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Since 1988, both Iowa and New Hampshire have been 5 for 8 in picking winners of nominations, 3 for 6 when no incumbent was involved. Two of our last three Presidents finished third in Iowa a year before becoming President.
Those in Blue won their party's nomination.
Iowa
1988
Democrats 1. Dick Gephardt: 31% 2. Paul Simon: 27% (Rest In Peace, Paul.) 3. Michael Dukakis: 22% 4. Jesse Jackson: 9% 5. Bruce Babbitt: 6%
Republicans 1. Robert Dole: 37% 2. Pat Robertson: 25% 3. George Bush: 19% 4. Jack Kemp: 11% 5. Pete du Pont: 7%
1992
1. Tom Harkin: 76% 2. Paul Tsongas: 4% (Again, Rest In Peace, Paul.) 3. Bill Clinton: 3% 4. Bob Kerrey: 2% 5. Jerry Brown: 2%
G.H.W.B. was unopposed
1996
Big Dog was unopposed
1. Bob Dole: 27% 2. Pat Buchanan: 23% 3. Lamar Alexander: 18% 4. Steve Forbes: 10% 5. Phil Gramm: 9% 6. Alan Keyes: 7% 7. Richard Lugar: 4%
2000
No Democratic results were available on CNN.com, but I do know Al Gore won.
Republicans 1.George W. Bush: 41% 2. Steve Forbes: 30% 3. Alan Keyes: 14% 4. Gary Bauer: 9% 5. John McCain: 5% 6. Orrin Hatch: 1%
New Hampshire
1988
Democrats: 1. Michael Dukakis: 36% 2. Dick Gephardt: 20% 3. Paul Simon: 17% 4. Jesse Jackson: 8% 5. Al Gore: 7% 6. Bruce Babbitt: 5% 7. Gary Hart: 4%
Republicans 1. George Bush: 38% 2. Bob Dole: 28% 3. Jack Kemp: 13% 4. Pete du Pont: 10% 5. Pat Robertson: 9%
1992
Democrats 1. Paul Tsongas: 33% 2. Bill Clinton: 25% 3. Bob Kerrey: 11% 4. Tom Harkin: 10% 5. Jerry Brown: 8%
Republicans 1. George Bush: 53% 2. Pat Buchanan: 37%
1996
Democrats 1. Bill Clinton: 84% 2. Pat Paulsen: 1%
Republicans 1. Pat Buchanan: 27% 2. Bob Dole: 26% 3. Lamar Alexander: 23% 4. Steve Forbes: 12% 5. Richard Lugar: 5% 6. Alan Keyes: 3%
2000
Democrats 1. Al Gore: 50% 2. Bill Bradley: 46%
Republicans 1. John McCain: 49% 2. George W. Bush: 30% 3. Steve Forbes: 13% 4. Alan Keyes: 6%
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