CBS proves Dean can't win

[John_H]

this was locked earlier for punctuation, but the point of the story right on the mark.

<snip>

Some of Dean’s support may be due to his opposition to the war in Iraq, and more Democratic primary voters are looking for an anti-war rather than a pro-war candidate. 39% of Democratic primary voters say they would prefer a nominee who was opposed to the war, compared to 25% who prefer a nominee who supported it. But 33% say the Democratic nominee’s stance on the war in Iraq doesn’t matter to them.

However, among all voters that sentiment is reversed. 41% of registered voters would prefer a Democratic nominee who supported the war, while about half that number -- 22% -- are looking for an anti-war nominee.

<snip>

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/23/opinion/polls/main590018.shtml

This CBS data is bad news. Yup, this is trouble for my guy too (Clark), but he has the cradentials to make the case that he has the experience needed to keep america safe. For Dean, these numbers spell disaster.

[kstewart33]

1. I agree

Dean will be painted as unpatriotic, and the public will buy it. He doesn't have a chance.

[liberalnurse]

14. Delusional thinking there......

I recall him saying, "I want my country back". Apparently so does Al Gore.

[WiseMen]

The issues is much more profound. Dean is not QUALIFIED for these TIMES

Regardless of positioning and hoping for "Bad News," the questions
should be:

1. Does our candidate have the best credentials to address the current challeges facing our nation.
2. Is our candidate sufficiently invulnerable to oppostion attack to allow the party to launch a vigorous and positive campaign to take back the country from the grip of the Republicans.

In both cases the answer in negative for candidate DEAN. I am totally sympathetic to Dean's personal, political and strategic strenghts.
But it is not enought to overwhelmingly win the non-partisan middle vote that we need to take back the government. I am not looking for a squeeker!!

[Michigander4Dean]

26. Actually, here are the requirements to be President

• At least 35 years of age
  
• US citizen by birth
  
• US citizen for 14 years
  
• You should get 270 electoral votes in an election for President
  
• it wouldn't hurt if he wasn't, but it would certainly help if your brother is Governor of a state
  

Now, Granted, Dean's brother is not Governor of a state, but is Clark's?

[SharonAnn]

30. "W" isn't qualified for "these times"

and he's amply demonstrated it.

[AntiCoup2K4]

37. W isn't qualified for ANY times.

...except a life sentence of hard time in federal prison.

[polpilot]

59. Dean trounced Kerry. Why?? Because Dean is simply more qualified

to lead this country.

Dean '04...

[KittyWampus]

68. Where Did Dean Trounce Anyone?

no votes have been cast.

[felonious thunk]

2. The election is a year away

This is a poll taken now. You and CBS has no idea what the issues will end up being next year. I'm not a Dean supporter, but come on. This isn't "proof". It's a poll, and as we've seen, polls change quickly.

[LiberalBushFan]

53. yes, next year so will be different

some "terror" will happen and make things even harder for Dean to win.

[Kolesar]

3. "proves" ? How many months 'til the election?

[mourningdove92]

11. ksstewart brings up a very good point.

My brother, a repug fence sitter, made a comment to me in an email this past weekend, where he referred to Dean as an unpatiotic son of a b----. my reply is below:

I cannot believe you still like Shrub. WHERE DID I GO WRONG???? Bubba, that man is evil, and it breaks my heart that you cannot see that.
Why is Dean an unpatiotic son of a bitch? Because he DARED to say that we shouldn't be in Iraq? This is America, and person is supposed to be allowed to voice dissenting opinions....oops, I guess I forgot. I'm thinking of the America that I was raised in, not the America that your son will be raised in. You know the new America? Bush's America, where dissent is unpatriotic and all must worship at the feet of Shrub.
Is that what you want?
I still love you, but you are breaking my heart.

his answer back to me STILL did not explain why he felt the way he did about Dean, but he sure as hell backed off on the liking Bush part.


:dunce:

[ibegurpard]

4. This doesn't PROVE anything.

Unless you just got out of your time machine from a trip to November 2004.

[virtualobserver]

8. polls in 1999 and 2000 proved that Gore would lose by 20-25 points

My time machine has been acting up lately, but I was able to see President Chelsea Clinton in 2028. She looked great.

[billbuckhead]

5. Dean is defenseless against the media painting him as antiwar

Bill Scheneider did it yesterday and I hear it all the time from the talking heads. They rarely say Dean is anti Iraq war, just antiwar. This constant unanswered drumbeat is being used to tar Dean, his supporters and the Democratic party as pacifists.

[virtualobserver]

9. The last word that I would use to describle Dean is 'defenseless'

Dream on

[billbuckhead]

13. Then why does Dean allow the media to call him antiwar?

Where's the ad campaign? Where's the outrage? Where's the strategy?

[jonnyblitz]

22. anti war is a bad thing?

:shrug:

[bowens43]

39. How is this a bad thing?

You would prefer we give up our values just to beat bush?

[bearfartinthewoods]

58. the "permission" statemnt really hurt him and will come back to haunt

us all.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Clark first said he would have voted for IWR when first asked

so I don't see a problem for him anyway. And the fact that Bill Clinton said 2 weeks ago he would have voted for it is a significant barometer of sentiment on the issue.

[virtualobserver]

12. since he said that he would never have voted for it on the very next day

it might be a slight problem.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. Yeah, but 'the cat out of the bag' betrayed his true feelings

on the matter.

[UrbScotty]

7. For goodness sakes, WAKE UP!

How much does a 20-point lead matter ten and a half months before the election?

[ibegurpard]

10. About as much as endless ASSERTIONS

that Clark has some kind of magical immunity to GOP smears.

[billbuckhead]

15. It's impossible to call a general anti-war or weak on defense

They can say he'a war monger or a republican but that really doesn't hurt him in the general election.

[ibegurpard]

19. Tell that to Max Cleland

Yes, I realize he wasn't a General but he was a highly decorated triple-amuputee Vietnam veteran. They impugned his patriotism during the campaign and he lost. So, if we want to talk about anything remotely resembling EVIDENCE, that would indicate to me that a stellar military background is not going to provide the magic defense that so many would have us believe.

[MoonRiver]

31. Pukes also rigged the vote in Georgia.

That can never be forgotten, especially because WE are facing the same threat in 2004. There really is no bigger issue regardless of who the Dem candidate is.

[LuminousX]

25. lol naive much

[JohnKleeb]

29. impossible?

Wasn't that the man who ran against Ariel Sharon in the last Israeli election a former general. I think they could, Clark and any of them could be painted by Rove.

[JVS]

47. Actually that might encourage the regime to become more bellicose!

They could that they aren't soft on defense by invading every potential threat.

[plm135]

16. WHOMEVER

we nominate, is facing an uphill battle.

The sooner we face that the better, instead of trying to argue that our particular candidate has the magic pill to beat Bush.

[Michigander4Dean]

17. What experience does Clark have to keep America safe? (nt)

[pocoloco]

33. Pass the eggnog!

[Myra]

44. Hee hee! Someone was asleep for 34 years.

Rip Van Winkle...

[Michigander4Dean]

18. What experience does Clark have to keep America safe? (nt)

[Scoopie]

27. The ability to work with people

without calling the "cockroaches," for one thing.
For another, he actually has experience dealing with dictators and would-be assassins - and the diplomacy to know when to work with them and when to say, "Enough!"

[bowens43]

40. No he doesn't.

He's a man who is used to having his word be law. He has NO experience that translates to the kind of experience needed to be the leader of a civilian government. The last thing we need is a general in the oval office, it's a recipe for disaster.

[oasis]

60. "a general in the oval office ..a recipe for disaster"?? What kind of

disaster would be worse than Chimpboy letting 9/11 happen and then covering it up by implementing Patriot Acts I and II?

[pansypoo53219]

32. what experience

DOES GOERGE HAVE?!?

[markus]

21. Not true

Not that I'm sure anybody cares....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=24145

[LuminousX]

23. CBS offers a 'proof' of Dean's unelectability

But does not prove it. The only way to 'prove' it is to test it.

Ask CBS point blank if they think Dean will lose and they will hem and haw. This is just a bit a analysis that is put out to create a story.

[Patriot_Spear]

24. Did CBS hire Nostrodamus?

Otherwise this is poop.

[Zomby Woof]

43. no, Nostradamus posts here on DU

Since I see hundreds of mystical predictions every day ensuring Dean will wipe the floor with Bush in 2004. :eyes:

CBS has a much a right to be wrong as the Dean supporters of DU.

[cosmicdot]

28. nah ... I'm kinda tired of polls myself ...

41% of registered voters (wherever, whatever) prefer a war supporter + 22% who want the anti-war = 63%

what do the other 37% want?

Democratic "primary" voters (whatever, wherever)

39% want anti-war
25% pro-war
=
64%

33% of some number ... either way

[killbotfactory]

34. Yeah... and he'll never raise any money...

and his anti-war support will fade when we defeat Saddam's regime and WMD's spring forth from the sands of Iraq...

and his internet based campaign is just a gimmick that will never replace regular, tried and true fundraising, and they'll never show up for Dean...

and Dean's showing on Russert was the deathblow to his campaign...

and the confederate flag flap proves Dean is a loose canon who nobody will vote for...

and he doesn't have any minority support...

and he'll never be able to work with the establishment...

and the Clinton's hate him...

and he's too angry to be elected...

and he won't have any southern support...

[RetroLounge]

49. Don't forget that he eats puppies too

eom

:)

[JVS]

35. I thought Clark supporters didn't believe the vast right wing media...

which is obviously conspiring to give Dean the nomination!

[JPace]

36. Deans anti war stance will not dominate his platform

once he is nominated. He will have IDEAS
on how all America should prosper in the
future and this is what will attract voters.

[bowens43]

38. Huh?

Let's see 72% of Democratic voters say they want a candidate who was against the war or it doesn't matter whether he opposed the war or not.

41% of REGISTERED VOTERS polled want a democratic nominee who supported the war. How many of those registered voters are Republicans? What makes you think they will vote for a Dem candidate under ANY situation.

This poll is meaningless. It sure as hell doesn't mean we need a product of the military in the oval office.

You're right though , it is bad news, in fact it's so bad, to call it 'news' is wrong.

[Northwind]

41. And of course

If this poll said this about anyone else, it would be an example of the whore media trying to push Dean.

Pathetic.

[edzontar]

42. I have had about enough of this stuff....

What purpose do these polls (or these posts?) serve.

For many ardent Clark supporters, Dean is the one man standing in the way of their man.

So we get bombarded with "Dean Can't Win," "Join the Stop Dean Movement," etc.

As I have said before--why not contribute something CONSTRUCTIVE to the debate?

Some informative discussion of Clark's qualifications and policies, perhaps?

A discussion of his qualities as a candidate?

But no.

Instead, we get this warmed over pablum about "Dean can't win," over and over and over again.

Well, Dean is beating Clark right now in every single poll of primary voters.

And he may beat Clark in the actual votes too...who knows?

In any event, it is WAY too soon to call the general election--its almpost a year away, last I checked...

[Padraig18]

45. It 'proves' nothing.

It's a cobbled-together excuse for an argument. :shrug:

[Forkboy]

46. Deans not my pick or favorite guy

but damn,the attacks on him are so friggin lame it's almost funny.

[Padraig18]

48. Ain't it the truth?

:eyes:

[RetroLounge]

50. Actually, a few of them were so lame today

that it actually was funny...

for example:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=24507

[Padraig18]

51. Some folks need to get a grip on logic, math, politics AND reality!

I've seen some incredibly tortured pieces of 'logic' posted here as convincing proof of why Gov. Dean can't/won't win. Like you, I've had to try hard not to burst out laughing. :eyes:

[mouse7]

52. Do You Believe in Miracles? YES.

I saw the whole game live (on TV) when the US Hockey Team beat the Russians. I saw Gary Hart come outta nowhere to nearly beat Mondale. I saw Clinton come back from basically from the morgue to be the one of the most popular Presidents in US History.

I also know that one of the most accurate indicators of the direction the stock market and the economy is to graph which directon the experts say the market and economy is going, and the DO THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT THEIR ADVICE SUGGESTS.

Now... you were saying...

[ozone_man]

56. I saw that game

and was reminded of it when I read this thread title. And yes, the Bush economists are full of sh*t, same as these CBS talking heads.

This election is going to surprise people as the electorate wakes from their trance-like state. Dr. Dean will be there shaking these folks to wake them up.

[rumguy]

54. What do you mean locked for punctuation?

[MoonRiver]

57. I've been wondering the same thing!

Punctuation?? :wtf:

[Imajika]

55. The writing is on the wall...

...for all to see.

This poll clearly doesn't "prove" Dean can't win, only that 11 months before the election almost any Democratic running would likely be destroyed by Bush in a general election.

Personally, it looks to me like Dean will win the nomination and go on to get crushed in November 04'. There is no point banging away on this anymore. Dean has run the best campaign so far, and unfortunantly, anger and rage has left a good portion of the base of Democratic Party blinded. We are going to nominate someone who is going to be known as anti-war and pro-tax. Either one of those might be enough to kill off any chance of victory in 2004, but both is a ticket to disaster.

I have to admit my despair has already begun. I know what is coming, many people on DU recognize the folly of a Dean nomination - but there is no point in continuing to bicker and drag our likely nominee down further. We must at least try to keep venom and invective to a minimum, since if we are too have even the slightest chance in November we will need to be completely unified.

I will be out of the country much of next year, but back in time to do some volunteer campaign work. I have a terrible fear of impending doom, but it won't be because I didn't get out and do my part to oust Bush.

Congrats so far to the Dean people, and though I think his nomination will be a tragic mistake, I will be hoping against hope I am proven wrong.

Imajika

[goforit]

61. The game isn't over till the fat lady sings!!!

LOL!!!!

Y'all have no faith!!!

[mouse7]

62. This poll is invalid. Data is skewed

As I said on the thread about this very same poll last night, the Dean data is waaay off. 10-18% off any other national poll out there. There is also an admission in the poll that the Democratic preference section has a much larger mrgin of error. All this invalidates all the conclusions of the poll.

[MoonRiver]

63. CBS rules! No lie.

:kick:

[TexasSissy]

64. Interesting.

[Hep]

65. How can I NOT believe the network that brought us

the show Dweebs?

Thanks for making it about MY guy. We love the attention.

[Lobo_13]

66. Blah blah blah blah

mumble mumble mumble

Anti-Dean rhetoric has officially become white noise.

[Walt Starr]

67. I would hardly call it "proof"

I believe Dean is the only hope out there for America. I firmly believe when the rubber hits the road after the convention, Dean will end up with an overwhelming victory in the election.

And finally, I firmly believe that no other Democratic candidate is electable, especially Clark.

[Tom Rinaldo]

69. I oppose all arguments that say Dean can't win

Of course Dean CAN win. Dean would be an infinitely better President than Bush, and I will not accept ANY argument that says there is no way the American public can be made to understand that. Dean can inspire people to support him, he does inspire people to support him. Mobilized supporters can do wonders to help a campaign get it's message across.

I accept good arguments that weigh the pros and cons of different Democratic Party candidates. Personally I believe that Clark has a BETTER chance of winning than does Dean, for various reasons that can and have been debated here and elsewhere. Those are healthy debates. It is unhealthy, however, for any Democrat to buy into a defeatist conclusion about one of our strongest candidates. Furthermore, it is divisive to be so dismissive to the supporters of Dean, who have already demonstrated an ability to accomplish other things that so many once said was impossible.

[mouse7]

70. 10TH THREAD FOR SKEWED CBS POLL: IT'S A BAD POLL

"The margin of error in this poll for Democratic primary voters is larger than the overall margin of error for the total sample: there were 244 registered voters who said they would vote in the Democratic primary in this survey."

THIS POLL IS BUSTED. YOU CANNOT HAVE AN ACCURATE SURVEY WITH ONLY 244 RESPONDENTS. CBS SAYS THAT THEMSELVES.

This poll has been getting reposted by the same people every day since it appeared. Every time the screwed up data gets pointed out and the thread immediately dies, but later in the day a new thread is posted to fool people.

This poll will be skewed the 25 or 67th time it's reposted. It's still busted when reposted. SO STOP REPOSTING IT!

[WiseMen]

72. Please RETRACT erroneous information you keep posting. CBS Result Valid

Varied polls and focus groups results point to same conclusion: Dean may win the primaries, but he does not have the precieved credentials and characteristics to win the GE against Bush.

In the CBS poll, the large margin of error only applies to results re. primary candidate choice from the 244 democratic voters.

Please refer to article footnote:



This CBS News Poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 799 adults interviewed by telephone December 21-22, 2003. 685 registered voters and 244 Democratic Primary Voters were interviewed. The margin of error due to sampling could be plus or minus four percentage points for results based on the entire sample. The error for registered voters could be plus or minus four points, and for Democratic primary voters it could be plus or minus six points.


© MMIII, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.



Either you do not understand survey methodology OR you feel that
since Dean is winning it doesn't matter that you constantly (11 times) spreads false information, apparently in support of his campaign. Is winning all that matters?

I respectfully ask you to look up the data and retract your constant posts on this matter.

[Fleshdancer]

71. Remember when Gore was going lose the popular vote but win the electoral?

It must be true because all the polls said so. :eyes: