Maybe Dean trails Kerry because voters actually prefer Kerry.

[boxster]

What a concept. Seems like a simple, obvious statement, right?

Well, guess again. Everyone - from the media to many of Dean's supporters - is blaming Dean's 2nd place finish in NH and 3rd in Iowa on everyone and everything on earth except Dean himself.

It's the "establishment" beating him down. (Except for Gore, Harkin, et al, of course.)

It's Clark, Kerry, Edwards, Gephardt, and others bashing him.

It's push polling. Dirty tricks. The DLC. The RNC.

It's the media bashing Dean and only Dean. (Yeah, right!)

It's name recognition. (Ok, so it's NOT name recognition. At least his supporters can't claim that anymore now, can they? :) )

Well, perhaps the problem with Dean's campaign is, well...Dean!

More accurately, maybe it's his approach and his methods. Is it possible that Dean just isn't getting the message out? Is it possible that the millions of dollars he's spent and the thousands of volunteers just aren't swaying the public?

Is it possible that people like the message, just not the messenger? Obviously, his supporters like his "passion". Is it possible that they are the minority and that the average voter thinks that it's excessive?

Is it possible that people are more concerned about national security and countering Bush's false military bravado than the polls would indicate? If so, Kerry's military experience provides a distinct advantage on Dean, merely by default. His foreign policy experience is obviously more extensive, as well.

Something is obviously amiss, because barely a month ago, Dean had a 30 point lead in NH and looked to be on his way to the nomination. Some of his more vocal supporters were telling us to throw in the towel and jump on the bandwagon.

Now, he's in the newly-found position of underdog and is going to have to adapt to have a chance of winning the nomination.

It's easy to blame the media. The other campaigns. The negative press coverage. Push polling. Weather. The alignment of the planets. Sun spots. You name it, it's been blamed.

Dr. Dean certainly is not unique in experiencing these things. Kerry has faced intense scrutiny not only in this election cycle, but in elections past. Clark is undergoing it as we speak.

Fortunately, Dean seems to understand these issues, because he's taking obvious steps to adapt to the current political climate. His post-NH speech was great, and I hope that we see/hear more of the same in the near future, because this guy could still end up being our nominee.

Time will tell if he has time to turn things around.

Disclaimer: I'm a Clark supporter, but firmly ABB. I just want to win in November, damn it!

[maddezmom]

1. I'm inclined to agree

but still holding out for my man Wes to win a few. :)

[JI7]

4. i think he will win some next week

pretty sure clark will get oklahoma. i think edwards will take south carolina, but a strong second would be good for clark. though i'm hoping kerry does well enough there.

[Dark Star]

2. Could it be that

ordinary voters actually do research? If so, they might have found that what Dean says doesn't jibe with what he did in VT.

(same disclaimer as you :hi: )

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. I'm a Wes Clark fan, but the voters are attracted to Kerry who...I

is my second choice.

I dissagree with him on his vote for the Iraq war and the Patriot Act but he has a great progressive voting record. He is more liberal than Dean is.

I also agree with you that "I just want to win in November, damn it!"

[boxster]

6. Time to add that to my sig line, I do believe....

I'm looking forward to 2/3 - Clark's doing great in the polls in the 2/3 states, so I'm hoping that they hold up!!

[Rowdyboy]

5. It's all "skull and bones"

from what I hear (((sarcasm off)))

[boxster]

12. To steal a line from Howard Dean, every time I see a post about S&B,

it makes me want to scream!

The people who claim that he'll forward the S&B agenda once he's president obviously haven't been paying attention to his past 30 years of public service.

If he wanted to forward the agenda, wouldn't you think he would have done so by now? It's not like he hasn't been in a position of power before now!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

7. Democracy... what a concept.

[sistersofmercy]

8. Very well said, Boxster!

:toast: ABB all the way!

[kerryistheanswer]

9. That's not possible! Those Dean supporters were brainwashed

I mean, how could they like a bush-lite, skull and bones, war-loving, poor-people hating, right winger from the northeast?

[maggrwaggr]

10. Kerry's appeal -- one word: experience

that's my take on it.

I'm a Dean supporter, by the way. But I think people are responding to Kerry's tremendous level of national experience over those of the less experienced candidates.

Just my 2 cents

[TreasonousBastard]

11. Yeah...

Clark's on the top of my list too, but I'll gladly take anybody we can get to dump Shrub.

The more I find out about what Dean actually seems to believe, and what he actually did as Governor, the less I trust him with several of my major concerns. The environment and criminal justice being two of them. And, Dean is not anti-war, just anti-THIS-war. I have absolutely no idea how he'll handle foreign affairs or deal with US hegemony.

I suspect that the actual voters share some of my concerns.

I suppose we should keep it in mind that it's not a couple of thousand people at Meetups who count, but millions of primary voters.

Then, we have to convince at least 60 million people to vote for our guy, whoever that is.

Anyway, if Dean can pull his ass out of the fire, he's OK. If he can't, well... anybody who can't pull his ass out of a fire he built has no business being President.

The voters will figure it all out.

[Monument]

13. Kerry made a real connection with voters

I truly believe that John Kerry made an honest-to-god connection with voters across both Iowa and New Hampshire. I think he was suprisingly good (from what I hear) during his 1 on 1 discussions with voters in coffee shops and the like. For whatever reason, people turned onto Kerry, and it wasn't all about Dean.

Kerry was a VERY good campaigner in Iowa. Remember how he was surging in the polls in Iowa? This was due to his relentless discussions with the candidates. This was also well before "the scream" and the whole issue of electability.

[tryanhas]

14. It's simple

That's because they don't know A THING about the real John Kerry, period.

**spit**

[sistersofmercy]

15. Need to expel some sour grapes with that * *spit* *?

:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

[sangh0]

20. Well, sour grapes would explain

the unpleasant whine :-)

[sistersofmercy]

23. BWAHAHAHAHA!

Good one! :7 OMG Kerry is going to be here in St Louis in a few hours, I'm so excited! I can't wait. It's at 4:30, right in the middle of traffic, oh well.

[sangh0]

32. Say Hi for me

/

[MaineDem]

16. Reality...what a concept

Have to agree with you here.

[genius]

17. Good posting. The voters knew what they were doing in this battle.

It's not like Dennis's situation where the press has pretended he didn't exist.

[kentuck]

18. We shouldn't assume that two small states, Iowa and NH, are like ...

the other 48 states that have not yet voted. They may have a different opinion. No doubt, the Party establishment would like a nominee as soon as possible. But, this time, the people are going to make the decision. Kerry may be the choice, but it won't be because he has been chosen by the powers-to-be....

[bigtree]

19. I think Gov. Dean created the climate

for an aggressive, no-holds barred assault on the Bush administration. His contributions to the debate against Bush will serve him or any of the candidates who manage to get the nod. As our future president, or as an involved citizen, Gov. Dean will leave a large (welcome) imprint in our party's platform.

[CWebster]

21. When asked ,the ONLY reason voters stated they prefer Kerry

is because he is perceived to be more "electible" For months he was polling below Sharpton, having lost his standing at the onset and in a freefall. What changed? The kingmakers behind Kerry, not Kerry, and part of the campaign to annoit Kerry was to destroy Dean. So it was orchestrated to portray Dean as less electible - without taking into account his stunning accomplishments attesting to sheer electibility. Hey, it's politics, but no one should suffer under the illusion that is based on Kerry's innate charm and personal appeal. It is all about power and not the sort I am interested in voting for.

[bigtree]

22. Gallup 1/27 - Kerry Victory Would Be Broad-Based

Gender

Kerry is the top candidate among both men and women likely voters, leading Dean by 11 points among men and by 13 among women. Kerry does slightly better among women (39%) than men (34%). Clark and Lieberman are both polling better among men than women.

Age

To date, the conventional wisdom (as well as the finding of many polls) is that Dean has the market cornered on the youth vote. Indeed, Dean cites the enthusiasm of his young supporters in Iowa as the reason for his now-famous scream in his concession speech there. In New Hampshire, however, Kerry (35%) gets a larger share of the vote among 18- to 34-year-olds than does Dean (32%), though the difference is within the margin of error. Dean's support is not as great among older voters in New Hampshire, while Kerry scores similarly among all age groups. As a result, Kerry has a fairly strong lead among middle-aged voters (he leads Dean by 10 percentage points) and older voters (he leads Dean by 17 points). Edwards does considerably worse among the youngest age group (getting just 6% support) than he does among voters aged 35 to 54 (12%). Clark and Lieberman, like Kerry, score about the same among all age groups.


Education

Dean's national lead in fundraising is often attributed to his appeal to highly educated, wealthier Democrats. In New Hampshire, Dean does considerably better among those with a postgraduate education (29%) than among those with a four-year college degree (19%) and somewhat better among those who do not have a college degree (24%). But again, Kerry does just as well as Dean does among postgrads, and much better among those with less education than that. Kerry leads Dean by 22 points among college graduates and 14 points among non-college graduates. Edwards receives a larger share of support from college graduates than postgraduates or non-college graduates.

Voting Intention in New Hampshire Primary by Education, Likely Voters


Ideology

Some of the largest subgroup differences in primary voting this year are found among ideological groups. Even so, New Hampshire voters of all political persuasions support Kerry at high levels. Other candidates' support is more related to ideology. Specifically, 40% of self-identified liberal New Hampshire voters are supporting Dean, while only 3% support Lieberman and just 7% support Clark. Among self-described conservative primary voters (which amounts to only one out of six primary voters), 24% support Lieberman and 16% support Clark, while just 8% support Dean, placing him fifth in this subgroup. Moderate voters' candidate preferences generally mirror the results of the overall ballot, though Clark tends to do somewhat better and Dean somewhat worse among this group.


Party Registration

The New Hampshire primary is a "semi-open primary," meaning residents who are not currently registered to vote, or who are registered as independents, may vote in the primary (Republicans may not vote in this year's Democratic primary). As such, significant numbers of independents often vote in the presidential primaries in New Hampshire, and Gallup's polling suggests that a larger number of independents may vote in this year's primary than has been the case historically. Again, the data show Kerry leads comfortably among both groups. If New Hampshire were a closed primary state (in which only those currently registered as Democrats would be able to vote), Clark and Lieberman would probably not be faring as well as the polls indicate. If larger numbers of independent voters go to the polls as predicted, that would likely mean higher levels of support for Clark, Lieberman, and Edwards.

[CWebster]

25. Ooops, forgot the popularity findings, I see

Where it mentions only Kerry supporters like Kerry...

[boxster]

26. I'm sorry, but Kerry didn't get nearly 40% of the vote because the

"kingmakers" told the voters to vote for him. Not everyone is so easily swayed.

I think it's more likely that early polls mean little to nothing and that Kerry's appeal was grossly underestimated by the Dean campaign, the media, and others.

[Schmendrick54]

31. Agree and disagree.

Hi boxster.

I certainly agree that it is unlikely that 38% of NH voters were swayed by "kingmakers". But I do not see any reason to question the pollsters in NH. Since their last second polling results were quite accurate, it seems to me that the most plausible explanation is that Kerry really was in the lead in NH early on, Dean really did overtake him and build a huge lead which Dean then lost around the Iowa caucuses as Kerry jumped to a ~18% lead which Dean then cut into somewhat over the last weekend.

I think the "electability" theory (See my lengthy reply to your original post for details on this theory) is the simplest one which is consistent with the available facts (i.e.; historical polling data - including the exit polls.) In a nutshell, my theory is that a significant part of Kerry's "appeal" (the part that seemed to go away and then suddenly come back) is based on the perception of his electability. That is. when the polls showed him fading into the teens in NH, they were NOT underestimating his appeal -- if the vote had occurred then I think he would not have polled above 20% - rather, the polls were tracking people's perceptions of his electability. This is the type of feedback loop which makes for a very volatile race.

To test my theory we would need some sequence of events which would cause the perception of Kerry's electability to drop relative to one of the other candidates, and then look to see if there is a significant change in those candidate's polling strength. Whether such an opportunity presents itself or not in the next few weeks remains to be seen, of course.

We live in interesting times, indeed.

Regards,
Schmendrick

[sangh0]

24. Voters??

That's just crazy talk!!

[curse10]

27. LoL

:thumbsup:

[Schmendrick54]

28. Maybe, maybe not. (warning -- verbose)

Hi Boxster,

You may be right, but the exit polls sort of undercut your argument. According to the exit poll findings from another thread:

REASON FOR SUPPORTING CANDIDATE
- Dean and Lieberman voters tended to support their candidate because of how they felt about the issues, rather than electability. For Kerry it was, dramatically the reverse.

That is, exit pollls indicate that many Kerry voters chose him because they percieved him to be "electable". Of course, maybe that's what you mean by "they like him".

Does it really matter "why" they like" him? I think it does, and to explain why, here are some of my thoughts about the race so far. I will number them so you can more easily respond if you care to. I would really be interested in whether or not Kerry supporters agree or disagree with these observations. I do not offer these thoughts as excuses, and I am not "blaming" anyone for anything. Just sharing my thoughts.

1. Several months ago Howard Dean moved from obscurity to front-runner status in the polls. (I don't think Kerrry supporters would dispute this, but let me know if you do.)

2. I believe this was because he was speaking out most forcefully against Bush in general, but especially about the war. (Of course, DK and AS were also speaking out, but they did not get the attention which Dean did -- probably because Dean's fundraising, and successful record as a moderate governor and his ability to draw crowds a year before the election made him seem a serious candidate.)

3. After Building up a huge lead in NH polling and a tie for first in Iowa, Dean threatened to run away with the nomination. Many pundits suggested that Kerry had no chance.

4. All of the other major candidates adjusted the tone of their campaigns to more closely follow Dean's; i.e., they became more forthright in their criticism of Bush. It was becoming increasingly evident that there is a huge groundswell of energy which is a backlash to the criminality which is the core of the Bush regime.

5. In a desperate (and eventually futile) attempt to keep his candidacy alive, Dick Gephardt launched a fierce series of attacks against Dean in Iowa, with some help from the Club for Growth. Dean also launched some negative attacks on Gephardt. (Some will argue that Dean started it -- I don't know for sure -- maybe so -- it is not really relevant to my discussion.

6. As the result of Iowans rejecting both Dean and Gephardt due to their disgust with the negative tone of the campaign, Kerry and Edwards swooped in to win the prize.

7. Howard Dean then gave his speech in Iowa which was spun to a fare-the-well by the SCLM to imply that he was unstable.

8. The NH voters apparently share the enthusiasm for booting Shrub from office, and a large number choose the candidate which they think has the best chance to do that as of yesterday. Given the beating Dean took from the SCLM after Iowa, and the surprise performance of Kerry there, his support soared.

9. Dean, who fell behind by as much as 19% in the polls in NH, managed to allay a lot of the fears about his temperament in his TV appearances, and bounced back to a 12.5% loss.

10. Now that Kerry is clearly back again as the front runner, he is already starting to take the beating in the press which Dean siphoned away from him for a few months. This morning, on the local news/traffic/weather station there was already the obligatory editorial on the aftermath of NH, with the analyst saying that (paraphrasing) "Kerry's speech about lifting up millions of poor people rather than taxcuts for the millionaires sounds like punishing the productive to reward the non-productive and reminds me of another candidate from Massachusetts who ran against the first Bush in 1992, and we all remember how well Dukakis did." (These are not my words, just what I heard on WTOP (a DC radio station) this morning).

So, my point is just that it IS possible that the fact that 39% of the voters chose Kerry yesterday is due in no small part to the idea that they think he has the best chance to win. I think that makes more sense than the idea that they used to like Kerry the best, then switched to Dean (when he lead the polls) then changed their minds again.

Why does this matter? In a week, voters in 7 other states will make their preferences known. Many of them are in parts of the country where the Kerry = Dukakis/Kennedy liberal theme will cause many of them to think Kerry CANNOT beat Bush, I expect his results to be significantly poorer than his showings in Iowa and NH. What will be interesting to see is whether or not Dean's more moderate positions on guns and budgets will resonate in these other states, or Clark and Edwards will pick up all the slack.

Another factor is the notion of retail and wholesale politics. Traditionally the former is practiced in Iowa and NH, and the latter takes over after that, because there are too many states and too many voters to approach individually after NH. Some have suggested that Howard Dean's grassroots support would have it's greatest effect in Iowa and NH, and since it did not deliver victories in those states it is no longer a factor. I suggest that the opposite is true. I believe the size and dedication of the Dean campaign's volunteer corps will make it possible for him to have significant numbers of volunteers knocking on doors in all seven of the Feb. 3 states; and that they will be more successful than they were in Iowa and NH for two reasons -- (1) people in Iowa and NH are used to seeing candiates and volunteers in person, people in other states are not; and (2) they will not be competing with so many volunteers from other candidates. I am suggesting that the voters in SC and DE and NM (for example) will respond to the presence of these volunteers (who did not disappear when the pundits said Dean was dead) and the barrage of Kerry criticism in the media (which will increase now that he is the front-runner) by deciding that maybe Dean is the electable one after all. And I think these are the voters which swung from Kerry to Dean and back to Kerry in NH, and I think they could swing back again.

This is not meant to imply that Kerry has not run a good campaign or did not deserve his victories in NH and Iowa, or should not be considered the front runner for the nomination. Nor do I think he is a bad candidate. I will enthusiastically work for him should he win the nomination. I am just saying that rumors of the demise of all the other viable candidates chances may be a bit premature (by viable I mean Dean, Clark, and Edwards, as well as the favorite, Kerry).

So I will conclude that it is possible that people don't like the messenger (Dean), as you have suggested. But it is also possible that opinions are swaying violently as people are guaging electability; and that is a door that can definitely swing both ways.

Best regards,
Schmendrick (the verbose)


Edited for some typos.

[KFC]

29. How the hell can you get more votes if more voters vote for you?

Makes no sense.

Crazy talk.

I may pass out.

[retyred]

30. One thing that I found telling was

in the exit polls, both Kerry and Clark were the first two choices people picked for beating * by a large percentage.


retyred in fla
“Good-Night Paul, Wherever You Are”
So I read this book

[NewYorkerfromMass]

33. Both Iowa and NH had a full YEAR to look at everyone

No media spin in the world could change the fact that they had full and fair access and exposure.

[mitchum]

34. Yep, when you're selling flowers at the airport...

you have to make sure someone really wants to buy those flowers.

Kerry 2004

[Lydia Leftcoast]

35. I don't think Dean supporters understand

that while he has a lot of adoring followers, he also has what seems like an equal number of people who just don't like him--and didn't like him even during the period when the media were treating his campaign as the unstoppable wave of the future.

I've mentioned on another thread how ten of my Minnesota relatives, unprompted by me, said that they thought Dean was "cocky," "slick," and "the yuppie candidate." They thought that Kerry had experience and had paid his dues. Dean was one of the candidates they didn't like, in addition to Lieberman and Sharpton, and they thought Gephardt was okay but a "has-been." The rest they either liked (Kerry, Edwards, Moseley-Braun) or didn't know much about (Kucinich, Clark).

Granted, ten people isn't a large sample, but I was surprised to find that none of them were in favor of the supposed frontrunner.

Personally, I (along with some other MN Dems) find it offensive that he stole Paul Wellstone's slogan ("I'm from the Democratic wing of the Democratic party") and spirited oratorical style to cover up a so-so record as governor and an unremarkable centrist platform.

I'm going to vote for Kucinich in the Minnesota caucuses, but if Kucinich weren't running, and I had a forced choice between Kerry and Dean, I'd take Kerry any time. He is what he is--an established politician from the left-center part of the Dem spectrum who is intelligent and well-versed in international and strategic matters. I don't know what Dean is, other than someone who knows how to fire up a crowd but otherwise a bit of a loose cannon.

[bearfartinthewoods]

36. why do they suddenly like kerry?

what has changed about kerry since the time when he was polling in single digits? i'd really like an answer to that.

[David Dunham]

37. Dean Became a One Issue (Antiwar) Candidate

Dean came to be seen as a one issue (antiwar) candidate at the same time that the war was fading as the central issue in voters' minds. Kerry has many dimensions, by contrast.

[George_Bonanza]

38. Great post

Calling Iowans and NHites idiots or panderers to the omnipresent "establishment insider" is a hollow argument. The people have spoken. Unless you want a dictatorship, you cannot challenge that.