What if Dean doesn't win a state but continues to lead in delegates?

[kentuck]

If he doesn't win a state, there will be calls for him to withdraw from the race. However, if his race is the most consistent and he maintains the lead in delegates, isn't that how the nominee is eventually chosen at the convention? If Howard stays in this race 'til the end, he could have control of the delegate count and would be in a position to negotiate. Would that be a possibility? Especially if Clark were to win a few races and Kerry were not to do so well in a few states....

[lancdem]

1. He has to win primaries soon to keep that lead

which is tenuous anyway because it's superdelegates mostly.

[Monument]

4. Superdelegates: please explain

I'm curious about how "Superdelegates" work. Can they merely change their vote on a whim, thus making the actual primaries unimportant?

Obviously, I'm missing something, so I'm hoping somebody can give me an explanation.
Thanks

[SadEagle]

13. Yes and no

Superdelegates are high-ranking democratic party officials. Bill Clinton is a super delegate. So is Al Gore. So is John Kerry. So is every Demcoratic congressmen. Yes, they can vote however they want; but there are not THAT many of them, and the tradition is for them to respect the choice of party members. If one candidate win a very high percentage of delegates in the primaries, they can't make a difference. Otherwise, they might.

[HereSince1628]

20. There are 725 superdelegates,

in 2000 there werew 4339 delegates at the convention.

it will require something like 2,162 to win...

so superdelegates are about 16-17% of the total (about 1 in 6)
and the represent about 1/3 of the number that is required to win

Because these superdelegates represent elected leaders and democratic heros (much like the requirements of the DLC) the superdelegates are not only important but they represent the democratic establishment.
Like all establishments one wonders how open to challenge they are.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. Yeah, superdelegates are not really committed

they can vote for whoever they want at the convention, and they are not going to vote for someone who didn't win.

[kentuck]

15. And how likely is it that they would be unanimous in their support....

People like Charlie Rangel have come out for General Clark. Other Congressmen and Senators have come out for other candidates. They may be no more united than the other delegates?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

19. I'm not sure what you mean

but in the final analysis, superdelegates won't mean anything without winning primaries.

[HFishbine]

5. Not necessarily

If there are six different winners on Feb. 3, and the seventh candidate places second in each state, it's entirely possible that the delegate leader could still not have a win under his belt.

[SadEagle]

9. Not neccesserily.

Imagine if he comes in consistently w/close seconds in many states, while the winners are split? He may end up picking up more delegates than the others.

[mmonk]

2. It will eventually catch up with him

if he doesn't come away with a win. I personally think he can pick one up.

[Freddie Stubbs]

3. It would be hard for him to maintain the lead in delegates

without winning any states. It is a very remote possibility.

[TopesJunkie]

6. Sounds like Nascar!

The south will love him!

;)

[HFishbine]

8. Yeah

Exactly! That's a good way of putting it. The points leader at the end of the season may not have had a single win.

[displacedtexan]

7. The national party will decide who gets backing.

If Dean doesn't win any states, he is free to continue in the race without national party support, but not as a democrat. The party will choose its candidate. Period.

[kentuck]

10. I thought any candidate that wins delegates can go to the convention...

with those delegates. Of course that takes us back to the smoke-filled rooms of the past, but those delegates are negotiating tools to get what and who you want in the platform and on the ticket, since you have to have a majority to be the nominee. If John Kerry has the most delegates, but he doesn't have a majority, and perhaps Wes Clark has some and Howard Dean has the rest, something has to give somewhere - if neither of them drops out during the campaign.

[trogdor]

12. Primary delegates are obligated to vote for their candidate...

...on the first ballot, at least. After that, it's a free-for-all. If Dean (or anyone else) wins a majority of delegates, even without "winning" one single state, he wins. That's it.

Likelihood of this happening? Even Vegas won't put odds on that.

[markus]

17. Not true

If Dean retains a substantial faction of committed delegates past the first ballot, and nobody has a majority, then we have a brokered convention.

Can he do this? It is unlikely, unless we saw Edwards take off in the South and start racking up firsts to Dean's second, while Kerry does the same elsewhere.

Toss in a couple of firsts for Dean, and we have nobody with a first round win.

Then the party will pick its candidate.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. Superdelegates aren't committed; your premise is invalid.

[beyurslf]

16. It would be very unlikely for that to happen.

He would need 2nd places everywhere while first was being split among the other candidates with 3rd not meeting threshhold. This is "possible" but unlikely.

[theboss]

18. The math would cause your head to explode

For a scenario like this to occur, Dean would have to finish a close second in every state, while Kerry vacilates from first place in very specific states and fifth place in others. He would also need to keep the Superdelegates with him, while never actually winning.

John Nash could probably write a formula for this; I couldn't.