Dean Leads in AZ, Tied with Clark in OK (ARG)

[dajabr]

Howard Dean leads with 26% among likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona. Dean is followed by Wesley Clark at 15%.

In Oklahoma, Dean is at 24% and Clark is at 21% - a virtual tie.

The other major candidates have ballot preferences in single digits in both states. Also, 35% of primary voters in Arizona and 34% of primary voters in Oklahoma are undecided.

Details are at: http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Next up: Daily tracking in NH starts Dec 26, with the first results available Dec 29.

[Cheswick2.0]

1. great news

thanks

[chimpymustgo]

2. Undecided still kicking *ss.

Across the board.

[Zynx]

3. Undecided usually breaks evenly rather than all one way.

[SahaleArm]

28. Hmmm - That doesn't explain

the susa polls, where undecided's were threatened with electric shock. Seems that the split didn't quite go evenly. I'll also point to also the favorable/unfavorables favor Clark are strong while name awareness is lower.

[liberalnurse]

7. The sample pool

has not yet awaken to the political process. They are waiting for the Christmas Holidays to be over.......Things will be more reflective one the attention factor kicks in....

Dean's grass-root supports are busting butt and will overwhelm any of the "late comers" .

[Tom Rinaldo]

8. It's not the Undecideds who will make the difference

It is the backers of candidates who seem to be falling out of the running plus the undecideds who can make a difference. That is the reason why the situation still is fluid. A 9 person field has not started to narrow yet. Clark is doing well at his uderdog game plan, which in essense is to be more viable than anyone other than Dean by the time people are voting in those contests.

[slinkerwink]

4. awesome!!!!!!

GO DEAN!!!! :bounce:

[floridaguy]

5. Clark is surging - Dean is fading

A year-long head start goes a long way, but as people really start to compare the two candidates, and consider who can really beat George Bush, the tides are turning.

Every day Dean says or does something he has to apologize for or try to explain. At the same time, Wesley Clark is gathering supporters everywhere he goes, because he has the leadership and qualifications it takes to lead this country, and he CAN beat George Bush.

If I was a Dean supporter, I would be hoping the election was tomorrow. Wouldn't that be a Christmas present?

Instead, voters will have more opportunity to consider who has the best opportunity to beat George Bush.

In the end, if rational minds succeed, Clark will get the nomination, and a Democrat will be back in Washington.

And I don't even have to wish for a Christmas miracle, I just have to hope there's enough time and rational Democratic voters.

Happy Holidays everyone! Good luck to all Democrats in 2004!

[Zynx]

6. I agree about Clark doing better, but so is Dean.

Dean has never led in Oklahoma before.

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. I agree that Dean isn't fading.

He hasn't locked up the nomination, but he is not fading.

[HFishbine]

11. Clark's Surge

Sounds more like Bush double-speak.

ABC News/Washington Post Poll
(newest to oldest)

Dean: 31, 20, 17, 17, 15
Clark: 7, 7, 14, 14, 6

Newsweek POll
(newest to oldest)

Dean: 26, 24, 16, 13, 15, 10
Clark: 15, 12, 15, 13, 12, 15

[liberalnurse]

12. Yea, Dean is fading like a rocket ship

to Mars. Folks ain't seen nothing yet. The grass roots effort of the Dean supporters are in full force. Just go to the web site. No other candidate even comes close to such leadership.

[deminflorida]

9. People losing People gaining...

Gephardt and Lieberman lose combined 10% points nationally, Dean goes up two and Clark up 3....Kerry increases 1 (that = 6). Don't know increases 6%.

South Carolina, Arizona, and Oklahoma voters sizing up the field. Nothing to brag about here.... the moderate votes loses goes to Clark and Kerry in the form of 4% points, Dean picks up 2%, but so does Sharpton probably from support in S.C.


Newsweek gives Liberman the bad news -- the crocodile tears are helping him no longer. Poll conducted 12/18-19. MoE 6%. (12/11-12 results in parenthesis)
Dean 26 (24)
Don't Know 20 (14)
Clark 15 (12)
Lieberman 7 (12)
Sharpton 7 (5)
Kerry 6 (5)
Gephardt 5 (10)
Edwards 5 (5)
Braun 1 (3)
Kucinich 1 (2)

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

13. More great news for Dean

You can't ignore the trends! Everywhere, Dean's doing well, improving his numbers, and leading the pack.

[Zinsipperlover]

14. Excellent

On top of a potential major upcoming endorsement, I will say Dr. Dean is going to have a very happy holiday.

:party:

[RevolutionStartsNow]

15. AZ

Expect Dean to go even higher there, he's got a lot of people on the ground right now knocking on doors.

[Desertrose]

16. there are always surprises...

don't count Kucinich out...trust me...I hear things...just don't count him out....

Peace
DR

[Zomby Woof]

18. I have YET to meet a Dean supporter

Judging by my own downtown business census, DK's supporters outnumber Dean's by 4-1! Small businesses in Flagstaff trust DK, and I think it would be wise if the rest of the state, and America, caught on to why this is so. :hi:

[Desertrose]

24. I agree Zomby

I am with ya there...
:hi:

Did you see DK qualified for matching funds?
WAHOO!

Peace :)
DMom

[Zomby Woof]

29. Weeeeee!

:loveya:

[goobergunch]

17. kick

:kick:

[dfong63]

19. but OK is the state where Clark was supposed to kick Dean's ass

did someone forget to tell the OK voters?

[shivaji]

20. ABC/Wash Post national poll 12/21.....Dean 31%,,,,,Clark 7%

n/t

[poskonig]

21. Finally kicking butt on Clark's turf

In addition to the recent SC poll, I'm a very happy Dean supporter!

:bounce:

[MGKrebs]

22. Let's do some math!

Meaningless, but better than watching Knott's Landing.

Using the numbers from this poll only, in these three states, let's see if we can pretend to identify which candidates are most likely to drop out. Then we have to determine which, if any, of the other candidates those supporters are predisposed to back.

Ranking each the poll results from 1 to 9 (1 being for the leader), and then adding the 3 gives us:

CMB= 9+8+7=24=9th
WC= 2+2+2= 6= 2nd
HD= 1+1+1= 3 = 1st
JE= 6+5+4= 15= 5th
DG= 4+4+6= 14= 4th
JK= 5+6+8= 19= 6th
DK= 7+7+9= 23= 8th
JL= 3+3+5= 11= 3rd
AS= 8+9+3= 20= 7th

Let's just arbitrarily assume that 5 will eventually drop out, leaving 4 to battle it out to the end. Going by these numbers, CMB, DK, AS, JK, and JE won't be around in June. So..

To whom are the supporters of these candidates likely to go to?

(No disrespect to any of the candidates ot their supporters. I'm just bored, and somebody ELSE brought up candidates dropping out.)

[askew]

26. I'll play.

This is a fun idea. Here is what I think would happen:

I think Dean would pick most of the DK supporters, as I know a lot of DK supporters who list Dean as their second choice.

I think Clark would pick up most of Kerry's supporters, as I think they appeal to a lot of the same voters. The remainder may end up with DG.

I think Gephardt would pick up most of Edwards' supporters, as I think they have similar appeal.

As for CMB and AS, I am not sure who would pick up these supporters. I would guess Dean and Clark would split these supporters.

[MGKrebs]

27. Cool. Here's mine.

Bulk of Sharpton supporters go to Gep .
CMB people (both of them!)- might go to Dean. Not sure why, maybe because he's a doctor.
Edwards- will go to Clark. Southern boys stick together.
Kerry- split between Gep and Lieberman. Should go to Dean, but too much damage will have been done.
DK- most go to Gep. Trade, unions, etc.

Doesn't look good for the Doctor! But a more likely scenario is that we will have a clear frontrunner by March, and any candidates who drop out will throw their support to him or her, and ask their supporters to do the same.

Also, I have a hard time believing that Kerry and Lieberman will last very long- Kerry morgaged his house already, and Lieberman can't pay his staff anymore.

[sleipnir]

23. Good bye Clark..

It's curtains for him now...

[DFLforever]

25. Dean pulling ahead in Clark country?

Congrats to all those hard-working Dean people in OK and AZ:toast: