabs. converting us to islam is not high on their agenda. we're an ocean away. getting us to fuck off, leave their lands, & let them oppress their women as they used to is their agenda.

we should accomodate.

[Roland99]

23. What about Bali, Madrid, Indonesia, London, Balkans, Sudan, etc.?

The distorted view of Islam held by the militant Islamists isn't going to go away if we pull our military out or stop buying oil from OPEC. There's a deeper running hatred of the West that goes beyond that.

[maxsolomon]

29. not immediately, but eventually, the emnity will go away

there is no fear where none is angry - cicero.

[Coastie for Truth]

22. Israel doesn't have any net hydrocarbon income

Israel is (not "probaby", but "is") ahead of the US in alternative, renewable, and green energy.

---Coastie,

PhD, Chemical Engineering
Professional Engineer

[maxsolomon]

28. not the point

israel is one of the 2 major issues that islamic radicals have with us. israel is seen as a US proxy that brutalizes arabs.

and it is seen as a subset of the main issue, oil, that is our motivation for interfering in the ME. would we be propping up israel with so many $ if there was no oil in the region?

i don't know. but israel's green power policy is not the point.

[Coastie for Truth]

33. You asked

"and it is seen as a subset of the main issue, oil, that is our motivation for interfering in the ME. would we be propping up israel with so many $ if there was no oil in the region?"

Yes - for some voters the survival of Israel is a LITMUS TEST issue - just like "Sanctity of Life" versus "Woman's Right To Choose" or "sanctity of Marriage" versus "Equal Rights."

Please explain how you see it as a "subset of the main issue, oil, that is our motivation for interfering in the ME". I am pro-Israel, pro-two state solution, and in the (non-petroleum) energy industry -- and I even understand Maxwell's Equations and Fourier Transforms and I don't see the nexus.

[maxsolomon]

36. in the militant arab perception

israel's army is a club america uses to beat muslims with.

without the oil we covet, we would have no reason to beat them with that club. certainly not to the tune of 3 billion in subsidies a year (my math is probably off).

i agree, for some voters, israel is the litmus test. but for others, it isn't. if oil was not our main national interest in the ME, continuing to support israel's military to the degree we do could be seen as a part of a religious war, a crusade if you will, against islam.

and what do you know, that's how our real enemy, al queda, sees it!

[Coastie for Truth]

37. And in the perception of many Americans

the threat of "games" with oil (denial of oil) is the hammer that the Arabs hold over "Big Oil's" head to engage in employment discrimination that - if practiced against women, African-Americans, gays, handicappers, etc. would be branded "Jim Crow" and "Apartheid" and ... ... (You can fill in the dots)

Read on--
1.

2.

And makle no mistake, the practice is as vile as "Jim Crow" or "Apartheid."

I do not follow your logic in "without the oil we covet, we would have no reason to beat them with that club. certainly not to the tune of 3 billion in subsidies a year" -- and I do understand object oriented programming, Maxwell's Equations, and Fourier Transforms.

Your statement "if oil was not our main national interest in the ME, continuing to support israel's military to the degree we do could be seen as a part of a religious war, a crusade if you will, against islam." just doesn't ring true. If the oil sheiks didn't play the scapegoating game of "blaming Israel" for their own Romanov like raping of their own people - there would be no problem.

My prediction - as soon as the Arab proletariat's attention is diverted from Israel as a scape goat - the House of Saud will fall like the Romanovs -- to be replaced by somebody more bellicose.

[maxsolomon]

39. that will teach me to mention israel in a thread on the ME

i might as well advocate simultaneous pit bull & gun control

[bluedawg12]

25. Israel and Palestinians would still need to come to peace. n/t

[Roland99]

30. What if we move Israel across the Atlantic?

;)

[bluedawg12]

31. And call it Miami?

That was just a joke.

shalom.

no flaming.

[Roland99]

34. Boca Del Vista...we can hang out with the Costanzas and Seinfelds.

[bluedawg12]

35. Heh, oiy , on my way to a big family re-union in N. Carolina

will let you know if the locale is friendly for all comers.

So far the machitanin have good things to say.