Latest SC poll results

[SCantiGOP]

Polls are being taken on Wed, Thurs and Friday of this week. Here are the results of the Wednesday poll. Kerry has the endorsements of Sen. Hollings and Cong. Clyburn (SC's only black Congressman), while Edwards has the 'hometown' advantage since he was born in SC. Clark's campaign has never seemed to take off; Dean is a lost cause; and SC will most likely be Lieberman's last stand. Stay tuned-- the front runner is still Undecided. There's a link if you want to get the later polls by email.

Poll Results for Wednesday January 28, 2004
John Edwards 26%
John Kerry 16%
Wesley Clark 8%
Al Sharpton 7%
Howard Dean 5%
Joe Lieberman 4%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 33%

source: The SCIndex is a free information service provided by Campaign Systems, Crantford & Associates, and the Southern Political Information Network (SPIN). If you know of someone who would like to receive the SCIndex, have them send a blank email with "SCIndex" in the subject line to [e-mail].

[ALago1]

1. Interesting

Does anyone know the pre-NH numbers?

[cjbuchanan]

15. Pre-NH numbers

SurveyUSA. 1/24-26. MoE 3.9%.

Edwards 32
Clark 17
Dean 16
Kerry 13
Sharpton 10

American Research Group. 1/23-24. MoE 4%. (December results)

Edwards 21 (11)
Kerry 17 (2)
Sharpton 15 (12)
Clark 14 (12)
Dean 9 (16)

[yellowcanine]

31. Looks as if Kerry is moving up

and Clark and Dean are nose diving. Edwards also sagging. OTOH, undecided is doing quite well.

[ALago1]

35. Thanks a lot! n/t

[SlavesandBulldozers]

2. I know SC's got a strong Sharpton following

but good lord Sharpton over Dean?

because of the IA speech? We're in trouble.

[leyton]

11. It's this:

a lot of people in SC are voting for Sharpton for the same reason that Sharpton is running: for him (and ostensibly the African American community, I guess) to have a voice in the Democratic party.

[SCantiGOP]

24. exactly, leyton

As of last week, Sharpton, who seems to be in SC at least every other day, changed his approach from "I can win the nomination" to "If enough people vote for me I can carry our agenda to the convention with the clout to get things done." Even so, most people don't expect him to do any better than 10%; almost all of the prominent black SC politicos have declined to endorse Sharpton.

[sallyseven]

19. I don't think that it

was only the Iowa speech. Dean started to lose steam a week or two before the speech. He has to work very hard to overcome other perceptions that people have of him. Maybe the new guy will help.

[jmaier]

3. It's a must win for Edwards

I sincerely hope that he can hold off a Kerry charge in SC. We need to keep this primary race open for awhile -- it keeps strong, anti-Bush messages in the public view.

[zulchzulu]

4. Undecided is 33%...what's the MOE, bro? n/t

[jsw_81]

5. Good for Edwards

He might actually win his native state. But he's going to crash and burn in New York, California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Washington, and Massachusetts. Those primaries -- and the nomination -- belong to Kerry.

[montanacowboy]

7. Kerry will not win in Washington State

or Michigan for that matter

[jsw_81]

9. Governor Granholm of Michigan has endorsed Kerry

And several prominent Democrats, including Congressman Adam Smith have endorsed Kerry in Washington, where I happen to live.

[AP]

20. I think her husband's on Kerry's staff or has done fundraisers

or something like that. It doesn't seem like Granholm really had an option here.

[jsw_81]

23. So you think Mr. Granholm makes the decisions in that household

I doubt that.

[AP]

33. Dont' blame me. There were already stories in the press in MI

saying that she'll probably go with Kerry because of husband's connections which preceed the primary season.

They said that if she didn't endorse anyone it would be seen as a slight on Kerry.

I've been paying close attention to Granholm because I liker her. Months ago I resigned myself to this. I'm sure many people in Michigan will perceive it similarly.

[mydawgmax]

30. But the party is behind Dean

I say this as a washington Kerry supporter, that its pretty well known that most of the party apperatus in the state is behind Dean and that he is going to do well in the caucus because of this organizational strength. Unlike Iowa, Washington caucuses do not engage that many people outside of party activists.

[jsw_81]

34. We'll see

Dean's "formidable" grass-roots organization didn't do much in Iowa or New Hampshire, and if he gets shut out on February 3, there probably won't even be a Kerry/Dean contest in Washington because Dean will be out of the race.

[mydawgmax]

38. I hope you are right.

I hope you are right and we'll see a repeat of Iowa, I know I'll do my part, but it seems that the local party organization, not the "net" roots, is so unified behind Dean. Maybe they got behind Dean when he seemed inevitible and are wavering, but I think if Dean dosent do very very well in Washington it would really be an upset.

[NWHarkness]

39. Two other factors in Michigan

While Granholm's endorsement of Kerry is important, I think there are two biggest factors that are still open questions.

Will Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick endorse a candidate? If he does, you aren't just talking about giving an opinion that might persuade voters, but putting into action a political machine that can probably swing a Dem caucus at least 10 points in whatever direction he wants ti to go.

And what are the industrial unions going to do? While the UAW has not made an endorsement, the individual locals are free to do so. Some of the big locals, in Dearborn, Warren, Flint, etc., can put hundreds of caucus goers in someone's corner.

[shawmut]

12. why not?

he seems to be doing very well in MI based on what we're hearing from there

[genius]

13. Yes he will. They are waking up.

Dean's loss is about people waking up and saying this guy only agreed with us on one out of hundreds of issues. Even Lieberman's more liberal.

[THUNDER HANDS]

14. uh...have you checked out Kerry's numbers in Michigan?

I read somewhere (might have been here) that Kerry was polling in the 30's in Michigan and no other candidate was in double digits.

[GiovanniC]

I Live In Michigan

And most people aren't used to our caucus being this early. So they're not really paying attention. EPIC did a poll right after the Iowa caucus (think: while Kerry's name was all over the news) and I think he got a huge spike just on name recognition.

If Dean and/or Clark (who are both very popular here in MI) do well in the February 3 states, then it's very much up for grabs.

And while I adore Gov. Granholm, her endorsement isn't likely to mean a whole lot.

[HFishbine]

6. How about sample size, margin of error and polling dates? (nt)

[shawmut]

8. i'm interested to see

how much of a bump Kerry gets from his NH win and the Clyburn endorsment.

[quinnox]

10. Good for Edwards

I am a Kerry guy, but I like Edwards quite a bit too. I would be happy with either as the nominee.

It is better if Kerry doesn't wrap this up too soon, because the more battle there is the stronger the nominee will be. The more battle tested, the better.

[genius]

17. I'm pulling for Edwards in SC. I want him to remain strong.

Of course I'm voting for Dennis but in another state.

[quinnox]

26. I agree

n.t

[Capn Sunshine]

28. Yes, it's important for the co-author of the Patriot Act to remain strong

that reassures the war machine they will be able to continue to devour our young. Currently , they average 2.8 kids per day. I'm surethey want THAT number up.

Isn't that what electability is all about these days?

[shawmut]

18. I'm a Kerry guy too

and I have to agree with you. While I'd love to see him roll through all the states next week with big wins part of me wants to see him have to fight it out longer. and i also like Edwards.

[quinnox]

25. Yea, me too

A Kerry Edwards contest would be a great thing.

[AP]

16. Edwards got almost half of undecideds at T minus 3 days in

NH. If he repeats that in SC, that's almost 40%. That would be good.

It looks like Clark lost serious mo' in NH (which I called yesterday and this morning, to the great resistance of Clark supporters). It looks like Kerry got some of Clark's voters.

[Freddie Stubbs]

21. Clyburn is endorsing Kerry today

So that would have had no effect on this poll.

[Amager]

22. Edwards is still looking good!

This is a must win for Edwards, and I'm rooting for him. That's a big undecided nummber too.

[Capn Sunshine]

29. Yes, he IS awfully cute

That smile works wonders on the DC matrons at the fundraisers.

[Lex]

27. The undecideds will not break for Kerry

at the last minute, imho. They'll break Edwards way--like Iowa, only in a bigger way. I think Edwards will take most all the undecideds, maybe some will break toward Clark. JMHO.

[yellowcanine]

36. I disagree - it looks like many undecideds came from Dean and Clark

and also some from Edwards. Not so likely to go back. Kerry as frontrunner is likely to get many of them if he has a good week - and he is having a good week, picking up some key SC endorsements.

[Lex]

37. I suppose it could happen

I just think at the last second, they'll pull the lever for their homestate guy.

If they haven't made up their minds yet ON THE ISSUES, then a quasi-issue like "he's a native born son" will tip them over to Edwards in the final moments.

This is my rank speculation, and that and $3.50 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

[redqueen]

32. 33% undecided!

Yep, that's a poll that says a lot.