Dean may go on, but the campaign is effectively over...

[JCMach1]

with the NYT article and the 'apparent' mismanagement of the campaign by Joe Trippi...

A look at the polls for next week are also VERY discouraging.

The 40 million is mostly gone.

While I think Dean will continue, his campaign is de facto over...

He will win more delegates. And yes, I will vote for him in the primary. For me the reality is clear.

[LosinIt]

1. So you are going to let the media decide for you?

At this point Howard has more delegates than anyone. There have only been 77 or so delegates decided via primary so far. It takes over 2000 to win the nomination. Stop it with the nay-saying.

[JCMach1]

5. Absolutely not...

I am voting for him.

But tell me where he is going to win with only 5million over the next few weeks...

[Leilani]

2. Is he going to run in next week's primaries?

I have heard conflicting reports. Some say he may wait till Michigan.

[JCMach1]

10. He may appear to be competing, but he has limited money

for advertising.

That story may be an indication that they simply want to focus resources there.

[joshcryer]

3. 40 million gone already?

Source/

[JCMach1]

6. DU discussion about NYT article

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=220137

It looks like Dean may only have about 4-6million cash on hand.

[Tinoire]

26. Money does not have to be the end-all

Just keep on moving. More money will come in.

[buckeye1]

11. Dean.

He needs to release his records to refute this charge. How could he be corrupt?

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[jsw_81]

7. Next week, Dean will be 0-9

Where's he going to win? Oklahoma? It's over.

[Toucano]

9. What's it been, 2, maybe 3 weeks...

Since they were saying the same thing about Kerry?

Anything can happen. No one makes it to the nomination without taking at least one heavy knock. When will JK's come, I wonder.

[JCMach1]

12. You can bet it's coming the media has their hatchets out

Looks like CBS is already getting warmed-up.

[JVS]

18. Can't wait!

[ScreamingMeemie]

23. Now let's look at this...if Clinton had given up at this point...

hmmmmm.... Never underestimate the power of a voter. And I think many are doing that.

[Zomby Woof]

27. Clinton was never the frontrunner before Iowa/NH

Expectations for him had nowhere to go but up. That is why these analogies are tricky because history does NOT repeat itself. Each primary is like a fingerprint. But if we must draw an analogy, we will combine physics (momentum) with math (probability).

That is to say, Dean isn't technically out of it, but the odds are much harder when your momentum is slowing, and clearing the first hurdles did not meet expectations.

Clinton was never favored to win NH, and so his 2nd place finish exceeded expectations. Just 2 weeks ago, Dean was heavily favored to win NH. His failure to do so cost him major perception points as a viable candidate. Momentum in politics is a combination of perception and the "bandwagon" mentality. He is now perceived as faltering rather than progressing. That matters, as we shall see on February 3.

A Dean-Clinton analogy doesn't work in this case.

[Bake]

28. Plus, Dean is no Clinton!

The Big Dog was/is the single most gifted politician of this century. The Comeback Kid, for REAL. The damn punch-bag toy who kept popping back up. The man who took some body shots but who was still standing at the end of the 15th round! Dean is no Clinton.

Bake

[Zomby Woof]

29. so very true

I cannot for the life of me see Clinton having to resort to WWE theatrics to "pump up" his supporters. Clinton's rhetorical gifts allowed him to do that naturally and with dignity, with his considerable charm in tow.

[TexasPatriot]

31. Clinton is so amazing

and, though i like a lot of what all of our candidates are saying, none of them have Clintons real charm (Edwards has something special - but its got a little 'tryin to sell you somethin' to it, Clinton was smoother)

Really makes you appreciate how good Clinton really was.

[DemBones DemBones]

32. That is so true, Bake. Clinton is a great politician. Dean just isn't

anywhere near Clinton's level. You can listen to Clinton and know he's full of it but still admire his skill as a speaker/ politician. All of the Dems in the race (and the two who've dropped out, for that matter) can deliver a good speech, but the candidate who stands out as a speaker is John Edwards.

[JCMach1]

8. Tell me where he will win?

Then, tell me how it will happen given the campaign circumstances we know today?

Sorry, if I am being a realist.

It has nothing to do with how I feel about him.

[Tatiana]

13. The Feb. 3rd primaries are gonna be rough for him.

I think he'll do well in Delaware. I also think he has a shot at midwestern states like Missouri and Michigan. It may be why the campaign is going to focus its resources on Michigan more. He has a good shot at winning there.

[Leilani]

17. Wasn't he polling well

in New Mexico & Arizona? I know Clark was, but maybe Kerry will destroy all the ground work our candidates did previously.

Also, North Dakota?

[JCMach1]

34. WAS... the latest polls are not so kind

:(

[kerry-is-my-prez]

14. he's just being honest....

n/t

[TexasPatriot]

15. Salon says all $40m is gone

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/01/29/dean/index.html

"According to staffers, Dean held a meeting with campaign workers in which he announced that there was no money to pay staff at the beginning of February. He said that the campaign had $3 million in the bank, but that it had also racked up $3 million in debt that needed to be paid off. A senior aide confirmed the meeting, but not the numbers in question."

[genius]

21. I thought he was fiscally conservative. What happened?

Did he just spend it all thinking more would come in?

[juajen]

38. Simple

He couldn't be the hand-shaker and the accountant. He had to have been done in by Trippi, no matter what kind of face they put on it. Methinks he should have listened more to Al Gore. You supporters need to get behind him now more than ever. I don't want any dems to be fair-weather friends. Donate now, he needs it. DON'T BE A DESERTER. Leave that to *.

[Renew Deal]

16. Things brighten up after next week.

He will be better off in some of the states after Feb. 3. He will just have to withstand it.

[genius]

19. I hope so.

Look at his record and you'll see how lucky we are.

[rumguy]

20. Do any Dean supporters feel swindled? I mean, what the hell happened

to that $40 million? Was it all spent on tv ads and orange hats?

[TexasPatriot]

22. Those orange hats are expensive

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=3657740833&category=39721

[Jerseycoa]

24. Did they always do ebay?

Or is this new?

[Woodstock]

25. Wow!

I'm lousy handling money myself, but I figured they'd have someone who was good with it. Why the heck did they spend it all at once? How do you go from the most money to this?

My take is, even if he goes down, we changed politics - they did away with the top down hierarchy, and I don't think people will go back to business as usual without a fight. Also, Dean being so outspoken challenged the others to crank up the criticism of Bush.

I gave a lot of money, but it wasn't a total waste (though I wish now I'd waited and blown it all on the general election.) Wish it had been handled better, though.

[JCMach1]

36. We changed the position and rhetoric of the party...

but ultimately will our nominee sell out to the powers that be in this country?

That's the question...

It's one thing to talk the talk...

[bearfartinthewoods]

39. kerry is the man...haven't you been told?

it's all better now.....business as usual. </sarcasm>

[isbister]

33. He's been spending like a

drunken republican, that's what happened

[foo_bar]

30. it's now official

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=220670

Clark said, "You gotta give `em stealth kisses!"

[copithorne]

35. Maybe this isn't the time

But, you know, our country is in real danger. I feel like my three year old son's future is on the line. All our futures are on the line.

And for me, personally, I think it is important to have a candidate who can repudiate this war and win the nomination and beat George Bush.

So, if you can find it in your heart to place your love of your country ahead of your loyalty to a candidate, we really need your help and your vote in the Clark campaign.

Give it some thought. Thanks for your patriotism either way.

[JCMach1]

37. I really considered Clark in the beginning... his beliefs are probably

the CLOSEST to my own of any candidate.

Then I saw the video of him praising Bush and his team which happened at the same chronological time I was working my arse off to fight back against that particular crew. I can't get that image of Clark out of my head.

If General Clark wins the nomination, I will be first in line to stand up and salute. Absolutely, Clark could beat Bush... But so could Edwards... so could Kerry... so could Dean.

I still intend to vote for Dean in the Florida primary if he is still in. If not, my vote would go to Kucinich.

HOWEVER, I would not abandon the party EVEN IF Lieberman were nominated. I have met Lieberman personally and he is a nice guy. If we are talking nice and personality... Edwards beats them all. He is a great person. It may not be his time, but he WILL be President some day.

Dean will stay in the race until at least next week, but the writing is on the wall.

One note about Kerry... In a typical nomination process, opposition to frontrunners will typically coalesce around one figure.

Right now, that vote is being cut into thirds. Kerry may come out of next week with a clean sweep and by scoring only 25% of the vote.

If Clark fails this week (the reality is once again) that his race is also effectively over.