Who Can Win Ohio For Us?

[rucky]

Ohio will be as important for us as Florida. 21 EVs vs. 25 for FL, but both states (questionably) went red last time. Either one would win it for us, assuming everything else goes as 2002. Between the two - I'm thinking we have the best chance of winning Ohio (economy/jobs/incumbent's brother is not Governor)

So who has the best chance at Ohio? Gephardt? Kucinich?

Who's campaigning the hardest over there? Is labor the big issue for that state? Ohio DUers?

Or maybe Florida is more winnable?

:shrug:

[Bombtrack]

1. Florida has 27

I'd say Clark would have the best shot, with Edwards and Kerry being close behind

They don't have middle class tax-raises in their platforms

I'm not familiar with individual metros(Cleveland, Cincinatti, Columbus etc) or Ohio politics extensivly, but I know it's enough of a swingstate to be won by Clark. Clinton won it, he can too.

On our side PA, MI, and WI are just as important

[rucky]

3. PA/MI/WI...

Why isn't the Midwest the absolute epicententer for our message/energy...everything? What's the preoccupation with the Red South?

You're right about the tax rollback not playing well in Peoria. But I still fail to see why Clark is the best match. Is it the Clinton factor, or just by default since Dean, Gephardt & Kucinich want to roll back all the * tax cuts?

[Bombtrack]

14. because we need to make the GOP work as hard for FL, AR, and LA

as they do for the midwest and west. Not ONLY a southernor can allow that, but a New Englander or Northeasterner would almost never allow that.

Dukakis wasn't crushed in the popular vote but he was in the electoral college

If you look at the guys with the best shot at the nom, it's 2 American dream southernors, 2 blue blood lib dems from arguably the 2 most left/lib states, and one bland big city midwest union hack career pol.



BTW Kucinich is AGAINST the middle class tax raise that Dean and Gephardt favor

[rucky]

29. ok...I think I'm beginning to get it

strap GOP resources in the south is good strategery. The only way to do that cost effectively & not at the expense of the Midwest is with a Southerner... We still must concentrate on the MW, tho. Clark has a better chance over Edwards (i know I'm going out on a limb here).

Do Ohioans give a * where the candidate is from? Doubt it.

Dean could still pull it off, IMO, but I would be viewing the results from my hospital bed, recovering from the heart attack I would get from his campaign.

All of this would be alot easier for me if I didn't agree with nearly everything that comes out of Kucinich's mouth.

[UrbScotty]

2. Anybody

Gore lost by four points there, even though he abandoned his campaigning there a month before the election.

[Patriot_Spear]

4. Diebold.

Unfortunately, the CEO of Diebold, Wally O'Dell, has already said he's rigging it for the republicans.

[rucky]

5. Well that's a conversation killer.

:cry:

All the more reason to hit Ohio HARD... and bring up that quote as often as possible.

[Patriot_Spear]

6. I agree 100%; I couldn't believe it when I read it.

Right afterwards I sent a letter to my State Sec of State (a Dem), asking him why on earth we were using this crooked company for our voting machines.

[Patriot_Spear]

7. Check out any of the BBV threads or go to www.BBV.org

Even Ohio has had to respond to this.

[Toucano]

8. The only ones who've visited yet

That I am aware of are Gephardt, Clark, and of course Kucinich.

Columbus Mayor on Clark's team (from an email):

Wes Clark Welcomes Aboard Mayor Michael Coleman As Ohio State Chair
Little Rock - Today, Wes Clark proudly announced that Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman is joining the Clark campaign as a Senior Advisor and the Ohio State Chair:
"Michael Coleman is a remarkable man and a remarkable mayor -- and I am honored to have his endorsement today.
Since he took office, he's created thousands of jobs - jobs we desperately need under a President who's lost 3 million of them. He's started after school programs for thousands of children across the city - programs we desperately need under a President who's left so many children behind. And he's working hard to keep the streets of Columbus safe.
Today, Columbus is ranked as one of the nation's hottest job markets - and one of the best cities in America to live and work.
When it comes to homeland security, Mayor Coleman believes, as I do, that our cities are a key line of defense. And like me, he thinks it's outrageous that our President hasn't provided cities with the funds they need to keep us safe. He's been leading the fight to turn this around. And I'm proud to be with him every step of the way.
I'm looking forward to getting Mayor Coleman out there on the campaign trail with me - from Columbus, Ohio to Columbia, South Carolina - and all across America."
Mayor Coleman joins Clark's team of Ohio supporters, including Cuyahoga County Treasurer James Rokakis and Montgomery County Treasurer Hugh Quill.

[dsc]

11. Dean has visited at least twice

once giving a speech to the Ohio state convention and once for fundraisers and other events in Cleveland and Columbus.

[Toucano]

16. Thanks.

I missed those.

[Patriot_Spear]

19. Thanks for keeping it honest! n/t

[eileen from OH]

43. Yeah, but. . .

The Ohio was a fly-in/fly-out with no public rally and all the rest were private, pay-a-bunch fund raisers.

It's been a constant whine of mine that he hasn't paid nearly enough attention to Ohio.

eileen from OH

[dsc]

9. I think Dean has our best shot

for two reasons. One our party aparatus here is dismal and will be worthless which necessitates a good grassroots organization. I also think Dean will do much better in our Appalacian counties and counties like mine which are Democratic on paper but were either carried by Bush or much closer than they should have been due to guns. Any of our candidates can carry Ohio but I do think Dean is best able to. BTW this is a change in my thinking in that I figured Ohio was a lost cause but since Taft is about as popular as the plague that is changing.

[rucky]

12. Who's more appealing to the gun-owners...Dean or Clark?

Dean for his stance, or Clark for...well, he's Clark.

Didn't realize that was a big issue in Ohio. Is it enough to counteract the *percieved* tax hike?

[dsc]

15. It is a huge issue in Ohio

Rural Ohioans are big fans of guns. For some voters it trumps all. And they do know who has what position on guns. There are lots of things one can call the gun nuts but ignorant on who is and isn't in favor of position z on guns isn't one.

[Patriot_Spear]

17. Dean had a resonable firearms policy as Governor...

The NRA gave him an A+ rating for it. He has a commonsense approach- which is exactly the right course to take.

[Bombtrack]

22. Tell the family member of a gunshot victim how "commonsense" the NRA is

50 percent of Americans want stricter gun laws, 10 percent want less strict.

And the US government should give the public what it wants, even if it means standing up to the biggest republican party contributing special interest group, the NRA

[Patriot_Spear]

25. Don't twist my words.

Dean's policies do not equate with the NRA.

[dsc]

28. If they got up off their asses and voted

like the NRA members do, then maybe they would get what they wanted.

On edit, the pro gun forces as wrong on the issue as they are come by their political power honestly. They earn it by delivering votes. The gun control side doesn't.

[Bombtrack]

30. the biggest/most important political group is pro-gun control

white suburban, middle class, college educated, moms and dads who regard themselves as independants. Also known as soccer moms and dads(the phrase is rarely used correctly). They tend pro-gun control and pro-choice but anti-tax increase and realist on foriegn policy.

[dsc]

33. Well where the Hell are they

I have literally heard of exactly one person lose his or her seat in Congress for being too pro gun. That was whoever Carolyn McCarthy beat. I can name several dozen from 1994 alone who lost theirs for being to pro gun control. No matter what they believe they simply don't vote and thus don't get what they want.

[Bombtrack]

37. If you can name them why don't you

.

[dsc]

40. Off the top of my head

Eric Fingerhut, Congressman from Ohio 1993 to 1995, Jack Brooks chair of house judiciary several term Congressman. Those are two and I could keep going. But I have alredy doubled the number that have lost your way.

[goobergunch]

54. FYI: Fingerhut is running for Senate in 2004

However, he is a heavy underdog.

[dsc]

55. yeah

he got elected to the state Senate after his loss and now is running for Senate againt Voinovich. He is a massive underdog but a great guy.

[Bombtrack]

20. defintly Clark, and not all gun-owners are gun -nuts

which is what NRA supporters are. And 99 percent of them would NEVER vote Howard Brush Dean.

No matter how many starbucks and sushi liberals he tells that "those types" will just love him.

[dsc]

21. Well I live here

and I know them, and they do not trust Clark and do trust Dean. Maybe these are liars. They have a certain minimum standard and Dean meets it on this issue. Not all gun owners but the ones we have a shot at.

[Patriot_Spear]

23. Dean's NRA rating as Governor has a calming effect on those types...

I live in the South, it's a big issue down here. Whenever I talk about Dean's good NRA marks, it sparks some interest in them.

[Bombtrack]

24. the NRA is the biggest republican special interest group for a reason

the gun-nuts who populate it also without much dissent are right-wing on most important issues. They tend to be anti-tax increase, which Dean is the opposite of, and religious, while Dean does not even belong to a church.

[Patriot_Spear]

26. I didn't know you were a Dean supporter?

n/t

[dsc]

27. that is utter nonsense

The are united on guns. The NRA has endorsed my Democratic state rep not once, not twice, but three times. They endorsed his predecessor not once, not twice, not three times, not four times, but five seperate times. They have endorsed Ed Jerse, the rep from Euclid. There are many, many NRA members who either agree with us on many issues or don't give a rats hiney about other things. And we induldge in your thought process at our deep peril. Again, apparently unlike you, I actually know some of these people.

[Bombtrack]

32. I'm not talking about whatever State apparattus gives endorsements to whom

I'm talking about the NRA rank-and-file supporters, the people who replaced the Christian Coallition as the main republican footsoldiers.

[dsc]

34. the members vote on guns

these people win their races. Jerse is one for one, Distel is 3 for 3, and Boggs is 5 for 5. I know that in the fantasies of people who don't know gun owners they are all right wing whackos but many are pro choice, somewhat pro gay, and agree with us on economics. But they value guns above those things and thus vote against their interests.

[Bombtrack]

35. "Us" on economics, I wouldn't put "us" in the same category

I don't think we agree on economics. I don't think that proposing an income tax raise on the middle class and another 90 billion plus in healthcare spending is a good idea, politically or policy, particularly when you say that people will go for it because Dean's a "fiscal conservative", well the voters aren't all as smart as they should be but they're smart enough to know that they won't support that policy and that Dean isn't a fiscal conservative.

[dsc]

36. whom do you support?

To my knowledge not one candidate is proposing spending less on health care than Dean.

[Bombtrack]

48. then you obviously haven't bothered to research the other candidates

of course that seems to be common among Dean supporters.

Edwards plan costs about 60 billion dollars
Clarks about 70 billion
And I believe Kerry's is about 5 billion less than Dean's


I don't know what Liebermans plan is

[dsc]

50. Kerry's is more not less

I want a site for Clark's and Edwards. You have heard of backing things up. Of course I find most Dean opponents haven't so that isn't to unusual.

[Bombtrack]

53. Well I wasn't sure on Kerry and I knew one of them was about 5 bill more

here are the links to Edwards and Clark, I was actually over on Edwards by about 7 billion

http://clark04.com/issues/healthcare/
"The plan would cost a net $695 billion over the ten years from 2004-13"

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/healthcare-fact-sheet.asp
The Edwards Plan covers approximately 21 million Americans at a cost of about $53 billion per year. His cost containment measures will save roughly $17 billion per year. Edwards pays for his entire plan with specific policies he has already proposed.

[dsc]

57. Edwards starts several years later

which makes his yearly cost higher than just dividing by 10. 5 would be fairer. And I would think that his requirement of buying insurance would be worse to you than simply spending money.

[Bombtrack]

58. no, I didn't devide by 10 at all

It costs 53 billion per year, that's the plan. Did you even read the plan?

[Jerseycoa]

39. Is that right?

I don't live there, but I have read where the Gore endorsement has somewhat upset the gun vote applecart.

[dsc]

41. heard it via how

you have some link to back this up. Been here recently?

[Jerseycoa]

56. As it happens I don't

I am glad to answer your question. A friend from Western PA, who is a hunter, was here and brought along an article he thought I would be interested in. He kept it. Believe it, don't believe it, I don't mind, but the snide shot was unnecessary, if predictable.

[Jerseycoa]

38. Dean

Go read the Justice/Public Safety forum a bit. Clark opposes concealed carry laws and Dean presents himself as favorable to them based on states rights and the Second Amendment. Dean also has a longtime favorable rating with the NRA. Otherwise, I don't know if they are very different in their views on this. But Dean tops Clark.

[Patriot_Spear]

10. http://www.ohiofordean.org/ Dean is going strong in Ohio!

http://www.ohiofordean.org/

[Patriot_Spear]

13. Dean's Ohio Endorsment!

Ohio Endorsements For Dean Current / Former Politicians

Howard Metzenbaum - Former Senator
Tim Ryan - Congressman, District 17
Louis Escobar - Pres., Toledo City Council
Daniel Sferra - Oh State Rep. District 64
John O'Grady - Franklin County Clerk of Court
Mary Jo Kilroy - Franklin County Commissioner
Steve Chaffin - Fmr Marion County Dem Party Chair & Committeeman (D-Marion)
Vaughn Beams - Ward Leader (D-Northridge)
Dave Griesmeyer - Committeeman (D-Kettering)
Mike Nelson - Committeeman (D-Dayton)
Adam Duberstein - '02 State School Board Cand. & Committeeman (D-Clayton)
Judy Armstrong - Committeewoman (D-Englewood)
Gabby Williamson - '02 State Rep Cand. & Committeewoman (D-Dayton)
Andrew Brody - Committeeman (D-Huber Heights)
Mike Bock - Committeeman (D-Kettering)
Michael Cole - Committeeman (D-Fairfield)
Mort Meier - Committeeman (D-Hamilton)
Beverly Smith - City Councilwoman (D-Clayton)
Charles W. Sanders - Former Mayor (D-Waynesville)
Jeff Hardenbrook - '02 Congressional Candidate (D-Dayton)
Sarah Cobbe - Committeewoman (D-Oakwood)
Marc Relthford - Committeeperson - (D-Dayton)/Downtown Dayton Priority Board member
Gene Branstool - former Ohio Democratic Party Chair
Citizens

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Alda M. Tavares - Chesterland
Ronald J. Delanis - Chesterland
Lynn Worpenber - Cincinnati
Marian Harris - Columbus
Jonathan Rosenberg - Solon
Bill Bridges - Cincinnati
Stephanie Studebaker - Dayton
Randi Mathieu - Greater Cincinnati
Larry Mrus - Warren
Martin Alves - Cleveland
Matt Naugle - Avon Lake
Jeffrey Campbell - Dayton
Carol Q. Haas - Kent
Ellen Pettey - Athens
Chris Cunningham - Maumee
Mandy Miller - Columbus
David Mann - Toledo
Nick Benson - Marietta
David Griesmeyer - Kettering
Kevin McCormick - Cincinnati
Patricia McCormick - Cincinnati

[farmbo]

18. Dean is best suited...and best organized... to win Ohio

Ohio's economy is still in the tank...100,000 jobs lost under Bush...most from the manufacturing sector.

According to the state Democratic chair,Denny White, Dean has the best organization in the state. And with the AFSCME and SEIU endorsements, he has far more boots on the ground.

Dean knows Ohio will be the ultimate battleground and has said as much to the New York Times. He will NOT pull out of Ohio early as the Gore campaign did in 2000.

Peace.

[cowpie]

31. As an Ohioan

I think the only one that could possibly win here is Lieberman. Spin it as much as you like, but Ohio is very quickly becoming part of the "Solid South." It just goes to show you that you cannot ignore and neglect blue dogs indefinitley.

[revcarol]

42. DK.

No question about it.

[Lady President]

44. Another Ohioan

I think that Gephardt or Clark have the best chance here, but I've heard some favorable comments about Kerry too.

Mayor Coleman of Columbus finally endorsed Clark after six months of rumors that he would. If the other rumors I hear are true, Mayor Campbell of Cleveland is leaning toward Dean and Mayor Luken of Cincinnati is a Kerry supporter. I think it's safe to say there isn't a strong push toward any single candidate yet.

I don't think a pro-gun stance is the right direction. Yes, there are a lot of hunters and gun owners in Ohio, but they're going to vote for Bush. This voting block tends to live in the rural areas and we need to focus on independents and Dems. in the major cities.

In the past week I've had three strangers come up to me after seeing my Kerry pin and express ABD thoughts. None of them had picked a candidate yet, so I doubt their ABD sentiment is set in stone. All three said they'd vote for Bush before Dean. I'm hoping local supporters will take it down a notch if Dean gets the nomination and the ABD sentiment here will pass.

[dsc]

45. Some of the most Democratic counties

in the state are the rural ones on the Ohio river and up to Ashtabula County. Both Congressman Ryan and Congressman Strickland are elected in overwhelmingly rural, pro gun, districts. Gun control advocates don't vote on that issue which is why we lose votes on this issue.

[Lady President]

46. Not all those areas are rural

I don't think you can count all the counties from the Ohio Valley to Ashtabula Co. rural. Clearly, Mahoning and Columbiana Co. are rust belt, pro-union areas, rather than rural pro-gun areas. All of the counties in this region are much more concerned about jobs than anything else.

The goal in Ohio has to be to register people in the large cities and educate them about voting rights. (In Columbus groups have posted signs all over downtown saying that anyone who has overdue rent or utility bills will be arrested at the voting precincts.)

I can't speak for everyone who is a gun control advocate, but if this election wasn't so incredibly important, I would never vote for anyone with a positive NRA rating.

[dsc]

47. Ryan was endorsed by the NRA

as was Trafficant. Yes there are cities in those disticts, though not Strickland's, and they don't vote on gun control or else they wouldn't have NRA endorsed legislators.

[Lady President]

51. Yellow dog Youngstown

I don't think we want to compare any of our candidates to Trafficant. :) Youngstown and vicinity vote for anyone with a "D" behind their name regardless of their endorsements. This area will vote for any of the candidates.

I just don't think a pro-gun platform will translate well in central Ohio, especially considering we have someone using the outer belt as target practice. Columbus could really go either way and someone perceived as moderate will have a better chance. (Notice I used "perceived" as moderate because anyone getting info from the local news will not know who is liberal or not.)

[dsc]

52. In case you forgot there was a primary this time

Ryan knocked off a sitting Congressman who outspent him wildly.

[GOPBasher]

49. Clark can.

Assuming it's a fair election.

[ClarkGraham2004]

59. As a Clark fan, I actually like Dean's chances in Ohio

He can sort of come off as a rolled up sleeved, blue collar fire-breather for the everyman etc. He's also from the north. He can play the trade card there well I think.

Ohio is so important. I think we have a better shot in Ohio than in Florida honestly.

[Deesh]

60. Ohio Goes Blue in 04...

If Gore had stood up and fought for it, he might have won Ohio and with it, the presidency. But he surrendered and slipped out the back door. Ohio went for Bush by a relatively close margin, and the White House went to the Republicans.

A strong Democratic ticket with consistent statewide support will carry Ohio for the Democrats in 04. Bush is unpopular in the northeast -- jobs are gone there and won't return. People aren't happy. The southwest corner is a lost cause -- Republicans there still think Nixon is in office. But from Columbus north and especially northeast, the Democrats turn the Buckeye State blue.