What percentage of Dean's success is luck?

[tsipple]

Poll question: What percentage of Dean's success is luck?

"Luck" means pure random chance. Luck does not mean factors such as hard work, spotting issues and speaking to them, etc.

Question: What percentage of Dean's success is attributable to "luck"?

[vi5]

1. Some, but not much at all...

There's no doubt that hard work and a savvy campaign staff has played a huuuuuge part in this.

[Sagan]

2. Not sure how you would define "luck"..

I think that Dean took a conscious and calculated risk to vocally oppose the war. Had he been wrong, he would have been an irrelevant candidate, but then again if the Iraq War aftermath had gone just swimmingly, defying all logic and precedence, ANY Democratic candidate would have been irrelevant.

So it was a risk, but not really a risk, in my opinion. I put 50% luck mainly because so many things have come together for Dean's campaign. The justification of his anti-war stance, the complete incompetence of the Chimpministration in dealing with post-war Iraq and the rest of the world, his Internet fund-raising and web-presence paying off, etc.

I'm an ABB man, but I don't understand why so many here pretend Dean "lucked" into his current position. It was a fair strategy that has paid off, in my opinion.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

3. None but where is this question coming from?

The press coverage Dean gets isn't luck. It is calculated by a machine that believes he is the easiest to beat whether that is true or not.

The success he has had in using the internet and getting funds isn't luck. He created a network with meet-ups and created an infrastructure capitalizing on those who felt disenfranchised following Florida 2000 and the IWR vote and hundreds of thousands of Americans in the streets.

The fact that he got started months earlier than any of the other candidates isn't luck. He didn't have a current elective office to tend to.

What aspect is anyone claiming is luck?

He may not be my first choice candidate, but I really don't attribute his success to luck at all. He fills a gap in the current spectrum.

[Bombtrack]

4. Does GOP subversion of his opposition and help of him count as luck?

if so then a big percent

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

7. Well the humorous thing is Dean has his people out working for him

even at the bottom of his campaign, people are having meet-ups and coffees at their homes to promote their guy.

It is an avenue available to all the candidates. If one has their people out working rather than complaining, they are going to raise more of a stir.

[Patriot_Spear]

5. Groundwork and legwork baby...

Luck is not a factor.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

6. "Luck is the residue of design." - Branch Rickey.

[DinahMoeHum]

8. The "Deanies" bust theirs. . .to kick *'s. . .

and this basically creates it's own luck.

:kick:

[5thGenDemocrat]

9. Dedicated Clarkie here

And, even though I don't support Dean, I'd say about zero percent of his success is luck. It's about getting the supporters motivated and doing the hard work to get out in front of the voters -- and no one can say Dean hasn't done a swell job at that.
Merry Christmas, everybody.
John
Taking a well-deserved break from the candidate bashing.