Is Dean running out of money?

[kstewart33]

From Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.com:

This item is buried in a Wall Street Journal story on yesterday's primary: "The major Democratic contenders all have nearly exhausted their campaign treasuries; advisers say that even Mr. Dean, who raised an unmatched $40 million in 2003, has less than $5 million left. That leaves all the candidates largely dependent on attention from the news media to reach voters as they move from small venues and intensive personal campaigning to far-flung contests that play out almost entirely on television screens."

Dan Conley makes the same observation and notes "the Dean campaign has burned through it's treasury faster than a five pool table dot-com company."

Link: http://politicalwire.com/

[Hoppin_Mad]

1. I sent $50 last night - The bat is rising fast - Thanks for posting -nt-

[Hawkeye-X]

2. NOPE

I wouldn't trust Political Wire with this bullshit assertion.

Dean is continuing to raise funds, and said has enough funds to run through Super Tuesday. Despite Kerry's two wins in Iowa and NH, Kerry is still 2nd to Dean's 122 delegates vs Kerry's 95. And conventinal wisdom tells me that Kerry won't do very well in the South or the West, despite what polls say.

Hawkeye-X

[Frodo]

5. I agree, but...

I wouldn't expect Dean to do too well in the South either.

I expect we'll see a couple more shifts in sentiment before it's all over.


Oh, and I doubt he's spent 35M of his 40M raised. He was going to blow past the single state limits for IA and NH... but not by THAT much. Probably 15M of the 40M was spent just in raising it. I'd bet he has 8-10M left. Perhaps they are counting some pre-spending he's already made in the next states?

[Cassandra]

6. Sounds like Dean has singlehandedly improved...

the New Hampshire economy. I don't think his funds are that low and he's been spending them on campaign organization across the country, something that the others still need money for. That article makes it sound as though he's been pissing the money away, which isn't so.

[ieoeja]

7. Serious Question Here

How does that break down, and where do you find this? Aside from Iowa, New Hampshire and DC, where has Dean gotten his delegates? Or did he get enough in DC to push him ahead of Kerry?

[Frodo]

8. He only got one in DC.

The party has a system that allows hundreds of votes to be cast at the convention by "super delegates" (everyone in Congress and certain party leaders I think) that are not awarded by primary - but instead vote their personal preference. A few of these have already announced how they are voting.

Now, those votes CAN change (they aren't bound like many primary delegates are), but their current position probably reflects who they want to win. The variable is how they reposition when a candidate drops out. That's probably why Lieberman was floating the "suspend campaigning" message instead of dropping out. He may want to take his delegates to the convention in hopes of brokering a slot for himself (not VP again I hope, but perhaps cabinet or ambassador)

[ieoeja]

10. I found the Green Papers online.

Which give state by state details for HOW they are allocated. But I haven't found anything which gives WHAT has been allocated. The non-binding super delegates make up 20% of the total. As you say, they can change their minds anytime they want up to the casting of each ballot.

Of course, doing so would likely be rather embarrassing unless their indicated candidate drops or does something truly outrageous or illegal.

[robsul82]

3. It would take a Republican to burn through what we've given him...

...and the Doctor sure isn't that.

Later.

RJS

[Anwen]

11. I agree.

Dean is a fiscal conservative, after all :)

[mikehiggins]

4. How could that be?

This sounds like more media bullshit to weaken Dean's candidacy. If anyone is short on bucks it has to be KErry. How many mansions can he mortgage before they become a drag on the market?

I've stopped buying Heinz ketchup.

[LuminousX]

12. Kerry mortgages his house, can his wife pay the note?

This seems like a shifty way to get her money into the campaign.

[MercutioATC]

9. Dean was raising roughly $1M/week before Iowa.

I understand that things have supposedly slowed down in the past couple of days, but I really don't see a problem here.

[OneBlueSky]

13. how the hell did he blow through $35 million so fast?

to paraphrase Al Sharpton, "If I'd spent as much as you (in Iowa) and come in third, I'd STILL be screamin'" . . .

[maggrwaggr]

25. how do you know he did?

All I see going on are a lot of rumors and wild speculation.

[no name no slogan]

14. His staff is foregoing pay for 2 weeks

I don't know if he's running out of money, but he does have a pretty high burn rate and high overhead, too.

Campaigning is not cheap; however, you can't win elections with money alone. If that were possible, Steve Forbes would have been president.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. CNN just reported pay cuts for Dean's staff.

Maybe they are doing that because they have too much money. The funds are coming in so fast, they decided to cut the staff's pay.

[rucky]

16. I smell mismanagement

Trippi leaving and then this news.

I hope I'm wrong. I trusted Dean enough to throw some bucks his way, now I'm wondering where it went.

[Logansquare]

17. Another poster said they spent 10 M in Iowa

I would call that mismanagement. If Trippi was responsible for it, then I'm glad he's out.

[jenk]

18. any idea how much they spent in NH then?

[Lexingtonian]

19. a local TV broadcaster said last night

that the Dean campaign had spent twice as much as the Kerry folks in New Hampshire. I'd guesstimate the $5-$10 million range.

[jenk]

22. Dean could've spent $1.52 and won 2nd

I wonder how many millions between the yaaargh and the primary was wasted making a futile push for 1st

[no name no slogan]

27. I heard it was closer to $17m in Iowa

He had approx 200 paid staffers in IA. DK had ten. I don't know the numbers for the others. $17mil does sound a bit steep-- so does $10mil for that matter.

It may be connected to Trippi-- I could see that there may be a connection there, but we won't know until all is said and done.

[Cassandra]

20. At least it got spent on Americans

so far, only the repukes outsource their phone banks.

[progressivebydesign]

21. We're quoting WSJ and Novak now?

Hey. I just read two threads, that offer no proof, that say Dean is running out of money. Both of the sources were questionable. Novak and WSJ? THose are reliable sources now?? Pass-adena.

[jenk]

23. Drudge is claiming Dean spent 40 million in NH and Iowa combined

[maggrwaggr]

24. and we're all believing this because ........ .?

c'mon, Drudge ... WSJ .......

These aren't exactly reliable sources.

It's a propaganda war, after all.

I believe nothing I hear from the other side.

[Beaker]

26. yes. according to the NY times article about dumping Trippi-

...The shake-up comes at a perilous time for the Dean campaign. Only weeks ago, he was riding high in the polls and had amassed far more money than any other campaign. But this week, campaign fund-raisers said, the operation had only $4.5 million to $5 million on hand and was scrambling to collect more money.

After raising $41 million in 2003 — far more than any of his Democratic rivals — Dr. Dean spent so much on television and on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire that campaign officials said they were only confident of having enough money to compete through next week.

Dr. Dean has asked his entire staff, about 500 people, to skip their paychecks for two weeks. And already, field organizers in Wisconsin, whose primary on Feb. 17 could be Dr. Dean's last stand, have been told not to expect paychecks next month.

The campaign has upended its advertising strategy. Dr. Dean, who last June was the first candidate to advertise, is now the only major candidate to be off the air right now, and his strategists said Wednesday night that they were in no hurry to return. They confirmed last weekend that they had gone dark in every state but New Hampshire so they could reassess Dr. Dean's electoral chances and then flood advertising in those states they believed he could win...

this does not bode well...