What does Edwards have to do to survive 2/3?

[dolstein]

If he doesn't win South Carolina, he's definitely finished. But I think he'll need to win South Carolina, Missouri and Oklahoma for the press to begin treating him like a credible alternative to Kerry. Although I like Clark, I like Edwards even more, so I'm hoping that Clark's support collapses in these three states. Personally, I wish Clark and Edwards would tag team Kerry, with Clark focusing on North Dakota, Arizona and New Mexico, and Edwards focusing on Missouri, Oklahom and South Carolina. Kerry definitely needs to be taken down a notch for either Clark or Edwards to have a real shot.

[leyton]

1. I agree with your take.

If he does not win two of the Feb 3 states, and perform well in the rest, I don't think he's got much of a chance left, unless the other states are all evenly divided among the candidates.

So, say, a win in SC and Oklahoma plus a second-place finish in Missouri would be great for him, assuming he's competitive (top three) in the rest of the states.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. I think he'll win SC and OK

JK will take the rest.

[elsiesummers]

Then come TN and VA

Edwards can do well there too.

The press will keep the horse race aspect of this going for a while so if he wins anything more than SC he'll get coverage, IMO.

I think they will want to stick a stake in the heart of the Dean campaign after 2/3. That will be a major story line.

[AP]

3. A first and two seconds in AZ-SC-OK will keep him alive.

in the other four, probably at least three seconds.

If Kerry wins 4-7 states, it'll be hard for anyone else to win. if Kerry wins 3, it'll be tough, but not impossible.

[Amager]

4. For sure Edwards has to win S.C., that is a must

Second and third might be enough for the others for Feb 3rd, I'm not sure.

[Bombtrack]

5. I think Kerry, Edwards, and Clark will all win 2 states

Edwards - SC and OK
Kerry - MO and DE
Clark - AZ and NM

ND is anyones guess

I think they will all get around the same amount of delagates, about 30 percent each, with Dean getting almost none

[spooky3]

8. that would make it very interesting

I don't think JE HAS to win SC. He just has to win it if he can't win any of the other states on Feb. 3. In other words, if he won in at least one state and had strong 2nds in several more, it doesn't matter whether SC is one of them.

HOWEVER, I think his chances are best in SC.

[yellowcanine]

6. He has to stop the bleeding in SC

He dropped about 6 points there the first day after NH, Kerry could very well pass him if current trends continue.

[theboss]

7. Two wins and a strong showing elsewhere

I understand the logic behind "turning it into a two-man race." That's everyone's strategy. But just surviving is not enough. Clark, Dean, or Edwards needs to win something at some point. If we reach the point where Kerry has something like 9 easy wins and a second-place showing, it's over.