Kerry may win - but for reasons which aren't pretty.

[RichM]

He isn't a truth-teller. He was dead wrong on the biggest issue of our day, took his position out of rank opportunism -- & has offered tortuous less-than-candid defenses for it for 15 months. He voted for the PATRIOT Act. His attacks on Dean for the not-safer-with-Saddam-captured remark had a distinctly malodorous rightwing tone to them. He kicked off his campaign in front of a battleship in South Carolina, & has been chest-poundingly hyper-flaunting his glorious military record ever since.

So it's hard to argue that Kerry's nomination - if it comes to pass - will be based on his marvelous virtues. IMO, if it comes to pass, it will be more attributable to the strategic distribution of his deficiencies.

It will help him to not be a truth-teller. (America, in the words of the Jack Nicholson character, can't handle the truth.) It will help him to pander on ad infinitum about his military record. That sort of stuff plays well in a culture drenched with the sickness of militarism. It will help him to stem from a wealthy elitist background & to be married to an heiress. It will help him to be tall and fairly distinguished-looking, more or less conforming to basic Hollywood requirements.

But most of all, what will help him is that he is not particularly threatening to the interests that control America. He is not a big threat to Wall Street, to the CIA, or to the Pentagon. If he becomes president, there will be a little cleaning up at the margins, but nothing fundamental will change. America will not be forced to openly confront any of the mammoth lies necessary for the continued domination of our society by a narrow sliver of the population. There will be no talk of the wickedness of American imperialism; of the ugly truth about why we always support rightwing dictators; of our corporate-driven impulse to control the world. I expect that the massive lying of our media will not even be a campaign issue.

As for the Bush gang: there will be no talk of "Mr. Bush, why did you steal the election of 2000? Why did you use your presidency to plunder the US Treasury on behalf of your business cronies? Why did you wage a war of aggression on a defenseless country on a thoroughly fraudulent pretext? Why did you disgrace us?" Rather, the election campaign will be limited to far more narrow issues. It will be more at the level of, "Yes, of course Saddam was a great threat. I supported the war, but strongly disagree with details of HOW IT WAS DONE." The rest of the truth -- ie, the mind-boggling criminality of the last 3 years -- will disappear down the memory hole. I wonder if Enron or the Gitmo concentration camp will even be mentioned in more than glib, passing fashion.

He may conceivably get away with this. This summer, the narrow sliver of population that truly rules our country will consider carefully whether or not Bush's recklessness (on their behalf and at their behest) has introduced such a degree of instability into the world situation that it actually endangers their position. If they feel a change must be made, the media will carry more reports of Bush errors, "flawed plans for war," and Bush will be eased out. This is conceivable, because Kerry is regarded as sufficiently trustworthy and loyal by the powers that be. But if they decide no change is necessary, Kerry will get exactly the same treatment Howard Dean got in the last two weeks, and the looting will continue unabated.

Let's not pretend that there's any story of triumphant virtue, behind the events of these last 2 weeks. Rather, the ruling class is carefully moving into position a loyal alternative to call upon, in the event that they should feel they need him.

[cthrumatrix]

1. thank you...agree with every word........

[gWbush is Mabus]

10. I agree 100%

only Dean can challenge Bush effectively

[DU9598]

2. Supreme Court

If he can do all of that, win next November, and then appoint 3 left-leaning or centrist judges to the Supreme Court in the next four years, I am all for it.

I am an Edwards fan, but I plan to fall in line once a candidate is nominated, even if it is not Edwards.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. Good reasoning

This thread is all about speculation on motives etc.... The fact is Kerry has been and always will be a good liberal.

[Cheswick2.0]

21. good liberal's didn't vote for the IWR

Good liberals didn't vote for NCLB and they don't speak in favor of school vouchers. Kerry is neither a good liberal or a leader.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

26. No. Good liberals don't rush to war

save it.

[girl gone mad]

3. He is less of a threat to the status quo..

And I'm glad SHarpton brought up the "don't go crying in your teacups" deal last night on Hardball.

Kerry has shown himself to be an RNC appeaser.

[On the Road]

4. Bush is So Weak This Year

that Kerry just might take him.

Kerry's a long-time politician, and that will help him not to make mistakes. Voters obviously do not want someone who is plain-spoken and shoots from the hip.

[NashVegas]

7. I've Got a Feeling

If the elites are confident the status quo won't be shaken up, a dog could beat him by the time the Wurlitzer's done playing.

[Armstead]

5. Hi Rich

Haven't "spoken" for a while. I haven't been around DU much, and when I have been I was wondering if you were still around.

I absolutely agree with every word you wrote above.

[RichM]

30. Hey there, Armstead!

I haven't been around here much lately, either. To be honest, I'm not sure it's really a healthy place for me to be. Perhaps in limited doses, it might be prove to be more fun than maddening. It's important to keep that F/M (fun/maddening) ratio up above 1, you know! :-)

Among other things, I've been working as a Kucinich volunteer, doing all sorts of stuff, including door-to-door talking with people, tabling, leafletting, office work, etc. It's pretty interesting -- I've never been active in a campaign before.

I hope you've been well - :hi:

[quinnox]

6. Kerry is a pro

Which is why he just might topple Bush-bot. And it will be morning in America if Bush can be brought down. It's very important this occurs, maybe for the whole world.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Armstead]

18. You mean the angry message that Kerry stole and watered down?

When I hear Dean, I hear someone that feels the way I and many others do. I also hear hope and concrete solutions.

When I hear Kerry I hear the same old stuff. The only "edge" to it is what he appropriated from Dean.

[ibegurpard]

19. No one mentioned Skull and Bones

eom

[grasswire]

11. excellent analysis...

...thanks very much for posting your thoughts.

[mikehiggins]

12. Hey, a win is a win even if it is a partial loss. The situation we face

is that dire. If Kerry is part of the old answer and can win, then so be it. At least Bush will not be able to drag the country down any further than he has.

My problem with that is that he isn't likely to win unless he presents a reason for people to vote for him rather than for the incumbent wartime President. It is easy to imagine other candidates who would fare worse than a rich yankee senator from Massachusetts but it takes some thought.

Certainly Clark OR Edwards would be easier to sell to the general American public.

Kerry is the media's candidate, and the candidate of the people behind the media. That sums it up quite nicely, thank you.

[blm]

13. Yeah. This is how happy the DC powerstructure is about Kerry:

http://www.nathannewman.org/log/

Ignore the Anti-Kerry Meme: We will soon see the "Dean is McGovern" meme replaced with the "Kerry is Dukakis" line. Just some reminders of why Kerry could never be mistaken for the cautious, wonkish Dukakis (aside from his military record), check out this post on his investigation of the CIA-drugs-Contra connection where he almost single-handedly dogged the Reagan and Bush administration when the rest of the Democrats had slunk away after the Ollie North hearings:

Washington Post, November 27, 1986



Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) charged yesterday that Attorney General Edwin Meese III and the Justice Department have shunted aside allegations of illegal transactions involving the rebels in Nicaragua for months and cannot be trusted to conduct a thorough inquiry into the secret money transfers disclosed this week...

Washington Post, August 8, 1987

At issue, along with the rebels' character and reputation, is the U.S. government's commitment to enforce the law against criminals whose activities might advance foreign policy objectives, congressional investigators said. An overarching issue, Kerry said, is how "the power of the narco-dollar" has come to affect governments and policies.

New York Times, April 13, 1990

But committee investigators said their inquiry was hindered by uncooperative Federal officials. Mr. Kerry disclosed today that Lawrence E. Walsh, the independent counsel investigating the Iran-contra affair, has been investigating allegations that Reagan Administration officials sought to obstruct the Kerry investigation...

Boston Globe, April 14, 1990

In making the report public yesterday, Kerry said that the independent counsel in the Iran-contra arms deal is looking into allegations that Reagan administration officials obstructed an early portion of the committee's investigation.

So don't buy any media line of Kerry as some cautious, blow-dried wonk. No one in the Senate has more experience dealing with terrorists, including those funded by the US through drug dollars down in Central America.
>>>>>>>>>

[Armstead]

25. So where is THAT Kerry today?

The argument against Kerry is not that he isn't a good man with guts.

It's that he's been worn down by participation in the machine for too long. Sometimes, being a participant can sap the spirit.

Compare Kerry the candidate today with what Kucinich and Dean are bringing out. Kerry probably is even more aware of what goes on behind the scenes than they are. But he has been avoiding mentioning all of the elephants in the room.

[blm]

28. Really? How many corporate go alongs worked on the Kyoto Protocol for

10 years? The DC powerstructures weren't crazy about that piece of work.

How many go alongs aligned with Joe Wilson to get his story out? You think Wilson came out on his own without first securing alliances he trusted?

[blm]

47. Wasn't expecting an answer.

.

[Capn Sunshine]

14. Excellent post

nice reminder to all the band-wagon riders what is going on beneath the surface.

[CWebster]

15. Yo RichM

Wearing out your welcome so soon?

;-)

[RichM]

33. Yeah, I figure, give me about a half hour, & I should offend at least 35

people or so. (Anything less would be a great disappointment.)

Hi CWeb. Hope you've been well :hi:

[THUNDER HANDS]

16. I.E.F.B.D.

It's Everyone's Fault But Dean.

Just keep telling yourself that over and over again.

[pnziii]

17. Kerry voted for all of Bush's policies

So why should I believe him now that he "says" he will fight Bush.

[seaglass]

23. I know, it was awful when he voted for ANWR, wasn't it? n/t

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

20. "not a big threat to Wall Street, to the CIA, or to the Pentagon"

ain't that the truth!

[isbister]

22. I agree with every word, except those that aren't true

I don't agree with those at all...

Alright, I admit it, I only read the first paragraph...

Only one line was accurate so I decided not to read any more.

[bloom]

24. Ed Gillespie (RNC) laid out the Republican stategy

1. Kerry is too liberal

2. Democrats will tax us to death

3. Those evil democrats vote for things like "partial birth' abortion

4. Those evil democrats support gay causes and are intolerant of traditional values

5. Those evil democrats are against judges like Pickering


6. Republicans are for economic opportunity

7. Republicans are for educational opportunity

8. Republicans help one another

9. Republicans keep the world safe and free


That is pretty much it. Those are their issues. Anything about Iraq will be ignored. And attacks on Bush* will be ignored.

Rah rah - God Bless America

[TheDonkey]

31. We can counter those attack perfectly and put them on the offense

with the War in Iraq, Jobs, the enviroment, and healthcare.

RNC is going down.

[emulatorloo]

34. Ed Gillespie is living in a fantasy world

and his top 9 list is ripe for the picking. It is basically BS as we all know, and I have heard JK dismantle it already on CNN etc. No apologies, no disavowal, just hard dismissal. He will continue to dismantle it as time goes on.

I have seen Ed near tears on Hardball when picked on by Tweety. He is a weenie. He and others like him are going to dissolve, because they really have nothing substantive to back their BS up.


On Edit: Add a nasty comment about Eddie

[LizW]

27. Thank you

Excellent post.

[Cheswick2.0]

29. Thanks Rich

I agree with what you have posted. Dean is a leader and a gutsy one at that.

[emulatorloo]

32. Just a suggestion . . .

Why don't you go to his web site johnkerry.com and do a little reading up on him and his positions.

Then maybe go to a stump speech or a town meeting. If you can't go, watch one on C-Span.

Try to put aside your preconceptions before you do these things and be open to what he has done in his career and what he is saying.

You may find that "powers that be" have not been to thrilled w him over the years, and aren't going to be too happy if he is the nominee.

[KoKo]

35. Couldn't agree more Rich! Thanks for saying it. Kerry was "Positioned"

:hi: nice to see you around again.

[RichM]

36. Hi KoKo -

Nice to see you too. Hope everything's been well with you - :hi:

[Dover]

37. Yes indeedy.

Though I'm not as resigned to "accept" this fate or our powerlessness to change things.

[el_gato]

38. I guess I might as well say I agree also

although so many DUers would rather get caught up in the phoney horse race

The whole thing seems contrived that's why I rarely venture into the cadidate threads.

[Larkspur]

39. If Kerry becomes the Dem nominee, he'll defeat Bush not because

of his merits as a senator, which are lackluster and political cowardly, but because people woke up and saw how bad Bush really is.

I want Bush out and will vote for Kerry if he's the nominee, but Kerry does not inspire me to do more for him.

[yellowdawgdem]

40. maybe kerry's not their first choice

I agree with some of your post but not all of it. I do think that the ruling class wants to ease Bush out, and also will pick his replacement as that benefits them. But I am not sure that Kerry is the person they want for that job- I think it might be the General. However, you mentioned that if elected, Kerry will make sure that there is only some cleaning up around the margins, but no real change with pentagon, cia, etc. Why, then, did Kerry say that if he is elected, he will fire Tenent? In point of fact, I didn't think that was a great thing to say. But why would he say something like that if not planning to clean things up?
One thing I will say for Kerry is that he is a pro, and yes that means his voting records are visible and imperfect. And he probably isn't a lilly white virgin, because most Washington politicians are a bunch of corrupt buzzards. Some few are less that way, Barbara Boxer, Wellstone (b4 the 'accident'), Woolsey stick to their guns. But that also makes them vulnerable to losing their seats in this repressive time period. But I guess the point I keep coming back to is that I'm just not so sure that Kerry is who they want.

[George_Bonanza]

41. Kennedy and Wellstone also voted for Patriot Act

Attack them!

[HazMat]

42. Aren't you a Communist ?

It would so follow that a moderate-to-liberal Democrat like Kerry would not float your boat.

The Democratic Party has never been, and will probably never be a far left party. It is a center-left party.

People with extreme views always believe everyone else is crazy.

[yellowdawgdem]

43. communist shmommunist

Du has always been a fairly tolerant place where it has been ok to express varying viewpoints. I hope that doesn't change anytime soon. Expressing a different viewpoint does not make one a communist.

[HazMat]

44. No, the poster is a Marxist

if I recall correctly.

And if so, it would follow that a moderate-to-liberal Democrat would offend him as much as Marxists offend me.

[AnnitaR]

45. Kick for one of the best posts I've read!

:kick:

[yellowdawgdem]

46. we're all in this together

Plenty of people on the DU boards seem to find Kerry distasteful as a candidate. Not just the 'communists' and 'marxists'. And, no, I don't think it follows that moderate-to-liberal democrats naturally feel antagonistic towards marxists and communists, as you put it. Just the opposite. Many of them appreciate these viewpoints, as they add breadth to the more simplistic analyses offered by our current system. However, aside from the term 'ruling class' I don't really see a Marxist analysis here- just some concern about Kerry as our democratic candidate. Even though I've always liked Kerry, I admit that I worry when I see how many people bring up these strong misgivings. I want more than anything in the world for democrats to have a winning ticket, and I can see how people would want to discuss any potential problems that a candidate might have that would cause problems during the election cycle. We are going to have plenty of problems as it is, and need a clear margin of victory, not another close race. In sum, it is better to bring up anything unsavory now, not later on.

[kaitykaity]

48. Check out this Norm Solomon piece.

It is a stinging indictment of how 'nonprogressive' some of the major Democratic candidates are.

Presidential Candidates: Compared to What?
http://www.commondreams.org/cgi-bin/print.cgi?file=/views04/0130-10.htm

For example, we should consider that question in terms of whether John Kerry is a militarist. Compared to George W. Bush, he doesn't seem to be. Compared to Dennis Kucinich or Al Sharpton, he certainly is.

Kerry's senatorial vote for the war resolution in October 2002 remains an indefensible part of his record. Despite the absence of credible evidence, Kerry included this rhetorical question in his oratory: "Why is Saddam Hussein attempting to develop nuclear weapons when most nations don't even try?" In a speech on Oct. 9, 2002, Kerry also tried to justify his pro-war vote with the statement that "according to intelligence, Iraq has chemical and biological weapons."

Politicians who support illegal wars of aggression always have excuses. Kerry blames "intelligence."

On the domestic front, after his New Hampshire victory, Kerry boasted to CNN viewers that he voted for the 1996 "welfare reform" law -- which amounts to class war against low-income mothers.

Likewise, Howard Dean also supported that draconian measure. On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, Dean talked about the welfare law as a terrific booster of self-esteem for poor moms -- even though the law is pushing them out of the home into dead-end minimum wage jobs. Days later, Dean tarnished his populist persona by choosing a new campaign manager, Roy Neel, a former mega-corporate Washington lobbyist who ran the U.S. Telecom Association.

[MidwestMomma]

49. Very interesting post

And what is most frustrating is that if the powers that be have decided to abandon Bush, then perhaps we could have had the chance to elect someone who could bring about some real change.

But then again, if the powers that be will only cut Bush loose when they have an acceptable alternative, it seems we are powerless to elect anyone that can make a difference.

I'll tell my theory. I think the powers that be will let Bush get re-elected. Then let his adminstration go the way of Nixon-Agnew. Let Cheney go down first and be forced to resigned. Appoint a Gerald Ford type they can control and then let Bush crash and burn. How's that for a likely scenario for them to stay in control?

[barbaraann]

50. I agree.

So maybe we should fight like hell to get Kerry elected and then fight HIM like hell to take our country back.

Sigh. I don't think that the Baby Boomers will have a retirement that looks anything like our parents' retirement.

[TexasMexican]

51. Skull and Bones

Wasnt Kerry in the same secret society that Bush was in?

I wonder if that has anything to do with anything.

[Rhiannon12866]

52. Yes. There was a post on this yesterday,

attempting to prove that the two hadn't met. Kerry was a senior when Bush* was a freshman. They don't get inducted into these organizations until junior year. That doesn't mean that they didn't meet after that, but I don't believe that anyone here's determined that yet.:shrug:

[MidwestMomma]

53. Kick for the late evening crowd for a thought provoking post

:kick: