Does Kerry have MO, DE and AZ in the bag?

[DJcairo]

Polls seem to think so:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[cavebat2000]

1. I Hope not

If he wins the nomination.. america is gonna think, "Gore vs Bush ... again?" Cmon people.

[KFC]

13. Gore won

Bush won't be so lucky next time.

[sventvkg]

2. Yuk.............

[MaineDem]

3. No

As we've seen so very clearly lately, nothing is sure until the votes are counted.

I'm taking nothing for granted.

[Jack_Dawson]

4. AZ? No

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. ND as well. eom

[markus]

12. Clark may still stop Kerry in N.D.

He has the entire party organization and parts of the delegation sewn up.

He's on TV in the Fargo/Grand Forks market, but Clark has been for weeks. Dean is not buying anywhere, but we haven't given up by a long shot. Given the lay of the land, I'll take anywhere north of 15% in the straw poll caucus and a share of the (whoppping) 14 commitable delegates.

Given how delegates are allocated in a caucus state, Kerry would beat Clark and Dean 40 to 25 each for the others, and only gain two delegates over Dean. What looks like a big victory isn't so stunning any more, given that Dean is the delegate front runner.

[democratreformed]

6. I can see your point in MO and DE, but not AZ

But, then, I also feel a sense of dejavu.

[DJcairo]

7. SAure. But at this point before Iowa it was all tied up.

[JI7]

8. not until people actually vote

then we will see.

[displacedtexan]

9. Hmmmm... could be a couple of surprises down the road.

Clark may carry OK and one or two other states. MI is pretty much a done Kerry deal.
JK's war chest is bulging this week. I read twice today the Edwards couldn't afford to hire 20 of Gep's staffers in MO. Dean supporters are still donating, but without commercials airing, it'll be tough to compete.

[mikehiggins]

10. I find that Missouri number odd

Missouri only really opened for business when Gephardt quit. Has the Gephardt campaign joined in with Kerry?

That would be unpleasant for the rest of us, though only really hurtful in MO.

This is where the shortened primary season is working against us. The Kerry momentum, combined with the Dean internal troubles, makes the tall guy hard to beat in a lot of places. We'll have to see how this plays out.

It's going to be a rough couple of weeks right now but at least the candidates don't have to struggle through the winter cold.

Oh, what's that? Snow? In the Carolinas?

Jeeze! We just can't get a break ;^)

[SimpleMan]

11. I don't know about the other states...

...but in MO, republicans and independents can (and do a lot) vote in the democratic primary. Since the poll seems to only include democrats, it doesn't consider at least 66% of the likely voters.

[markus]

14. Kerry must win MO decisively

or his much vaunted "electability" argument will become the new dog frisbee of the Cable News Class.

It is, to my knowledge, the only open primary on the 3rd. (Frankly, ND is pretty close. You basically walk up and if you have some ID showing you live in the district, and you don't have Bush/Chenney tatooed on your forehead, you pretty much get to vote.

Come to think of it, we better station a couple of people in the parking lot to keep an eye on those bumper stickers. I'd love to catch some republicans trying to freep the primary.

[TheDonkey]

17. Kerry needs to get a very solid second or better in SC

to close the "he hates the south" "unelectable" talking points used in our own party against him.

North Dakota is REALLY up for graps, around 40% undecided still.

MO and DL probably for Kerry, Arizona still open.

[democratreformed]

21. Wrong. Arkansas has an open primary as well n/t

[nickinSTL]

15. in MO, republicans and independents can (and do a lot) vote in the democra

This is a great point.

I've actually been really surprised at Kerry's strong showing in MO.

I'm the only Kerry supporter I know personally in MO (I know there're 1 or 2 on the boards here) I hear a lot more about Dean than anyone else.

[sistersofmercy]

20. I went to the Kerry rally Wednesday and there was an estimated

5000 people who showed up. Huge turnout, great crowd. so many not everyone got in.

[ProfessorPlum]

16. DE? Not if I can help it

PP

[Mobius]

18. undecided and Edwards are ahead.

SC:
Carol Moseley Braun NI 1% 1% 4% 5% 3% 3% NI
Wesley Clark 0% 0% 0% 7% 17% 15% 12% 14%
Howard Dean 2% 2% 3% 6% 7% 9% 16% 9%
John Edwards 8% 7% 10% 16% 10% 7% 8% 21%
Dick Gephardt 11% 9% 8% 5% 7% 7% 7% NI
John Kerry 1% 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 17%
Dennis Kucinich NI 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Joe Lieberman 22% 19% 14% 7% 8% 9% 7% 5%
Al Sharpton 4% 3% 4% 5% 5% 9% 12% 15%
Undecided 51% 47% 48% 42% 36% 32% 29% 18%

Arizona:

Carol Moseley Braun 0% NI
Wesley Clark 15% 21%
Howard Dean 26% 10%
John Edwards 1% 15%
Dick Gephardt 7% NI
John Kerry 6% 24%
Dennis Kucinich 1% 0%
Joe Lieberman 9% 7%
Al Sharpton 0% 0%
Undecided 35% 23%
NI = Not included

Kerry first yes, with Clark and undecided a really really close second. Hardly any evidence sewing up the south.

Oklahoma:

Carol Moseley Braun 1% NI
Wesley Clark 21% 23%
Howard Dean 24% 8%
John Edwards 3% 18%
Dick Gephardt 4% NI
John Kerry 2% 17%
Dennis Kucinich 1% 1%
Joe Lieberman 9% 10%
Al Sharpton 1% 1%
Undecided 34% 22%
NI= Not included
Here we see
clark in the lead with undecided a close second.

I dont know if this thread was to show Keery was in the lead, but Kerry MOST CLEARLY IS NOT IN THE LEAD.

[Mobius]

19. No they dont

I think you may beed to recheck that site. De and MO arent even there!