Larry Sabato's Crystal ball and the 2004 election.

[underpants]

Sorry this is from Newsmax so I included a link to Sabato's newsletter below. http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2004/1/28/103210.shtml

The University of Virginia's Larry Sabato, one of the nation's most potent political prognosticators, says that hate is the common denominator driving the Democrats this year and that the Bush campaign must pay attention or suffer.


"In 2004 however, Democrats are clearly going with their heads not their hearts (even as we approach the Feast of Saint Valentine). Rightly or wrongly, the activists voting in the early contests are often passing over their first choice and selecting the candidate they believe can win in November. Thus, the Democrats of 2004 may accomplish a feat that eluded the Democrats of 1972 and the Republicans of 1996," Sabato writes today in his Crystal Ball newsletter.

"On the other hand, that assumes that Democrats are actually picking the most electable candidate. For all of his attractive advantages, John Kerry is still a liberal Democrat from Massachusetts and Ted Kennedy's colleague in the U.S. Senate, with much the same voting record as Teddy. It is difficult to imagine Kerry carrying any Southern state, nor winning most of the Border states or Rocky Mountain states. His victory, if it is to come, must be fashioned almost precisely on the no-margin-for-error Gore 2000 model - with perhaps a vice presidential nominee putting a marginal Bush state or two in play.

"Still, this is turning into a rough and tumble few months for President Bush. The Democrats have dominated the news media – every channel, every hour, with the exception of the State of the Union address. ... he Democrats' unity of opposition to Bush on every issue has kept the campaign a symphony rather than a cacophony, building toward a crescendo of anti-Bush fervor. The Democrats are pumped. The Bush White House appears blissfully ignorant of that reality, at least early in the campaign season."






http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[JuniorPlankton]

1. Lets hope it will be too late when they realize what's going on.

Keep the ignorance alive.
It was always the trademark of this administration.
Why should it change now?

[isbister]

2. I watched bush in New Hampshire yesterday

and I thought his father was out of touch with...reality, WOW!

[dusty64]

3. I love the "hate" angle

that the rightwingers are pushing. All opposition to our regime and their insane agenda is "unpatriotic" and "hateful".

[underpants]

6. That is cut and paste Republican politics

whatever most aptly describes them is attributed to the Dems.

They want everyone to forget about the unbridled hatred and wasteful public money spent on hating anything and everything Clinton.

[jsw_81]

8. I know

It's especially galling when you consider the real hatred they threw at President Clinton for eight years. They accused him of: Murder, rape, treason, theft, accused his wife of having lesbian affairs etc.

Yet when we disagree with unelected "president" Bush on something like taxes, then suddenly we're unpatriotic commie pinko leftists.

[unblock]

4. "sabato ... says that hate is the common denominator"

funny, i can't find sabato using the word hate anywhere.

he only says that dems seem to be focused on nominating someone electable. oh, i guess wanting to win means hating, at least when democrats do it.

[underpants]

5. Will "hatred" (of Nixon) do? Apparently it will for Newsmax

"But there is something new. In 1972 Democrats' hatred of Richard Nixon was not enough to produce a strong nominee against him. In fact, Democrats were so unconcerned about electability that they chose perhaps the weakest possible candidate - George McGovern, who lost in a November landslide. Likewise, in 1996 the Republicans' powerful desire to beat Bill Clinton did not yield a potent nominee. ...


That is why I offered the link to his actual newsletter. Including the introductory paragraph is a habit of mine, sorry. I should have only posted actual quotes.

[KoKo]

7. Notice how Sabato has been elevated through the years to the Great Prophet

He's always mentioned in any political article and is shown regularly when the pundits ask: "The Experts."

This Democratic "hate" has been the "meme (?) of the Repugs because they turn "their awful hate for Clinton personally around and project it on the Democrats about Bush. There must be a psychological term for that...is it "Projection?" Projecting your flaws and failures onto another person so you don't have to face them. (I think I got that from Psych. 101, but it might apply to them).

At some point, I hope that average Americans will start to get tired of the same old names feeding them what they are supposed to "think." Sabato is one I would like not to hear from again even though he often plays in the middle in his opinions just so he appears "fair and balanced."

I don't think all Democrats hate Bush. I think those of us here who really know what he's all about may be close to that but most Dems aren't even upset about "Selection 2000," or Iraq Invasion. They might have a sense that somethings gone wrong and things need to change, but they don't "hate."

[Eurobabe]

10. Larry Sabato is a jerk

I am ashamed that he is in my backyard, and from my alma mater. But for once he might be right, I chant daily that we kick the ass of Bu$h in November.

[StClone]

9. I don't hate Bush

I hate his policies nd rich friends.

I think George would be great fun drunk, high or whoring.