Some history to ponder for those who say "Dean can't win"

[xray s]

People have forgotten how Ronald Reagan was feared as a sure loser by many in his own party in 1980. Check out this analysis of the election as it stood in April of 2000. (The Reagan comments are near the bottom of the article)

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/analysis/back.time/9604/03/index.shtml

...At the same time, the Yankelovich survey showed Reagan has gained on Carter in public support. The latest poll found (Carter) ahead by only six percentage points, down sharply from his 32-point margin in January, and back to about where he was when the Iran hostage crisis began. Even former President Gerald Ford has changed his mind about Reagan's chances against Carter in November. For weeks Ford has been saying that Reagan could not win. But last week Ford, who remains open to a draft if the convention deadlocks, predicted that Reagan, "with the full support of all the Republican candidates, could defeat President Carter."

Think about that. Ford was saying Reagan couldn't win. That would be like Clinton saying Dean couldn't win. And yet Reagan won. In a landslide.

Here's hoping Dean (if he wins the nomination) is our Ronald Reagan. And here is hoping the Republicans underestimate him the way Democrats underestimated Reagan.

[wyldwolf]

1. You're right, but...

...by election time, the public had largely turned against Carter.

We have to make sure the same fate befalls Bush.

[ochazuke]

2. Right. It was Carter's loss more than Regan's win

1980 was a vote against Carter and the Democrats -- the worst defeat for our side until 1994.

Bush doesn't seem headed for such a judgement at this time. He may get reelected before his policies totally ruin the country.

[TexasPatriot]

3. it's not that Dean cant win

it's that he's not as likely to win as some others...

its like driving into a town filled with Tigers with Shermans... wouldnt we all be better off in better tanks? (positive waves or no)

;)

[floridaguy]

6. Doesn't everyone want the Democratic candidate with the best chance?

Pretty much every day we hear something that Howard Dean said or did, which he has to retract, reformulate, or otherwise apologize for wiithout really apologizing.

If Democrats are truly most concerned with nominating the candidate with the best chance to beat Bush, why are they in such a hurry to nominate Dean?

Wesley Clark is clearly the candidate who will have a better chance to beat George Bush - period.

I, for one, am not willing to risk four more years by supporting the second best.

[w13rd0]

7. Saying it over and over...

...doesn't make it true. Do you have any empirical evidence to back up what should be "clearly" apparent?

[Scoopie]

10. Yeah

I do.
Dean absolutely flip-flops on every issue... but YOU fail to see that.
The problem is not presenting it to you, it's getting you to understand.

[UrbScotty]

19. Name ONE issue on which Dean flip-flopped

Now, I haven't seen Clark flip-flop yet, where has Dean?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

21. Dean flip-flops

1. North Korea

In January, Dean said on CBS' Face the Nation that he approved of Bush's policy towards North Korea and agreed with the president that the approach will be successful.

"I concur with most of the president's policy on North Korea," Dean said, to the surprise of many Democrats and supporters who had criticized Bush's approach. "We have substantial differences on Iraq, but I like the idea and I believe in the idea of multilaterals. And the president's pursuing a policy in cooperation with the Chinese, the Russians, the South Koreans and the Japanese, which we ought to see bear fruition."

Just one month later, Dean flip-flopped without explanation, describing Bush's North Korea policy as "incoherent, inconsistent and dangerously disengaged."

2. Social Security retirement age

At a candidate forum hosted by the AFL-CIO in August, Dean faced criticism from Kucinich for considering moving the Social Security retirement age. Dean responded forcefully that he wanted to "tell everybody that I have never favored Social Security retirement at the age of 70, nor do I favor one of 68."

In 1995, Dean praised then-Sen. Bob Packwood (R-Ore.) for recommending changing the retirement age to 70. At the time, Dean said, "I believe that Sen. Packwood is on exactly the right track." A month later, Dean said "moving the retirement age to 70" was a way to help reduce the deficit and balance the budget.

Far more recently, in June 2003, Dean said on Meet the Press, "I would also entertain taking the retirement age up to 68."

3. Public Financing and Campaign Spending Limits

In March, Dean promised to raise a fuss if any of the other candidates decided to abandon spending limits and skip public financing.

"It will be a huge issue," Dean said in March. "I think most Democrats believe in campaign finance reform.... always been committed to this. Campaign finance reform is just something I believe in." As recently as June 7, Dean wrote to the Federal Election Commission that he will abide by spending limits in the primaries.

Last month, Dean said his campaign was "exploring" the possibility of opting out of the public financing system because of his success in raising money and his desire to spend more in the primaries than his opponents. He said he "didn't remember" making earlier promises to the contrary and said his campaign was free to "change our mind."

(Actually, Dean's flip-flopped on this issue twice. In addition to the recent conversion as a presidential candidate, Dean also did a reverse on spending limits while governor of Vermont. In 1997, Dean helped create a system whereby statewide candidates would agree to a spending cap and participate in public financing. At the time, Dean vowed that the bill would "change the way campaigns are run" in Vermont. When it came time for Dean to run for re-election in 2000 under the campaign finance system he helped create, Dean rejected public financing and exceeded the spending cap by 300 percent.)

4. U.S. trade standards

In August, Dean told the Washington Post that China and other countries could get trade deals with the United States only if they adopted "the same labor laws and labor standards and environmental standards" as the United States. When a reporter from Slate asked if he meant just general "standards" or "American standards," Dean insisted that he would demand that other countries adopt the exact same labor, environmental, health, and safety standards as the United States.

Last week in the DNC debate in Albuquerque, Dean shifted gears and said he doesn't believe that our trading partners have to adopt "American labor standards," saying that international standards would work.

5. U.S. policy on the Cuban trade embargo

Dean, up until fairly recently, was one of many politicians from both parties open to easing trade restrictions with Castro's Cuba. He admitted as much in response to a question from a reporter last month, saying, "If you would have asked me six months ago, I would have said we should begin to ease the embargo in return for human-rights concessions."

According to an Aug. 26 article in the Miami Herald, Dean has "shifted his views" on Cuban trade now that he has "surged to the top of the race" for the Dem nomination. Dean said he believes the U.S. can't ease Cuban embargo restrictions "right now" because "Castro has just locked up a huge number of human-rights activists and put them in prison and show trials."

6. "Regime change" in Iraq

In March, before the U.S. invaded Iraq, Dean sounded a lot like Bush on the possible war, suggesting that disarming Saddam Hussein, with or without the United Nations, should be America's priority.

According to an interview with Salon's Jake Tapper, when Dean was asked to clarify his Iraq position, Dean said that Saddam must be disarmed, but with a multilateral force under the auspices of the United Nations. If the U.N. in the end chooses not to enforce its own resolutions, then the U.S. should give Saddam 30 to 60 days to disarm, and if he doesn't, unilateral action is a regrettable, but unavoidable, choice.

When the U.N. chose not to enforce its resolutions, Bush followed Dean's position and launched a unilateral action against Iraq.

Since then, Dean has held himself out as someone who has opposed the war all along.

7. Death penalty

In 1992, Dean said, "I don't support the death penalty for two reasons. One, you might have the wrong guy, and two, the state is like a parent. Parents who smoke cigarettes can't really tell their children not to smoke and be taken seriously. If a state tells you not to murder people, a state shouldn't be in the business of taking people's lives."

In 1997, his position was beginning to "evolve," but he insisted, "I truly don't believe it's a deterrent."

In June 2003, however, Dean had abandoned his earlier beliefs. He said, "As governor, I came to believe that the death penalty would be a just punishment for certain, especially heinous crimes, such as the murder of a child or the murder of a police officer."

8. Repealing Bush's tax cuts

A year ago, Dean started out saying he'd repeal all of Bush's tax cuts. Asked about how he'd pay for increased spending in health care and education, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported, Dean "doesn't hem or haw" when answering the question. "'By getting rid of the President's tax cut,' Dean says. Not freezing it, mind you -- getting rid of it. All $1.7 trillion worth."

But Dean has not been consistent. In July 2002, Dean said on Meet the Press, "here's a few little things I wouldn't repeal. There are some retirement investment pieces I wouldn't repeal, although I would have to add some so that lower-income workers could help pay for their retirement, not just people like me."

Dean offered a still-different position March 2003, saying his tax policy would be to "repeal the president's tax cuts for people that make more than $300,000, with a few exceptions."

In May 2003, Dean came full circle, saying that he's back to wanting to repeal "all" of the Bush tax cuts.

9. Troop deployment in Iraq

In August 2003, Dean said U.S. troops need to stay in Iraq. "It's a matter of national security," Dean said. "If we leave and we don't get a democracy in Iraq, the result is very significant danger to the United States."

In last week's debate in Albuquerque, Dean completely reversed course, saying, "We need more troops. They're going to be foreign troops, not more American troops, as they should have been in the first place. Ours need to come home."

10. Civil liberties in a post-9/11 America

Shortly after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, while Dean was still governor of Vermont, he suggested a "reevaluation" of civil liberties in America.

Specifically, Dean said he believed that the attacks and their aftermath would "require a reevaluation of the importance of some of our specific civil liberties. I think there are going to be debates about what can be said where, what can be printed where, what kind of freedom of movement people have and whether it's OK for a policeman to ask for your ID just because you're walking down the street."

More importantly, Dean said he didn't have a position on whether these steps would be good or bad. When asked if the Bill of Rights would have to be trimmed, Dean said, "I haven't gotten that far yet."

In March 2003, Dean told The Nation's David Cord that he believes "portions" of the USA Patriot Act "overreach," but added, "I haven't condemned Congress for passing" the legislation.

On August 19, however, Dean accused Ashcroft of taking advantage "of the climate of fear and adopted a series of anti-terror tactics that go far beyond protecting our country and erode the rights of average Americans." He added that the U.S. should "roll back" the USA Patriot Act.

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/000622.html

[dfong63]

13. you're giving Clark way too much credit

Wesley Clark is clearly the candidate who will have a better chance to beat George Bush - period.

i don't agree. and saying "I'm right - period" is not going to convince me.

[RetroLounge]

20. Sorry, but if Clark comes in second

then he's second best.

or are you saying voters are just not as smart as you are?

[DancingBear]

4. Also, economic conditions were the critical factor

Mortgages were at 16-17% during the last portion of Carters term, and the hostage situation was happening. These things were major factors. Plus, Reagan was able to paint himself as being more "American" than Carter.

If unforseen things such as the above happen, you are correct in your assumptions. It's my belief, however, that the Carter administration was the "trusting soul", while the Bush one is the "cheating husband." Bush has angles covered that Carter never even knew existed.

[BootinUp]

5. Reagan v Carter has to be put in perspective

The economy was in the dumper, all you heard about was inflation, inflation, inflation, interest rates, inflation, inflation, gas prices, hostages. More than anything that is what killed Carter. A lot of democrats defected from their party that day.

I can analyze Dean v Bush here but I'm not going to. There have been many excellent posts about it, I am going to be off-line for a while but will be back later.

cheers

edited for sleepy spelling

[Octafish]

8. Bush STOLE that election, too.

There's a ton of evidence the Traitor Bill Casey, and maybe Poppy, too, met with the Iranians and PAID them to hold the hostages until after the 1980 election. Otherwise, Carter would've likely been re-elected.

Funny. The same players were involved in 1984, 1988 and 2000. They're the BFEE.

[HFishbine]

16. For all my critisizm of conspiracy theories

These events did take place. It's a fact, Jack.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

17. Jon Anderson

who paid for his campaign? He got more than 6% of the pop. vote. and helped Reagan win many states.

[amyforclark04]

9. My first comments at DU!

Hi guys, here are my first comments on this forum ...here goes nothing.

There is another big difference between Dean and Reagan...Reagan had the charm factor (not angry man syndrome) that attracted people to him. Dean does not have this -- at all.

[sandnsea]

14. Welcome Amy!!

:hi:

[amyforclark04]

15. Hi!

Thanks for the welcome!

[UrbScotty]

18. Hi Amy! Welcome to DU...

...but Dean has a lot of charm factor, just like Clark!

I don't know if you can see it, but look:

[Bombtrack]

11. Reagan was a charismatic governor of a superstate

and what then was a swing state. And he was facing a candidate with much lower approval ratings, who's balls were being held by the khomeini during huge stagflation.

California in 1980 was like what Pennsylvania and Florida would be today combined.

Not to mention the country was even more liberal then than it is today.

[Scoopie]

12. Dean

Won't be your R.R.
That was Clinton.

[Larkspur]

22. Howard Dean is my Harry Truman

In 1948, my mom and dad, who were married in May of that year, voted for Harry Truman, despite the polls saying Dewey would wallop Truman, and as history teaches us, Truman pulled off an upset and humilated the Republican machine.

Howard Dean will pull off the greatest upset in American political history and will do it twice in one year -- win the Dem nomination and win the White House.

Howard Dean is my Harry Truman.

[UrbScotty]

25. Dean is more like FDR than Truman.

Bush is the first President since Hoover (FDR's predecessor, as you may note) during whose Presidency America has lost jobs.

FDR inspired millions of Ameridcasns through struggle seventy years ago, and I think Dean will do the same thing if elected.

[John_H]

23. Bogus comparison.

This election is going to be about national security--the asskiss media and 200 million chimpy bucks will see to that. We need to run someone who can appeal to the anti war base (not the "I hate generals" freak jobs) and go toe to toe against Chimp. Clark's best at that. Kerry's fine.

[TexasPatriot]

24. well, the last congressional election was

and Bush managed to twist pub wins out of tight races up and down the board.

The economy was a stinking pit a year ago... we had 2 years of tax cuts for rich people... we had a growing healthcare crisis etc etc etc

But Bush defined the election in terms of national security and he kicked our democratic butts. If you want to run on the economy, then dont give him national security!!! How hard can this be.