What can be done about "Sheeple bounces"

[_Jumper_]

After Iowa Kerry went from 7% in national polls to 29% overnight. The same thing has occurred in state polls. What can be done to prevent sheeple, who support whomever they are told to support, from deciding who our nominee is? This is a joke. A guy wins one or two states and suddenly he is on the verge of effectively winning the nomination. We here at DU study the issues and candidates and our voice is drowned in a sea of people voting because they saw "that guy who won" for 15 seconds on TV.

[slinkerwink]

1. here's what roy neel, the campaign manager for dean, said....

Roy Neel: Where We Go From Here
This campaign has always defied conventional wisdom. Our extraordinary rise last year defied conventional wisdom—so did our fall in Iowa, and so did our comeback in New Hampshire after most pundits predicted Howard Dean was finished.

Conventional wisdom has been consistently wrong about this race.

So when conventional wisdom says a candidate must win somewhere on February 3, or that John Kerry will have wrapped up the nomination after fewer than 10% of the delegates have been chosen, we disagree.

Our goal for the next two and a half weeks is simple—become the last-standing alternative to John Kerry after the Wisconsin primary on February 17.

Why Wisconsin? First, it is a stand-alone primary where we believe we can run very strong. Second, it kicks off a two-week campaign for over 1,100 delegates on March 2, and the shift of the campaign that month to nearly every big state: California, New York, and Ohio on March 2, Texas and Florida on March 9, Illinois on March 16, and Pennsylvania on April 27.

In the meantime, Howard Dean is traveling to many of the February 3 states, sending surrogates—including Al Gore—to most, and conducting radio interviews in all. We believe that one or more of our major opponents will be eliminated that day, and that the others will fall by the wayside as our strength grows in the following days. As a result we have elected to not buy television advertisements in February 3 states, but instead direct our resources toward the February 7 and 8 contests in Michigan, Washington and Maine. We may not win any February 3 state, but even third place finishes will allow us to move forward, continue to amass delegates in Virginia and Tennessee on February 10, and then strongly challenge Kerry in Wisconsin.

Regardless of who takes first place in these states, we think that after Wisconsin we’ll get Kerry in the open field. Remember one crucial thing about the 2004 calendar—in previous years a front-runner or presumptive nominee would typically emerge after most of the states had voted and most of the delegates had been chosen. The final competitor to that candidate, even if he won late states, as many have done, has not been able to win a majority of delegates under any scenario.

This year is very different. The media and the party insiders will attempt to declare Kerry the winner on February 3 after fewer than 10% of the state delegates have been chosen. At that point Kerry himself will probably have claimed fewer than one third of the delegates he needs to win. They would like the campaign to be over before the voters of California, New York, Texas and nearly every other big state have spoken.

Democrats in Florida, who witnessed a perversion of democracy in November 2000, will not have a choice concerning the nominee if the media and the party insiders have their way.

We intend to make this campaign a choice. We alone of the remaining challengers to John Kerry are geared to the long haul—we’ve raised nearly $2 million in the week after Iowa, over $600,000 in the 48 hours since New Hampshire. No candidate—not even Kerry, who mortgaged his house and tapped his personal fortune to funnel $7 million into his campaign —will have sufficient funds to advertise in all, or even most, of the big states that fall on March 2 and beyond. At that point paid advertising becomes much less of a factor.

And we alone of the remaining challengers offer a clear choice to Kerry. Howard Dean is no Johnny Come Lately to the message of change—he has actually delivered change in Vermont. Howard Dean has the courage and conviction to stand up for what’s right, even when it’s not politically popular, as opposed to the cautiousness, compromise and convenience that has characterized John Kerry’s 19 years in the Senate.

We believe that when the voters of the post-Wisconsin states—which constitute 75% of the delegates that will be chosen in the states—compare Howard Dean and John Kerry, they will conclude that Dean, not Kerry, has the best chance to beat George Bush, because only Dean offers a clear vision of change and a record of results that contrasts against the rhetoric emanating from Washington. We believe they will increasingly reject the rubber stamp presented to them by the media.

Has such a strategy ever worked before?

No. It's never been tried.

But prior to this year, no candidate had ever raised $46 million dollars, mostly from ordinary Americans giving $100 each. Prior to this year no candidate for President had ever inspired the kind of grass-roots activity that has been this campaign’s hallmark. Prior to this year no candidate for President had so clearly revitalized his party, allowed it to reclaim its voice, and shifted the agenda so clearly to a call for change.

Let the conventional wisdom and the media declare this race over. We’re going to let the people decide.

Roy Neel
Chief Executive Officer
Dean for America

[LiberalBushFan]

2. the answer is not much

because sheeple bounces have their effects even an places like DU, where we expect ourselves to be above the media (how many Kerry supporters did you see here before Iowa?)

[pacifictiger]

9. sheeple will be sheeple

all we can hope to do is buck the trend by coming out of left field. If you've ever watched sheep, that can be a quite effective strategy. Perhaps a few would be willing to learn to become independent thinkers along the way, with the rest of the flock following them for a change.

[patricia92243]

10. I think this Roy Neal is going to breath new air into Dean's campaign, and

we will win - much to a lot of people's surprise.

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

33. If nothing else

Roy Neal possesses immense testicular fortitude.

[Leilani]

11. I agree

I am really pissed off at the sheeple. They know nothing about the candidates, their positions, etc.

And the media doesn't help a whole lot. They talked only about Dean, then slammed him down, & keep slamming him. Now they've decided Kerry is the front runner, & that's all they talk about. Clark, they ignored, & then the RNC & Fox went after him, & now they're back to ignoring him again.

It seems no matter what we do, our voices are not heard, & we will be presented with a candidate.

[lastknowngood]

3. Remember nobody get's a sheeple bounce like

the shrub via his good puppy press.

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. would you say they were sheep if Dean won?

No, of course not. They'd be astute voters who came to their decision based on the merit's of Dean's positions on issues.

Right?

Right?

[_Jumper_]

7. Yes I would...

...if he received an overnight bounce the size Kerry has received.

[foo_bar]

24. how did Dean get his initial double digit leads?

I suspect "the media" had a tiny part to play.

[krkaufman]

29. DingDingDingDingDingDingDingDingDing

> would you say they were sheep if Dean won?

> Yes I would...if he received an overnight bounce
> the size Kerry has received.

Thank you.

> After Iowa Kerry went from 7% in national polls
> to 29% overnight.

This 22-point jump is NOT WHOLLY because the people across the nation considered his policies or experience better than anyone elses; he won Iowa and was getting more positive press. Simply that.

Kerry's just fortunate enough that his positive press bubble is happening at the time that opinion gets transferred to votes.

[kaitykaity]

14. People did not 'not' vote for Dean because of his positions

on the issues.

They didn't vote for Dean because they were convinced by the media whores that Dean was not 'electable'. The media magnified and extrolled Dean's 'gaffes' and 'mistakes', etc., etc., ad nauseum. Whether you want to admit it or not, Dean got 'Gored' and Kerry's been getting nothing but puff jobs.

Plus, in Iowa, Dean and Gephardt eviscerated each other, allowing Kerry and Edwards to slide on up.

[NashVegas]

5. Get Rid of the Caucus/Primary Method

And return to the back-room horse trading.

reasons outlined here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=233754

[girl gone mad]

6. How did Reagan do it..

in 1980?

I don't know the answer, but I think that bit of history might hold some clues.

All I know is, you just can't give up.

[mlawson]

15. You mean the primaries, or the GE??

After 24 years if hating the man, I can see it more clearly now: Ronnie had that 'thing', IT, that people thought they could connect with. They *thought* he understood them, almost at a personal level. They associated him with optimism, hope, and a change from the present course, which was led by Pres Carter. Of course this was wrong, but you could NOT have convinced the average, non-political voter of that, if your life had depended upon it.

So, we need another such personality this year, to do for us what Ronnie did for the Repukes. But, it ain't gonna happen, now. :-(

[AntiCoup2K4]

25. How did Reagan do it? Look at his cabinet.

Only Don Regan was a long term Reagan associate. The rest of the team were old cronies of George Bush Sr. It was a merger that allowed the Bush Criminal Empire to take over the White House directly - as opposed to in the background as they were in the Nixon and Eisenhower administrations - with the full blessings (no pun intended) of Reagan's base in the Religious Right.

[mlawson]

8. Um, Jumper, if you change away from the word, 'sheeple',

you will get a more positive response to your post. :-)

To answer your question, nothing. The die is cast, IMO, and I am depressed about it, too.

[pacifictiger]

17. lets call a spade a spade.

You think that sheeple isn't accurate for this non thinking, media hypnotized crowd? If you have ever spent any time around sheep, the behavioural similarity is too striking to ignore. Even Jesus realized that too many people are swayed by popular opinion when he referred to his "flock." He was good with metaphors.

[mlawson]

18. It's that 'sheeple' has a lot of negative connatations here.

Do you want to convert them, or piss them off?? I prefer the former.

[_Jumper_]

21. They don't read DU

If they did they wouldn't switch candidates based on a single headline or a 15 second TV clip.

[QC]

27. Actually that's not why Jesus used the metaphor of a shepherd

and his flock, and the condescending attitude that has one dismiss most of the world as "sheeple" kills us at the polls by reinforcing the popular stereotype of the "know-it-all liberal elitist."

And, as others have pointed out, this thread is nothing more than yet another sour grapes festival, and if Dean had jumped suddenly in the polls it would be considered a sign of the electorate's great wisdom.

I'm not a Kerry supporter, but if I were I think I would have just about had a bellyful by now of all this business about how all of his voters are just brainwashed fools who can be taken in by Tom Brokaw and a strategically placed campaign sign.

[_Jumper_]

31. Dean?

Ask Dean supporters how pro-Dean I am. ;)

[displacedtexan]

12. "Sheeple" didn't win Iowa or NH for Kerry.

This has been a top down campaign, run by a respected US Senator with three decades of experience. His personal network of civic leaders and elected officials (and the nation's firefighters and millions of forgotten veterans from an unpopular war) delivered the votes.

Dean is great, and I expected his grassroots campaign to win both Iowa and NH, but his $43 million and 500,000 supporters didn't deliver the vote.

Blaming the media or the "establishment" or even Kerry supporters won't deliver votes. Joe Trippi should have known how the game is played: he's been involved in many campaigns. The one with the most votes wins.

I wish Dean and his supporters luck, and I will gladly vote for him if he wins the nomination.

[_Jumper_]

19. They arguably won NH for him

Where was he in NH polls prior to his Iowa victory? That being said, Dean also received a major "sheeple bounce" after the Gore endorsement.

[DemBones DemBones]

13. It may be that people watched the debates and other

coverage and decided on Kerry for the right reasons, not just because he won in Iowa and NH. I'd like that to be the case for most of them.

But a lot of people do want to be on the winning team, so they'll support the guy with the high poll numbers whether they like him or not, whether they know his positions on issues ore not.

We need to convince everyone that the Dem nominee is the one to support in November.

[_Jumper_]

20. He went from 7% nationally to 29% overnight after Iowa

Either he gave the victory speech of a lifetime or the sheeple flocked to him.

[MidwestMomma]

26. Yes, how do you explain that except to accept that the average voter

is easily manipulated by the media? The American people have been conditioned to accept the media tells the truth and it appears the experiment was a success.

[blm]

57. Ever occur to you the media was pumping up Dean artificially for months?

And downgrading Kerry and Edwards unfairly JUST to dry up their fundraising?

[_Jumper_]

60. Relevance?

A Sheeple Bounce is a Sheeple Bounce regardless of who receives it. Dean received one after the Gore endorsement and arguably as the result of immense media coverage. What does that have to do with the issue at hand?

[MrSlayer]

16. Sadly nothing.

This has been bothering the hell out of me as well. I think it's disgusting and deplorable. Everyone deserves a fair shake but not everyone gets one. Life isn't fair, politics are even less fair.

[mlawson]

22. I know I am Johnny One Note, here, but

this reminds me so very much of 1984, when suddenly the Party decided on Mondale, instead of Gary Hart. (This was before Donna Rice, BTW.) Maybe no one could have beaten Ronnie that year, but we have a good chance this time, with Clark, Edwards or Dean!!!! I just can't comprehend it.

[scheming daemons]

30. This is 1984, 1996, 2000 all over again...

In 1984, the Democrats had a candidate who caught fire and was energizing the populous. They destroyed him (with help from himself) and went with the "safe", establishment candidate.

..and we got the worst Presidential candidate in half a century (and that's saying a lot) in Walter Mondale.

In 1996, the repukes decided to go with the safe, establishment candidate because it was "his turn". They got Bob Dole, the worst campaigner the Republicans have had in generations.

In 2000, the repukes had a firebrand who was enthusiastically revving up the crowds with his "straight talk" and better yet, he was wowing the media too. The Repuke establishment decided he must be destroyed, so they passed out flyers in SC saying he fathered a "child of color" and started a whispering campaign about his mental health and got their buddies in the executive suites of the news networks to get the coverage turned around... and they propped up chimp-boy.

And now the Democratic voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have decided that we need a tired, old Bob Dole clone of our own... not the same in policy positions mind you, but in mannerisms, tone, and style. John Kerry doesn't excite anyone south of the Catskill mountains.

And the Democrats are looking at a 1988 style whuppin'.

...and it is depressing as hell.



Please people... Edwards or Clark are our only chances in November - and their chances are small. Kerry's chances are as nil as Dean's.

[Kathleen04]

23. "Sheeple bounces" are somewhat inevitable..

One thing that would help would be if there were more time for the "dust to settle" afterwards.

If we all had our primaries on the same day, most likely we'd end up with whoever the media donned the frontrunner.

And we also have the problem of polls driving a candidate's success rather than measuring it..

In short, I'm not sure how to change it.

[arewethereyet]

28. more than you would believe

this is a popularity contest and its worse in the GE. But its even more than that.

People see a tide rising and realize that sometime for the benefit of the party its better to let that tide roll than to fight it.

A split descision next week will allow things to get to Super Tuesday still open to possibilities.

But one thing about tides, there is no point in fighting them, you can only ride them.

[DjTj]

32. Don't 'dis the sheeple...

The sheeple are the ones that are too busy to do as much research as we do.

The sheeple are busy earning their paychecks and supporting their families.

The sheeple are raising their kids and trying to save for the future...

The Democratic party should do all it can to help the sheeple. We can do our part by getting our message out to local papers, by knocking on doors, or by talking to people in the real world.

The sheeple may not have time to be as *educated* as we think we all are, but we can take the time to teach them.

Don't 'dis the sheeple. The sheeple are our friends.

[QC]

34. Well said!

:kick:

[incapsulated]

38. Those pics are great!

He really is the teen idol candidate!

(I knew he looked familiar) ;)

[_Jumper_]

48. Should they be electing presidents?

Should those with no knowledge of the candidates and issues be deciding who runs the free world? If I were uninformed I would refrain from voting.

[DjTj]

51. One person. One vote.

This is a fundamental premise of Presidential politics in this country.

If we can spend so much time reading about the issues, we should be willing to spend some of that time explaining our case to those who don't have that luxury.

It is elitist to think that only some people are qualified to vote. Everyone is entitled to a vote. If a politican is able to speak in a way that regular people can understand, that should be considered a virtue.

The government is for all people, not just for those of us who think we're more informed than anyone else.

[WilliamPitt]

63. Oh fer God's sake

:eyes:

[YNGW]

35. More than DUers study the issues.

>We here at DU study the issues and candidates and our voice is drowned in a sea of people voting because they saw "that guy who won" for 15 seconds on TV.

While momentum plays a part, I don't believe you can say this is true across the board. And you can't say people aren't studying the issues. Maybe they are and they just like Kerry more. DU is more left-leaning that the average Democrat. Just look at the Kucinich supporters here compared to how he's getting votes. There's not a plurality of moderates here at DU, and most Democrats are moderates.

Somebody had a thread earlier in the week about "Is DU becoming more right-wing" or something like that, and I commented that it's probably just more Democrats finding this place since the primaries are heating up, and most Democrats are moderates. So, compared to the more left-wing Dems who hang out here, it just seems more right-wing than usual.

[lurk_no_more]

36. Who really cares

Kerry won and won big, congratulations John Kerry.

IMO Kerry bounced big from Iowa because folks in NH looked closer at the others after Iowa and decided that yes, Kerry was more electable and a better candidate.

Rather than Kerry's bounce coming out of Iowa, what caused Kerry's rise in Iowa when he was predicted DOA a week before? It wasn't the media trashing dean, hell the media already had Kerry DOA, how much more trashed then that could dean get?

Contrary to popular (at least here on DU) belief, the voters in Iowa and NH aren't as dumb as folks think, they take their voting serious and given the facts chose wisely.

Kerry did great in both IA and NH and saying it was because of sheeple media followers is simply sour grapes, instead of blaming the voters for being brainwashed, blame the other candidates for not getting the voters attention enough to be #1.


And then there were none!
” JAFO”

[_Jumper_]

43. Who really cares?

Do you want people to decide elections based on 15 second TV clips?

Kerry is not the issue here. The issue is people voting for someone simply because that candidate is the flavor of the week.

[retyred]

49. So what is it you want?

A test to see if your smart enough to vote? A questionair of each and every issue from each and every candidate? What?


retyred in fla
“Good-Night Paul, Wherever You Are”
So I read this book

[incapsulated]

52. To grow a goddamn brain...

And vote for my candidate! :)

That penguin is hypnotizing, btw.

[iowapeacechief]

53. Iowans did a lot homework, too.

Thanks for noticing!

I've been reading all these "sheeple" replies claiming DU's Kerry critics are the wise ones. As a Kucinich supporter who saw most of the candidates up close several times, I must say Iowans did not go for Kerry just because our Dem elected officials or party leaders said so.

In fact, that complaint is really funny coming from Dean supporters who worked so hard at getting their own bounces from endorsements. If the sheeple thing had worked in Iowa, don't you suppose Harkin, Gore, and Bradley (and plenty of lesser lights) could have pulled it off?

Kerry's Iowa boost wasn't a media invention; he and his campaign finally got it together and earned it.

As for objecting to media anointments, who deserves more frustration than Kucinich backers? Oh well...

[_Jumper_]

55. Kerry isn't the issue

The size of his post-Iowa bounce is. A similar thing happened with Dean after the Gore endorsement, although on a smaller scale.

[incapsulated]

37. That's the how the game is played

Unless and until they change the primary system, the bumps and the media have an absurd amount of influence.

It's still not over yet, though.

[democratreformed]

39. Oh please tell me if you have any ideas.

I am getting so discouraged by this.

[_Jumper_]

46. Caucases are probably the most feasible alternative

At least there you have people who are generally well-informed voting. That is probably the best we can do. We can't give voters a test to deterime their knowledge or anything else to weed out the people voting on issues from the rest.

[David Dunham]

40. Dean will be gone soon unless he wins a primary soon

[Kathleen04]

41. Ummm...how does this relate to the topic at hand? n/t

[Zomby Woof]

42. if that is what it is

Don't think for a moment any of the others wouldn't have benefited from a similar "sheeple bounce" (great democratic ideal there) if he had won.

[_Jumper_]

44. Correct

We saw a similar thing happen with Dean and the Gore endorsement.

Great democratic ideal? ZombyWoof, these people control our fates! All Shrub has to do is a minor PR stunt and he'll be re-elected by them!

[Clark Can WIN]

45. Sheep bounce? Is that what happens when

one of these fellows falls?

[DjTj]

47. Download your own sheeple...

http://come.to/esheep

[isbister]

50. Field stronger candidates

and give the sheeple a tougher choice.

For example, how much different would this race have been if we had Kerry, Gore, and maybe Biden running?

[_Jumper_]

54. No different

They would have supported whomever the media backed. Bozo the clown could get elected president if he had media backing!

[jpgpenn]

56. I call them the "come home crowd"

they come home from work, flick on the tv, hear so ans so's name batted around and then go along with it.

[Freddie Stubbs]

58. Freepers have been usuing the term "sheeple" before DU existed

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3a3323de2f5f.htm

Nice to see that we are learning from them.

[sangha]

59. Sour grapes

produce bitter whines

If Dean had won, would you think of American citizens as "sheeple"?

[_Jumper_]

61. Absolutely...

...if he received a fraudlent bounce like he did after the Gore endorsement, Clark received when he joined the race, and Kerry has received recently.

[Freddie Stubbs]

62. How exactly is a bounce "fraudlent ?"

:shrug: