How will Edwards do in the upcoming primaries ?

[kentuck]

He has spent a lot of money in SC, his state of birth. But polls show that he is running even with Kerry in SC. What happens if he loses his home state and does not win in any of the other six states? Will he be forced to drop out? Will that hurt his chances at being the VP if he cannot win his own state? How could he help win other states in the South?

I think Edwards is a very attractive candidate but I think he may drop out after next week's primaries. The race will be narrowed to 3 candidates - Kerry, Dean, and Clark. Kucinich and Sharpton are not factors at this point. That is the direction I see us headed.

[jean]

1. you left out Joementum!

[Freddie Stubbs]

2. He is done if he loses SC

Definitely a VP possibility regardless of how he does. If Dean or Kerry are the nominee, it would be a good idea to have a Southerner on the ticket.

[leyton]

3. It will be tough in SC

since Hollings has endorsed Kerry, and if I'm not mistaken, Kerry is in second place (maybe it's Clark, who knows). Edwards will be campaigning hard in SC, though, while the other candidates will be in different states.

Another question - if Kerry and Clark win the other states, and Edwards wins South Carolina but nothing else, will it mean anything for Edwards? It seems Edwards did well in Iowa because he campaigned hard there, whereas he spent little time in NH, and didn't do so well there.

[kentuck]

7. If Edwards wins SC, he's right in the thick of the race....

It's sort of an all or nothing for him. He really needs a win. He could lose SC and possibly win in another state, I suppose. However, if Kerry wins 3 or 4 of the states, he will be the undisputed front-runner.

[jenk]

4. SC is so crucial, I think he will pull it out

Edwards is better organized in that state than any other candidate, he's had his eye on it since he first announced running for president, and I believe he will prevail.

Missouri and Oklahoma are also interesting, Edwards can make noise if he pulls an upset or maybe comes in 2nd to Kerry, he needs to take advantage of Dean falling into single digits.

[spooky3]

5. I'm not sure why one would predict that Clark is in a better

position than Edwards right now.

Let me say I like them BOTH and want them both in, but explain my thinking.

Edwards had a strong showing in Iowa and Clark did not (yes, I know he didn't run there, but my point is that Edwards can point to a strong showing outside of his back yard and Clark can't yet say that), and Edwards did not spend nearly as much time in NH, yet they were separated by less than .5% of the overall vote.

I think all the candidates need to do well in the primaries next week because it is so early. If Kerry were to win none of them (which I think unlikely), it would substantially slow his momentum, so he needs to do well too, though has less pressure than the others. I'll predict that someone will drop out after Feb. 3 but need to see the results, or at least polls just before Feb. 3, before I'll have any sense of who that might be. Yes, the polls were much more accurate for NH than IA, so I'm still interested in them; maybe I shouldn't be.

[mmonk]

6. Edwards's viability relies on SC,

Clark probably on Oklahoma or a Dakota, Dean on picking up a win somewhere in this next round of states. Everybody else in reality is essentially out of it IMO. But you never know, that's why you keep fighting for your candidate.

[pdx_prog]

8. Latest polls in SC

show Edwards out front with 32%....Kerry is bringing up the rear followed by Sharpton......how do you get he is running even with Kerry?

[kentuck]

10. The old codger from SC on C-SPAN this AM is considered an authority

on SC politics, and he also said that Kerry may even be ahead of Edwards now that he won in NH. He closed fast after winning Iowa, he said.

[genius]

9. The polls I've seen have him way ahead.

Kerry and Clark are doing well. Dean is in fifth place behind Lieberman. Kucinich supporters are in there until the convention where the expect Dennis to walk away the nominee.

[spooky3]

11. ARG has kerry closer to Edwards, but a lot of undecided