Kerry's latest gaffe .. read on

[Hawkeye-X]

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-ny--newyorkprimary0128jan28,0,3349530.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire

ALBANY, N.Y. -- Front-runner John Kerry failed to qualify delegate slates in about one-third of New York's 29 congressional districts for the state's March 2 Democratic presidential primary, a review of records showed Wednesday.

Only former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina will have delegate slates in all the state's 29 congressional districts.

Sen. Kerry of Massachusetts, coming off victories in the Iowa caucuses and Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, failed to qualify delegate slates in nine congressional districts, according to state Board of Election records.

New York has 285 delegates. If Dean won New York, it'll render most of the candidates finished. And that's on a Super Tuesday.

SO EVEN if Kerry wins NY, he'll get less than half of the total delegates.

Hawkeye-X

[_Jumper_]

1. IF Dean is around for the NY primary

If he doesn't win on 2/3 he is finished.

[Hawkeye-X]

4. Uh.. no.

Dean has enough $$ to make it through Super Tuesday, and that's the NY primary. Edwards is running out of cash and won"t make it. Neither will Clark after suffering a defeat of 3rd and no delegates.

[Jerseycoa]

13. Clark has enough money

To go through Super Tuesday -- $19M.

[xultar]

40. Does that include his FEC money or are they so po'

they can't pay the candidates?

[The_Counsel]

9. So You're Admitting...

...that Edwards is toast after South Carolina as well? He's in the same position as Dean, only Dean now has more delegates (unless my math is faulty).

Kerry is about to break his bank in an attempt to end this thing early. Dean still has more money than any other candidate not named Bush. I like Dean's chances. They could be better, but I still like 'em...

[NewHampster]

2. Cool

[Renew Deal]

3. I petitioned in NY

There weer no known Kerry petitioners to be seen. No one knew how Kerry, Edwards, and Liberman got on the ballot. It turns out that they paid people to go out and petition. Clark, Dean and Kucinich used volunteers.

[Cassandra]

43. And those are the petitions I signed

Clark, Dean and Kucinich, in that chronological order.

[sangh0]

5. You do realize

that those are Republican districts?


And your math is a bit off. Missing 1/3 of the NY's districts means getting 2/3 od the delegates, not "less than half"

[cindyw]

6. Wrong. Read on. I know you are on a roll today in a flash of negativity,

but try doing it with Dean's message.

"The Kerry campaign filed petitions in at least four districts that were short of the required number of signatures, as did the Clark, Gephardt and Sharpton campaigns, according to a review of petitions by The Associated Press. Because none of those petitions were formally challenged by rival campaigns, the state board accepted them.

In New York, because there are separate petitions for candidates and for delegate slates, the effect of not qualifying delegate slates is minimal but can be a sign of organizational strength.

New York Democrats cast ballots for the candidate of their choice and that vote determines how many delegates each candidate wins in any particular congressional district. Voters also cast ballots for the delegates they want to represent the candidate at the national convention.

Under state party rules, when a candidate qualifies for delegates but has no slate running in a particular district, the state party appoints delegates who are bound to that candidate through the first ballot at the convention. "

edited for spelling

[sangh0]

7. Hahahahaha!

Another Hawkeye debunking!! You're on a roll HX!!!

[Catholic Sensation]

11. DAMN IT CINDY

Don't you bring facts into this discussion. The vast minority of Dean's supporters who are remarkably ignorant (but inexplicably loud) won't be able to handle it.

[Hawkeye-X]

17. Well, if the state

gives special favors to Kerry, then he'll be guaranteed to lose New York.

HAWKEYE-X

[boxster]

23. "Under state party rules"

Doesn't sound like special favors to me.

[sangh0]

25. Funny how some posters

who don't have a certain avatar seem to understand simple English like "under state party rules"

[henslee]

38. can someone give me an assiging of delegates in NY for Dummies link?

[sangh0]

49. I doubt it

NYS rules are notoriously complicated.

[sangh0]

24. really grasping there

The "special favors" you allude to are the rules for the party in NY State. They apply to all the candidates

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Hawkeye-X]

14. Dude.

Kerry is bad. I'll re-emphasize it for you. He'll be resoundingly defeated on a 50-state landslide to *.

BAD

[THUNDER HANDS]

19. lol

I want to know something before I respond to this.

Who are you supporting?

[Hawkeye-X]

29. The guy with the true balls

to go after * and not go after the OTHER democrats and even not pulling any dirty tricks, LIKE your candidate is doing.

:eyes: (and you have a free guess too, and it ain't Hamm or Vermin Supreme)

Hawkeye-X

[cindyw]

33. "not go after the OTHER democrats" hahahahahahahha

okay I'm done now.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

51. LaRouche?

[molly]

20. No he won't!

[Catholic Sensation]

21. Okay let's use simple logic here

If Kerry gets more votes from his own party than Dean, but would be landslided in a fifty state election, how would Howard Dean do?

For that matter, how would the rest of the party's members do? With the exception of Edwards, not very well apparently.

[THUNDER HANDS]

28. shhhh, you're using logic

Logic doesn't apply with most of these anti-Kerry people.

[Hawkeye-X]

31. I'm using logic.

Kerry's platform is all wrong.

Dean'S platform is what will work in the GE and will deliver the majority of the voters to the Democratic Party. Kerry would be lucky if he mustered maybe 30M. Dean can deliver maybe 70M.

Hawkeye-X

[Catholic Sensation]

37. What kind of logic are you using?

The Republican "We said Iraq had WMDs, there aren't any, therefore we were right" logic?

[Hawkeye-X]

39. Look at the facts

Dean is bringing out roughly 39% of the voters who has NEVER voted before and have inspired them. What has Kerry done? Absolutely nothing.

Translate 39% the other 50M voters who has never voted or don't care into nationwide, which means 1.95M more voters and enough to defeat * twice.

Hawkeye-X

[sangh0]

42. What has Kerry done?

He got that "39% of the voters who has NEVER voted before" to vote for HIM!!!

[Catholic Sensation]

44. Your logic is so frustratingly illogical I'm having a stroke

and I'm only 21.

Dean has not translated this "inspiration" into victory has he?

[sangh0]

50. If you have a stroke

you might then understand his arguments. Then you could explain them to us.

Or not. :-)

[molly]

47. Hopefully those voters are DEM voters - right?

[The_Counsel]

48. Isn't That The Same Logic...

...we SHOULD have been using when everyone was bashing Dean before the FIRST primary?

Folks here kept saying that Dean must be stopped because he was going to lose the general election in a landslide of McGovern-like proportions. I kept wondering how that would happen after getting all that support from Democrats.

Remember: McGovern was something like the second or third option in '72. Whoever wins the Dem nomination fair and square in '04 will have as good a chance at beating Bush as anybody...

[PVnRT]

30. The same could be said

of all the anti-Dean posters around here. But I guess those people are OK, right?

[Jerseycoa]

10. Wes looks prepared

"The board this week approved delegates slates for Dean and Edwards in all 29 congressional districts; for former Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas in all but two districts; and for Rep. Richard Gephardt in all but four districts."

I read yesterday somewhere that Kerry has a special dispensation and will appear on all ballots. Or am I confusing things?

[sangh0]

26. You are confusing things

Read the article, then read this thread. All has been explained.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

12. Maybe this will be the magic bullet

that stops Kerry from winning the nomination.

You think so?

lol

[sangh0]

15. Didn't Dukakis lose because he didn't file in NYS districts?

I hear that issue is a brutal one!! :-)

[mikehiggins]

16. I guess you don't come from NY, Hawky

A deal was cut in Albany (boy, is THAT ever a NY phrase) that no one would be kept off the ballot because they had petition problems. This is not the usual practice. Usually NY is the paramount example of using picky little details to knock your guy off the ballot. Nobody is interested in gaining the enmity of the supporters of any of these guys, though, so nobody's making waves.

As to the delegates in a county a candidate doesn't have delegates in, the state party appoints people who will vote on the first ballot, according to the vote in that district. So, even if they don't have "delegates" in an area, the winning candidates will still get some pledged convention votes from the contest. They just won't be able to pick who those people will be.

Generally, though, the State party will ask the winners to suggest the people to appoint. Just common sense by the standards of NY politics.

[Hawkeye-X]

18. No, but..

I went to college in Rochester and my wife's from Brooklyn. I tend to follow a bit of NY politics.

Hawkeye-X

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[sangh0]

27. Thanks for reminding me about that

They changed the laws a few years ago because candidates were being tossed off the ballot because they had used a red paper clip on their petitions instead of the official blue paper clip.

[Lady President]

22. Not a big deal

I'm not understanding why not having full delegate slates is a gaffe or a big deal. In fact it's another example of how Kerry's campaign was written off, but has now had a remarkable upswing.

Just because he doesn't have a full slate does not mean he won't receive all the delegates he deserves based on votes. Delegates will be chosen as needed after the primary.

I was a caucus chair for Kerry in Ohio and we didn't have a full slate either. If Kerry receives over 15% of the vote, the Dem. Party will simply schedule a post-primary caucus to fill the vacancies. In my district Kucinich, Clark, and Dean are the only candidates remaining with a full slate. Edwards doesn't have any delegates in either of the districts near me which is very likely to change too.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

34. So Bush tried to disqualify McCain from NY in 2000

C'mon. Get with the program and support democracy.

[Hawkeye-X]

35. I'll support democracy

if the nominee is Dean. Kerry is not what democracy is all about if he enables * on critical votes.

Hawkeye-X

[cindyw]

36. Not that pointing this out to you makes any difference, but

Kerry voted with KENNEDY on NCLB. He voted with EVERYONE on the PA. We would have to empty the Congress by your standards.

[Catholic Sensation]

41. Huh?

I believe voting for who/what one believes in is what democracy is, not being forced to vote how a whiney minority of one's ideology wants someone to vote.

[damnraddem]

45. No, he would get the delegates.

But those from the districts he failed to qualify in would be bound to him only for the first vote at the convention. They would be 'appointed delegates' bound to him only that far. It would only matter if the nomination is till contested at convention time; or if he's not the winner. He couldn't make any deals on the basis of those delegates.

[cthrumatrix]

46. just vote Dean...it's easier