The view from New Hampshire - John Kerry

[DancingBear]

OK – I’ll say it now and get it over with - watching John Kerry try to emote is like watching a cadaver try to roll over.

I saw John Kerry in Jaffrey, very late in the primary battle. At the time I saw him, he was rapidly expanding his lead, and most folks thought he would win it going away. For that reason, I think, the venue was not full, and there were the conspicuous vacant seats on the “wings” on each side of the stage, Normally, campaign workers are asked to sit there, because the view is not good and it is assumed they have seen the candidate many times before. More importantly, though, is the fact that C-Span cameras pick up the empty seats when doing wide shots of the candidate on stage, and that ain’t good. Kerry kept the crowd waiting until they were full – at one time his people came out and said they would not bring him out until those seats were occupied. Not a good way to win the PR battle.

His speech was what I expected, and the reaction was polite, but somewhat muted. From talking to others (including an ABC news guy whom I didn’t recognize), I gathered that this was pretty common. Kerry does not seem to inspire rabid zeal, but he sure seems to inspire voting for him, and that is what matters. There were several undecideds in the audience, and those I talked to almost always had the same rationale for thinking about voting for him – they believed he could beat Bush.

I was fascinated by the rapport that Kerry has built with veterans – he is seen, it seems to me, as one of them, even to this day. Not just Vietnam vets, either – his support spans many conflicts. I asked a Korean War vet who I was seated next to why Kerry, and not Clark. The response was telling – Kerry, the man said, was “regular Army.” A grunt, if you will. Clark was a General, and this vet couldn’t seem to connect with the top brass. It didn’t matter to him that Clark was of course a regular guy when he started his career – it was what he turned into that matters. The more I thought about it, the more I began to realize that Kerry has the same ability that Bush does. Bush can make people believe that a Connecticut blueblood is really a good ‘ol Texan, and Kerry can make people believe a career politician with 300 million bucks is still that guy in the Mekong Delta. That is a great recipe for winning an election.

Kerry won in NH by being the safe alternative, by regaining viability (thank you Iowa) and by following the path his team has formulated for him. They are, without question, some of the most brilliant folks out there right now – everything they touch turns to votes. If he wins SC and Missouri, and (most importantly) the media leaves him alone, he will win the nomination in a walk. If he gets battered a bit on IWR and Medicare (despite protests to the contrary, he hasn’t even been TOUCHED on these yet), things will change. If the south embraces him - he’s good. If he gets “Ted Kennedy-ized” – he isn’t. The dynamic of the half of the country below the M/D line is still to be observed, and contrary to others on this board I believe the south will dictate what happens. How will they respond to his “I can win without the south” sentiments?

Right now, though, he’s on a roll. NH bought the Kerry package whole hog, and who would have thought that eight weeks ago. Endorsements are coming, volunteers are coming, and money is coming. Looks pretty good from where I sit.

[gWbush is Mabus]

1. Kerry has NO PASSION

we NEED Dean to beat Bush!!!!!!!!!

[THUNDER HANDS]

6. boredom is Kerry's secret weapon

He lulls you into a false sense of security, then WAMMO, before you know if you're walking in a zombie-like trance into the voting booth and pulling that lever for the Senator.

:D

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. I think you're right

even more than you thought so. He is the guy you have to think of reasons to NOT vote for. Auto pilot tells you to do it.

[JohnKleeb]

10. Ive seen both him and Dean speak

Its a difference of styles, none is better or worse than the other. Kerry IMO has some nice punchlines IMO too, he really rallies the crowd with bring it on. If you see his victory speech in New Hampshire you will see that he can do great with a crowd, and he looked very good up there, I swear lol he looked like Kennedy or something except taller. Good guy he is, Ive liked him for a while, and in fact when I was gonna be on the model UN last year at school which I opted out of because it was bo-ring, I would have had Senator Kerry's role on intel committee I believe it was or something like it.

[JI7]

2. he IS still the mekong delta guy and the man of priveledge

the man that went to vietnam was the man who acknowledges he grew up with priveledge. difference between kerry and bush is that kerry doesn't try to claim he is something he isn't. he doesn't claim to have grown up just like some regular guy as bush does. when in reality bush got by with his name and money. bush would be in prison if not for name and money. all the while bush rips off those who he tries to act like he is part of. kerry on the other hand works to defend them. he supports middle class tax cuts,holding corporations accountable, he worked against environmental racism, supported gay rights, women's rights, veterans rights, etc. even after the vietnam war was over he continued to fight for better relations to help the americans who served or family of those who died there and the vietnamese people.

[DancingBear]

3. Very good points, JI7

re: the veterans connection. That is quite true w/regard to going to Vietnam when he could have easily avoided it with a phone call to the right people. I am sure this is a main reason why the vet "bond" is so strong.


I would ask, however, if Kerry is seen by most voters are supporting middle class tax cuts, gay rights, etc. I didn't associate him with these things prior to the primary process, and I'm wondering if he has been late to the party with regards to these issues, and others. Not meaning to be snide here - I really do not know the answer, and if you have info I'd like to see it, as JK is my #2 guy.

[JI7]

7. no, he has been for it for years

they tried to get this passed under clinton but the gop controlled congress would not pass any without including welfare for large corporations. he supported gay rights in the 80's when reagan was president. he voted against defense of marriage act which even paul wellstone voted for. (wellstone later regretted it saying it had to do with reelection which was true as the gop brought it up just at the time for that reason, but he was sorry and it bothered him to have voted the way he did). kerry marched for women's rights. the thing is he doesn't try to be someone he isn't. so when he connects with someone it's something real as with the veterans. he also has a good understanding of things so when he speaks to people about it even if it doesn't relate to him personally such as financial struggle he LISTENS to them and gives them specific answers. a good example was with family farms and the agricultural department. if you remember, just days before the iowa caucus a quote was released by kerry saying to cut the agricultural department. dean and gephardt tried to use it against him, but the people of iowa understood what kerry had meant. they understood that money went to waste, especially large businesses and did not benefit small family farms which were hurting. this showed kerry knew their problems even without personal experience.

[ant]

4. look at WHY he's winning

Look at the polls that came out of NH. Those who voted based on issues and vision voted for Dean. Those who voted based on electability voted for Kerry.

Which of those two trends translates well into the general election? Why will people who DO NOT hate Bush and who DO NOT want to just vote against him vote FOR Kerry? Kerry can't even move people in his own party unless he appeals to their fear of/hatred for Bush! That's just sad.

He's gotten where he is because people think he's the best chance to beat Bush, and that trait won't be useful in the general election. I'm really worried that we are fucking ourselved big time by choosing Kerry as our nominee.

[JohnKleeb]

8. We havent chosen Kerry yet

Also Kerry was tied with Dean with voters who voting on issues, and he even won with those angry at the adminstration and those strongly opposed to the war. Kerry can be the candiate of a wide range of people according to my results. Despite Dean's more conservative views on guns, Kerry even beat Dean in gun owning households.

[mikehiggins]

12. Worrying is good. Even paranoids can have enemies.

Who votes in primaries and caucuses? The average Joe-Sixpack voter from down the block? Nah, self-identified partisans who take an active interest in what's going on.

A minority of a minority.

So a minority of that minority have voted for John Kerry and a minority of that smaller minority have voted FOR John Kerry, as opposed to AGAINST George Bush.

The rest of us need a candidate that can go out into the nation and make a case why people should vote FOR our party and AGAINST a seated incumbent during a <<perceived>> war against terrorism. We have to have a candidate that doesn't just replace a Beltway politician.

WHY should anyone vote for just another Democratic candidate?

And a Democratic liberal from Taxachusetts?

What can you folks be thinking? How nice another four years of Bush will be? Kerry cribbed at least one line correctly. This is the most undemocratic and reckless administrations this nation has seen since anyone started keeping records.

But, Bush is STILL our President and that carries a tremendous weight with the general public. We aren't going to beat him with another ho,hum, run-of-the-mill, same old same old Democratic liberal from the Northeast. It isn't going to happen.

Those are icebergs ahead Captain; you have to change course.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. Kerry is a mature, responsible, informed, and passionate man.

A lot of people see that. He is connecting with a lot of people.

[sandnsea]

11. It's the guts, "stupid"

The guts in Vietnam, the guts in his fights since Vietnam, his willingness to stand by what he believes and not abandon anybody. I would guess Wes Clark has guts too, I just don't see it in him. We need somebody with guts to beat Bush, that's what people are voting for.

As to the issues, people just haven't paid attention to his views on the issues. If they did, they'd know his plans are better than Dean's or Clark's and he'd win there too.

[Carolina]

13. I totally

agree.

What's really troublesome is why everyday working stiffs or Joe sixpacks or even other vets don't identify with Clark's American dream story: very humble roots, self made, moved up the ladder the hard way (he earned his stars dammit).

Nothing has been handed to this guy. He's everyman or in his vision of America, everyman's potential. Powerful stuff.

Same holds true for John Edwards: humble roots, first in family to attend college ...

Both resonate, both don't have to try so hard to emote. In his efforts to connect, Kerry sometimes reminds me of Gore. It's painful and I cringe. If he is the nominee, I'll support him but we can and must do better if we are to defeat Bush.

CLARK-EDWARDS!