the 800 lb gorilla nobody talks about

[windansea]

REGISTRATION BY POLITICAL PARTY

Year Dem Rep Other Ind.
2004 43.2% 35.7% 4.9% 16.2%

Lots of discussions here in DU about the south, NE liberals, midwest centrists, Florida etc etc....but nobody talks about California.

In the recall, 62% voted republican (or you could say 48.6% RINO and 13.5 conservative)....in a state where Dems outnumber pubs by almost 10%....this caught a lot of people by surprise including the LA Times whose polls were so far off it was laughable.

There are many interpretations of why this happened...but one thing is for sure...the pubbies think California's 55 electoral votes may be in play and will spend a ton of money here in the 04 GE...this will force the Dems to divert $$$ and resources to a state we usually take for granted...which in turn will affect resources available to contest other battleground states.

Like the multiple thermonuclear strategies in the movie War games, there are multiple strategies in the state by state electoral war we wage every 4 years to elect a president.

Looking at results and polls of DEMOCRATIC primaries is all well and good...many supporters here also tout national candidate vs Bush polls to prove better electability...but the GE is NOT A NATIONAL ELECTION...it is a SERIES OF STATEWIDE BATTLES for electoral votes.

For instance...if our candidate is one who will not do well or contest in the southern states...this allows the pubs to divert more $$$ and resources to the battleground states, and the 800 lb gorilla of electoral votes....California.

Just something for you all to think about when electability is discussed.

:dem:

[TexasPatriot]

1. if the democratic party

thinks it can win with the same old strategy... then we freaking deserve what we get.

[windansea]

4. California doesn't seem to matter in primaries

but it is muy importante in the GE...why do you think chimpy just rolled out his amnesty program???

[knight_of_the_star]

96. Amensty is another story

People out here are POed about that idea of his, especially since we get VERY large numbers of illegals coming in every year. He's going to have to work hard to get past THAT elephant in the room.

You also have to understand, people did NOT like Bustamante or Davis. THAT is why Arnold won, not because he is a good Republican.

[SlavesandBulldozers]

5. exactly

great post.

Kerry has written off the South. I don't know what his plans for Cali are.

the Cali gubernatorial thing was a circus, it's difficult to see through the spectacle, much like the FL 2000 debacle. What really happened? Are all those green counties in that picture going to anabashedly vote Bush - or were they voting simply for "change", or "celebrity?" Were they voting for Repub policy, or simply a Rino replacement to what's his face?

[windansea]

94. the map is based on counties won or lost

in the recall...doesn't mean there aren't lots of Dems in the green ones

[redqueen]

8. Agreed

They let this happen so I'm ABB this year but that's it. I just don't trust the party leadership anymore.

[pacifictiger]

101. that says more about

people are fed up with status quo than it does about republican vote - what put many over the top to vote for him was his democratic kennedy wife.

[eissa]

2. CA native here

Granted, I live in the extremely conservative Central Valley, but let me tell you, it's not pretty here. The state has really taken a turn to the right. Dems should not take the state for granted.

[windansea]

3. I know...I live in SD

this state will be a huge battleground

[cheezus]

7. South Dakota will be a huge battleground?

/tounge-in-cheek

[windansea]

13. heh

very funny!!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Gore 53.4% Bush 41.7%

Nader 3.8%.. are you serious?

[Jerseycoa]

9. Ancient history now

is what they're saying. 800+ pound gorilla.

[windansea]

11. deadly serious

not saying we won't win the state...but it's going to be CONTESTED this time...which means we will have to spend a lot more $$$ here which means we have less for other battleground states.

where do you think chimpy's new amnesty program is aimed at??

[BootinUp]

10. orange county native here

left in '87 for southern pastures.

Not sure that ahnolds election should weigh on our minds too much. That was a state issue there, I believe. However, if the economy/jobs are strong by october then forget it.

[Dark Star]

24. Right, Jim.

Ahnold's election was complex as hell. Actually, it was hell.

Anyway, Davis was an a-hole. He kept reneging on very important democratic promises; he tried to play it down the middle and, in the end, the $$$$ won out. However, I must say it nearly killed me to vote no on recall after what Davis had done!

The GE will go democratic in CA; it's a whole different ballgame.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

12. They voted for a prochoice, pro gun control, pro education

pro gay rights Republican..apples and oranges

[windansea]

18. can you spell amnesty program

30% hispanic population here

this state will be contested with mega bucks

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

21. That's why it was silly of Dean to squander so much in IA and NH

[windansea]

25. I'm not talking about primaries

strictly GE electoral strategies

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

69. All polls will be open during the GE

Many LA voters were sent to the wrong place or had to leave line to return to work.

[windansea]

73. more people voted in the recall

than when Davis got elected...limited polls was not the problem

[jsw_81]

14. Schwarzenegger is a pro-choice liberal Republican

And Gray Davis was incredibly boring without any charisma whatsoever. So it's no surprise that the movie star won. But does this mean that we'll lose California in November? No way!

Californians may elect a liberal Republican governor, but there's no way they're going to support a right-wing conservative fundie who has given us four long, depressing years of war, recession, and scandal.

[windansea]

15. live here?

we used to elect conservative governors quite often

[Courtney_P]

19. The really scary thing is

Bish's job approval rating in California. 52% is the latest. If we have to neglect states like PA and Florida in order to solidify California it could get ugly fast.

[windansea]

23. correct

meanwhile people twiddle their thumbs...we'll just win the Gore states plus Ohio and everthing's rosy

I don't know the last time California was seriously contested by the pubs in a GE but believe me...they will spend some serious change here...which will force the Dems to do the same

TV ads cost mega bucks here

[jsw_81]

22. When? 1982?

The California that elected Reagan and Deukmejian no longer exists.

[eissa]

26. Pete Wilson was not that long ago

and he's reappeared as the "brains" behind Ah-nold. I agree that the gover-nator is not your typical repuke, but his popularity among 18-24 year MTV males could come in handy to *. Add that to the amnesty program, and a relatively high rating for *, and CA could be in play.

[windansea]

30. exactly

a lot of people don't get it....the state will be in play and gazillions will be spent...a lot more than recent GE's

[windansea]

28. Pete Wilson????

think he was a RINO too??

[jsw_81]

32. Wilson was pro-choice

Definitely RINO (except on immigration issues).

[windansea]

36. are you joking??

Wilson a RINO??? bwahahahaahahaha

ever hear of the Hoover Institution??

http://www-hoover.stanford.edu/bios/pwilson.html

[jsw_81]

43. Then why did he flop in the '96 primaries?

Pro-choice Republicans=RINO. 99/100 Freepers will agree.

[windansea]

45. not in California

since Reagan years you have to be pro choice here

Wilson is a CONSERVATIVE...did you even go to the Hoover Institute site?? Pete is a distinguished fellow there....

[Dark Star]

29. correct and even more:

Davis turned his back on us!

I took a bus with a group of the disabled to protest his turnabout on a promise. He is/was a sleaze.

You are right: CA will go democratic in November.

[windansea]

31. not without a fight and lots of $$$

when is the last time the pubs really spent money here in a GE?

this year they will, chimpy will parade around with the terminator and wave his amnesty program at a 30% hispanic population

also..there are a TON of huge defense corps here...high tech is rebounding...I guarantee you the DNC is not taking this state for granted this year.

[tishaLA]

64. I think you're wrong

I'm in L.A. and I cannot imagine CA going repugblican in November. People are already pissed at Arnold--idiots I know who voted for him--because of his budget plan, his increases in college tuition, his $15B bond that he didn't tell them about before the recall election, etc. They see the real economic effects of republicans in this state and they CRINGE. Gropernator won because of a cult of personality and because the press covered his campaign as if it were Access Hollywood or Entertainment Tonight. That won't happen in the GE.

[windansea]

83. Look at the map in original post

LA and SF are probably most liberal areas in California...Davis couldn't even win LA...Davis lost...not so much because of Arnie but because Californians wanted to send a message to Sacramento

they got the message...

[John_H]

16. It's be fun to watch a pretend hero try to bash a real one, wouldn't it?

My guess is that it will be Kerry-Clark duking it out for CA. What's Arnie going to do? Then it will be Kerry or Clark (Or both) in the GE. How sweet will it be respond to the inevitable psuedo-heroic photo ops of Arnie-Chimp with real photos of real heroics?

[windansea]

60. heh!!

remarkable we got two governors from Predator 1

[SlavesandBulldozers]

102. and Running Man

(lest we forget)

[genius]

17. Kucinich would get the intellectuals in the GE. Edwards would pull

in the dumb Republican housewives. This isn't an insult to Edwards. It's an insult to the way some of these people think. I've talked to a lot of Republican women and they are mostly idiots with no social conscience. Together Kucinich and Edwards would make the most effective ticket.

[Courtney_P]

20. My mother

is a "dumb Republican housewife." She is far from an idiot and has a great deal of social conscience. She may not agree with me politically, but she is no idiot.

[Dark Star]

27. Stereotyping is not helpful.

Mrs. Kerry was a republican woman for years, FYI.

[DemBones DemBones]

39. Agreed, but she did qualify it by saying *most* Republican

women. It would be better to say "Too many people are idiots" when it comes to voting, though, since idiocy is not confined to one party or sex or occupation ("housewives" were mentioned.)

[genius]

53. I guess she got smarter. You should meet some of the Republican women

I know. A guy, whose HMO refused to give him life-saving treatment, burned himself to death on the freeway. A number of Republican women around here sat around and talked about how, since the news media had broadcast the event, and they had had to watch, he was going to "hell" and God would punish him for ruining their day. Then they turned their attention to more important issues like which restaurant was the classiest for dinner. Do you know any Democratic women who think like this?

[economic justice]

70. Bizarre

That's pretty sweeping, don't you think? Republicans talk like this as well. They'd have the Democratic women marching for an investigation of the accident, turning the suicide into a hero, and running his wife for office with a candle as the logo. It cuts both ways. This kind of sweeping generalization of people of EITHER party is just wrong.

[fujiyama]

88. Edwards/Kucinich!

That's actually a cool team! Unfortunately, I doubt either of them could win in a statewide election.

[KFC]

33. The Recall was a Fluke

Gray davis was incredibly unpopular, and a movie star stepped in and took it. Had little to do with party affiliation.

I think CA is a lock for us no matter who is nominated.

[windansea]

49. that's the ticket...it was a fluke

no way is it a lock...I'll bet more money will be spent here in GE 04 than ever...it will be much closer than Gore Bush and both parties will spend tons here...watch and see

[economic justice]

72. Hummm...

Usually, I agree with KFC on most everything. But on this, I think you are right. I honestly think California is going to be a hard fought contest. Of course it depends who we end up running, but if it's anyone with a chance at all at getting some of the Southern states, the Republicans will fight for California. People better wake-up....this state is changing.

[tinanator]

93. It was a fake, here is the real gorilla

http://vote2003.ss.ca.gov/Returns/gov/00.htm

It takes a MASSIVE leap of faith to look at the totals and think they represent anything like statistical probability or actual results. When you break it down by county and candidate, you find the strangest things, like fer instance, our local candidate Gino Martorana got 18 votes in Fresno County, but 532(!) statewide?
BULLSHIT!!!!!!! NOBODY ABSOLUTELY NOBODY is going to vote for someone they never even heard of, let alone know, from a distant county when they have a smorgasbord of high profile protest candidates including a Porn publisher of high integrity, a porn star of none, a short ex-child actor, a legitimate Republican candidate who HAD the support of most serious Republicans (insulted by the last minute insinuation in the race of a decadent hollywood Nazi courtesy of GW and KR and most of all Ken Lay) and dozens of name-alike candidates to pull the switch for. What these results indicate is absolute tampering with results. With over a hundred candidates to choose from, how can it be that not ONE drew single or two digit results? I havent even brought up Cruz Bustamante's shoo-in constituency advantage. It was simply mandatory for the same cabal who ripped off and put CA in this hole to maintain their hegemony. Stealing an election is childs play, apparently. They certainly had the MASSIVE assistance of the national media! Another blatant clue is what you see when you seperate county results by their voting systems. These nobody candidates drew outlandish numbers in rural counties using known crooked voting technologies populated by farmworkers who OBVIOUSLY would vote for Bustamante. All it takes is a corrupt media, and anything is possible, isnt it, Arnie? If this election isnt an issue, how can you expect a decent count on the next one? For these reasons alone, Arnold must be subjected to a recall drive.

[windansea]

95. anyone challenging the results?

court cases etc??

[tinanator]

97. I am not aware of that happening yet

But then, Florida 2000...
People I know are studying the spread, but it all comes down to one issue, not surprisingly, BBV.

[DemBones DemBones]

34. Will CA Republicans support Bush's amnesty plan?

I can see it getting him some indy and Dem support and Hispanics from both parties but won't he lose some of his own base?

[windansea]

38. I'm sure the extreme wingers are upset

but chimpy's base just wants to win...and understand what amnesty is all about...actually the big corps love amnesty...more cheap labor

[DemBones DemBones]

42. So yu don't foresee many in his base bolting the GOP because he

has been such a big spender, put the country into deficit again, and wants to ignore the rule of law to give the corporate CEOs the cheap labor they want?

I know there's talk of many Republicans being unhappy with Shrub. Too bad he's not being opposed by a real conservative Republican. They are much more tolerable than this crowd. (Never thought I'd miss Nixon, you know?)

[windansea]

47. what are they going to do?

pull the lever for Kerry?? no chance of that happening

but they might go to a more palatable candidate like Clark

[rucky]

35. Will Arnold "save" Calee-for-nee-a by November ?

Don't think so.

[windansea]

44. he doesn't have to save it

just be perceived as getting the economy going again

California economy on the mend, according to UCLA forecast

SAN FRANCISCO – California's weak economy, a major focus of the state's Oct. 7 recall election, is slowly improving and the state's battered job market should show signs of life by the end of the year, according to a forecast released Wednesday.

The survey from the Anderson School at the University of California, Los Angeles said important indicators such as international trade, personal income and investment in the nation's most populous and richest state were finally showing growth after a long recession.

While the UCLA forecast ratcheted its expectation for California's job growth in the second half of the year, the report's author, Tom Lieser, said he was optimistic about the prospects for the state's economy starting at the end of 2003 and continuing into 2004. "We are looking at an improving economy," Lieser said. "Fundamentally, it is better than it was a year ago, and we are looking at more numbers that have turned in this forecast."
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20030924-0100-economy-california-forecast.html

[Blitz]

37. The 650 lb Gorilla

The other major factor is New York. It could easily swing Republican in the GE. Usually, NY is divided between upstate (center-right) and NYC (left) but this time NYC may be more center-left in light of 9-11 and the still popular Guiliani working hard for Bush and upstate may be more right than center-right with Governor Pataki also campaigning. I don't think that Bloomberg will be much of a factor. As with California, if the Democrats want to hold NY, they will have to spend time and money there that they did not spend in 2000. That's time and money not spent in Ohio, West Virginia, Florida, the Carolinas, etc. It's going to be interesting.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

40. Very true but that is true with every candidate

[Blitz]

62. That's right

My observations were candidate-neutral. Of course, every potential Democratic candidate brings his own dynamic into it.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

52. Unless they parade Osama in NYC (which they might)

There is no chance in hell Bush will get the NYC vote.

[Blitz]

63. Bush doesn't need the whole NYC vote

If NYC is even a little close, he can get the NYS vote. NYC has about 8 million residents. NYS has, if I recall correctly, over thirty million residents. It's just that, in the past, NYC voted more uniformly than the rest of the state.

[windansea]

57. what was the Gore Bush percentage there in 2000?

[Capn Sunshine]

41. That issue must explain Dean's massive lead here

unlike many of the more sheep like citizens in eastern states, we aren't forced to watch TV day and night due to inclement weather. We have other pursuits, and one of them is reading from sources we view less confectionary than the televised corporate line of the day.

Electability is exactly why they want Kerry; because he's notably low in this quotient.

The republicans already have the poll in hand that scares the bejeezus out of them; the one showing Howard Dean can beat *.

An actual challenge from outside their smarmy little clubs might upset the apple cart, and we can't have that! After all , what would happen if Dean won?

Gentlemen! We must act now to protect our phoney-baloney jobs!

[genius]

54. Kerry and Edwards are now leading in California

I got that from the AOL poll that AOL keeps posting.

[Adjoran]

46. We can only hope

the repubs devote a lot of time and money to California. They tried it in 2000, which gave us the chance to compete in Florida.

I doubt they will repeat that mistake, though.

Let's face it: if California is "in play" for the repubs, we are burnt toast. Our electoral vote base is CA/NY; if we can't win them without devoting substantial resources, there is little chance of winning.

I think the recent repub talk of competing in CA is half giddy optimism after Ahnald, and half feint to scare us.

[windansea]

48. it won't be a half feint

they will come here harder than in 2000...they may not pull it off but we will be forced to spend more here as well...which is why I think we are electorally doomed if we run someone like Kerry who will be GE roadkill in the south. The pubs won't have to spend much of their war chest to win there against him. Clark or Edwards are another story altogether.

[Dhalgren]

50. Well, it looks like we are all doomed - doomed, I say!

Every state in the Union could, conceivably, vote republican. We don't have enough money to wage campaigns in every state - so - Doomed, doomed, doomed.

[windansea]

51. we're not doomed

if we run someone who can really compete for southern states...forcing the pubs to spend more there and less in other key states

[Dhalgren]

55. There are no Democrats in the race, who can

win in the "South". Now, Edwards might win the two Carolinas, Clark might win Arkansas, someone might even pick up KY and/or Tenn. But, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, even Virginia and Missouri will all go republican - regardless of who the Democratic candidate is. Just MO.

[windansea]

56. Clark or Edwards can win 2-4 southern states

and will force the pubs to spend much more in the region

I don't think Florida is a lock for Bush either

[digno dave]

58. Ahnold was soc. progressive, Davis a schmuck

Swarzenegger ran as a social progressive, the antithesis of Bush. He's pro-choice, for crying out loud. Also, Gray Davis was a schmuck. Who would want to support a paper mache(sp) pansy. Seriously, he was so slimy it made MY skin crawl.
It will have to be contested somewhat, nonetheless.
My 800 lb. gorilla is named Osama.

[windansea]

59. heh

we have no control over when Osama is caught...sometimes I think he's already dead...no videos for 2 years...but that's another story

California will be contested and heavily

[West Coast Democrat]

61. Yeah, Yeah, Yeah....Is Zogby Doing CA Push Polls Yet?

Remember his bogus 2000 Election Polls....The GOP was trying its damnedest to convince Democrats that California was "in play." Don't fall for it again.

[windansea]

65. don't know..but chimpy is push voting hispanics

and corporate interests with his amnesty program.

I hope I'm wrong...but I am sure the pubs will contest the state and even more if they have a lock on all the southern states

it all depends on who we nominate

[West Coast Democrat]

66. Bush's "Amnesty Program" his SO unpopular w/ his base

he probably won't want to talk about it during the campaign season.

[windansea]

78. his base may bitch

but where they gonna go?? we can definitely win moderates over with the right candidate..but the real wingers have no where to go

[West Coast Democrat]

80. Yep. They'll stay home.........

exactly where we want them!

[windansea]

87. maybe so...n/t

[economic justice]

67. Good thinking - We CANNOT take California for granted

This is actually very solid thinking. Living in a red county in California, it amazes me how conservative other areas of the state are becoming. For years, some of the smaller counties along with Orange County were very conservative, that's changing fast as more of the state veers to the right.

One thing though....I'm not sure Arnold is a sign of GOP strength in the state. He is very much a liberal on most every social issue and is proving he's not exactly a typical Republican fiscally either. But, the message in OPPOSITION to Gray Davis and Democrats in general cannot be swept aside.

ONE issue, among all others, will make the difference (on both sides) for California. IMMIGRATION. The large hispanic vote is in a bit of flux now and the middle class in California is becoming rabidly anti-immigrant. Things are changing all over California and should not be taken for granted. Yes, the Bay Area is safe.....but we are more and more becoming only an island in California. Just look at that map in the original post.

[windansea]

74. correct...and the immigration issue is complex

Arnie won a good share of hispanics and chimpy's going after it with amnesty...perhaps pubbies here will revolt on this..who knows

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

68. 1,500 polls out of over 5,000 were open that day

That race was indicative of nothing and Bustamante was a POOR candidate.

[windansea]

71. more people voted in the recall

than when Davis got elected...so I don't think limite polls was a big problem

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

75. Kerry isn't Bustamante and Bush isn't Arnold

[Blitz]

76. Speaking of Bustamante

Did you know that he endorsed Lieberman? Personally, I found that very, very odd. Moore-Clark level odd.

[windansea]

77. correct

just making sure you understood the number of polls wasn't the problem...more voters voted..and Davis lost by 17%...27% if you include McClintock

[webtrainer]

79. The Gropernator won't be so popular by November . . .

if you believe what they say at www.arnoldwatch.org

--he got busted for getting a $4.5 mill personal loan for his campaign (ruled illegal)

--is erasing HMO patient's right

--he's helping car dealers protect themselves from suits when people find out they've been ripped off on interest rates (they're starting an intiative drive)

etc, etc.

OTOH: If the nominee is a rather bland Northeastern liberal who doesn't bring out new voters, we'll have a problem. Davis barely got elected in 2002 or whenever his last real election was held.

[windansea]

81. Arnold has 52% approval now

if the economy improves..all the other crap won't matter

the point of my original post is that a NE liberal who does zip in the south will allow the pubs to spend even more here in California and in true battleground states...I don't think California is a lock anymore and I hope some people wake up fast.

[West Coast Democrat]

85. 52% Approval is very Average

especially for a Governor who *supposedly* came into office with a huge mandate.

[corporatewhore]

82. arnuld ran on a populist pretense just like ventura we need some one

running on a populist message

[corporatewhore]

84. Yes to the Hitler !!! and yes to the Groping!!!!

As to quote "arnold" on Conan

[West Coast Democrat]

86. Another take on California

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000288.shtml

[Blue_Roses]

89. Good point

but what will Arnold be doing for California in Nov., and better yet how tired of them will they be...? Something tells me we may have that 800lb elephant "sedated" cause he will be so tired!

[windansea]

90. we'll see n/t

[Iverson]

91. There must not be a Green running for mayor.

There's your explanation.

[LosAngelesDemocrat]

92. Any Democrats in California?

California is a unique situation though it is likely that without worry California is going to stay democratic. However, in long term trends going ahead to the next election cycle or the one after, I see what's happened in Oregon as possibly what may happen in California. But that depends on the democratic candidate dynamics mainly focusing on Dean. Nader is attaching his possible candidacy to the Dean was treated by the democratic establishment. If there is anyone in California who would like to discuss this or anyone in the Los Angeles area that is willing to volunteer immediately for a candidate or this particular issue pls contact me directly or join www.meetup.com



Democrat Meetup Volunteer LA

[windansea]

98. kalifornia kick n/t

[CalProf]

99. Rove doesn't think he has a prayer in Cali

If he did he wouldn't have let Shrub reverse the Clinton Forest Preservation rules. Bush will allow a trippling of logging in old growth and second growth forests. That move will be discusses, at length, all through the summmer, and in this state even lots of Republicans like their forests unspoiled.

[windansea]

100. been to San Diego lately?

?????????