Can the Repubs hold on to the House if Bush loses in a landslide ?

[kentuck]

By "landslide", I mean something like 56% to 44% or worse. If that were the difference in the presidential race, that would mean that many Congressional races would be affected by those numbers. The DNC should be making sure every district in this nation has a candidate because it may happen that the Democrat wins in a landslide. If those numbers were to take place, Democrats would probably win 40-50 seats nationwide.

For those thta migh think it is impossible, all one needs to do is look at what is happening? Even in NH primary, Bush only got 85% of the vote. Today, the Repubs are "retreating" to Philadelphia and the reports are that many of them are about to mutiny over the historically large deficits, the changes in the cost of the new Medicare program of Bush's, and the uncontrolled spending of these so-called conservatives. Yes, it could happen. They are starting to bleed and they have nothing to stop the bleeding.

[trotsky]

1. Sadly, I doubt Repukes will lose control.

Republicans in control in many, many places in 2002 made sure that when it came time to redraw Congressional district lines, they were very favorable to the Republican party.

[tedoll78]

2. Not sure.

If I were a betting man, I'd say that the GOP keeps the House.

Still though, it's looking good this far away from Election Day. If Kerry is the nominee (disclosure: I am neutral at this point), and if current polls hold, he's tied with Bush. Add to this the fact that our base is really friggin' fired-up; the record turnouts in IA & NH have the Freepers sweating big-time. And if he can chip-off 1% from veterans, and if we can convince/disillusion 2 or 3% of the GOP base to stay at home because of Bush's big spending, we could stand a really good chance at getting back both the White House and the Senate.

[Wild Bill]

3. How many did we pick up when Bob Dole lost?

didn't he lose by that margin? I belive we picked up some seats then.

[AntiCoup2K4]

4. If you want Bush to lose in a landslide

...Better make sure the nominee is someone who didn't vote for his fascist agenda.

[auntpattywatty]

5. I think if Bush should really go down, a lot others will go with him!

[IowaBiker]

6. If we can tie them to an intellegence cover up, then maybe.

9/11 and WMDs are two intellegence disasters.

What's the next one?

If we can convince voters that the CIA can't be cleaned up without an open, bi-partisan independant investigation, and the Rebpublican party is standing in the way of that investigation, then there is a real good chance to get rid of them.

Right now it appears as though there has been no serious effort to correct the mistakes, and we are in danger of them repeating the mistakes. That is a defect in national security which can be used against the forces of darkness and evil.

--Brian

[kentuck]

7. I think we need to convince those conservative Repub voters that....

George W Bush and this Administration are not "conservatives" like them. They are radical "neo-cons" with visions of a New World Order and they are not equipped to balance the budget or to get control of these huge deficits they have created. We need to plan that seed of doubt in their minds. They are only looking for validation of their present concerns. We need to reinforce their beliefs that George W Bush is not a "real" conservative. That is a way to fight their dirty tactics of ridiculing and name-calling.

[jbfam4]

10. Kentuck,

I like the way you think. This same idea,by GOP callers, into Washington Journal was expressed over and over again today. Most of them said they would still vote for Bush*, sad to say. Others are looking for a third party.

[jbfam4]

8. excellent points

and this is exactly what I am going to tell my GOP congressman. If he doesn't call for an investigation into the way the intelligence was used in going to war.......he is toast.

[Gman]

9. Redistricting has changed a lot

It would have to be in states that the Dem nominee carries. I think its conceivable and possible, but not likely. I think the more likely scenario is the Dems picking up 5 or maybe 10 seats and cutting their majority down.

[kentuck]

13. How many of those "re-districted" seats could Repubs win with 44%?

..turnout? Re-districting can give a certain advantage to one Party or the other but there just aren't enough Republicans to carry those districts unless they get a specific turnout. It is not a guaranteed win.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. We'll have an easier time in the Senate.

[DocSavage]

12. Holding Both Houses

I have conservative friends that have it all planned out if Bush looses. Both houses stay republican, I agree with that. If Kerry is elected, Gov. Romney will appoint a republican to fill his seat. Sure to pi&& us off, but... That will make the majority in the Senate bigger. They are already waiting for the first judicial nomination. Prepare for a filibuster. Their thoughts are, hey, good for you, good for us.

No Budget will get thru. Never mind any tax increases. I think that they will treat our nominee as a lame duck for 4 years. It is going to be very ugly.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

14. If this happens...

And they throw the country into gridlock, it will only last two years, or until the recall elections start, whichever comes first.

[snippy]

15. Republicans would be more likely to lose the Senate than the House

if Bush lost in a huge landslide. In the late 90's the RNC made winning state governor and legislative seats its highest priority so that republicans would have the maximum amount of control of redistricting following the 2000 census. The republican strategy included creating not only safe republican seats but also pulling widely separated democratic precincts into one tortously convoluted district to create an overwhelmingly safe democratic seat. In other words they deliberately tried to concentrate the democratic vote. That strategy was tremendously successful. The recent Texas redistricting followed this strategy also.

[dolstein]

16. Bush isn't going to lose in a landslide

If the Democrats are extremely lucky, they could win the popular vote by a percentage point or two. I consider that a best case scenario. And frankly, if Kerry becomes the nominee, we'd be lucky to lose by only five points.

Honestly, I wish more DU'ers had a better grasp of reality.

[creativelcro]

17. Not gonna happen!