The Death Of The Doctor
Doug Ireland
John Kerry’s New Hampshire win wasn’t just a victory—with a 13-point margin over Howard Dean, he scored a blowout. And a close read of the results confirms the lesson of Iowa: Dean is inevitably doomed.
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And Michigan, with its female governor and its legions of aging industrial union members, is stuffed with Catholics and evangelical Protestants who carry union cards. Whatever small cushion Dean might have from the early voting there won’t be enough to overwhelm the Kerry demographics.
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Edwards is also weak on the ground in South Carolina, where—as of a week ago—he had only 7 staffers, compared to Kerry’s 40. Edwards is so short of cash that his plan to hire 20 Dick Gephardt field staffers from Iowa fell through because he had no money to pay them. And his disappointing fourth-place showing in New Hampshire is not enough to have contributors whipping out their checkbooks for Edwards.
Given all this, it’s none too soon for progressives to begin asking: what will Dean do with the movement he has crystallized?
Does he have the will, desire, and vision to transform his legions of enthusiastic Deaniacs into a permanent, on-the-ground electoral instrument to "take back" the Democratic Party in future contests? If he doesn’t, can the Dean blogosphere, on its own, consciously coagulate itself into an institutionalized grassroots electoral fighting force capable of contesting future primaries against the moneyed, handpicked candidates of the party’s establishment? Will Dean, when he inevitably loses, simply turn over his extensive computer lists to the national Democrats, in the hopes of some future reward from the party? Or will Dean fall victim to the kind of angry pique on display in his "I Have a Scream" speech, lock his lists in a closet, and go home and sulk—and let his movement evaporate, as so many other insurgent candidates, from Jerry Brown to Jesse Jackson to Ralph Nader, have done before him?
The answer to those questions will be the ultimate test of Howard Dean’s true character.
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